MORE POLLING DATA ON RECALL REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002145

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: MORE POLLING DATA ON RECALL REFERENDUM

REF: CARACAS 2087

CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D
)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) ON JUNE 23, GREENBERG, QUINLAN, ROSNER RESEARCH INC.
(GQR) RELEASED THE RESULTS OF ITS NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION
STUDY (REF). COLLECTED AFTER THE REPAROS PROCESS, THE
FIGURES SHOW THAT NATIONAL OPINION IS SPLIT 48-TO-48 ON
WHETHER TO RECALL PRESIDENT CHAVEZ. NATIONAL OPINION WAS
FAVORABLE REGARDING CHAVEZ,S POLICIES TO ADDRESS POVERTY IN
VENEZUELA, WITH 62% OF PARTICIPANTS AGREEING THAT THE CHAVEZ
ADMINISTRATION IS HELPING THE POOR. GQR DATA ALSO INDICATED
THAT MIRANDA GOVERNOR ENRIQUE MENDOZA WAS THE MOST FAVORED
OPPOSITION CANDIDATE FOR A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT THAT
MENDOZA WAS TRAILING IN AN ELECTION AGAINST CHAVEZ 52-TO-40.
POLLING RESEARCH COMPANY MERCANALISIS RELEASED SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FIGURES THAT STATED 54% OF VENEZUELANS WERE IN
FAVOR OF RECALLING CHAVEZ IN THE REFERENDUM AND 33% WERE
OPPOSED. MINISTER OF COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION JESSE
CHACON HAS ASSERTED THAT THE MERCANALISIS DATA ARE FALSE AND
HAS TOUTED FIGURES BY THE POLLING COMPANY DATOS, WHICH SHOW
CHAVEZ WINNING THE REFERENDUM 51-TO-39. END SUMMARY.

-------------- ---
THE GQR POLL: THE REFERENDUM AND APPROVAL RATING
-------------- ---


2. (SBU) ON JUNE 23, GREENBERG, QUINLAN, ROSNER RESEARCH
INC. (GQR) RELEASED THE RESULTS OF ITS NATIONAL PUBLIC
OPINION STUDY. GQR CONDUCTED ITS POLLING IN FOCUS GROUPS
AFTER CHAVEZ AGREED TO CONVOKE THE REFERENDUM, BUT HAS NOT
INDICATED HOW MANY PARTICIPANTS WERE INVOLVED. THE GQR
POLLING DATA SHOWED THAT NATIONAL OPINION IS SPLIT EVENLY
48-TO-48 ON WHETHER TO RECALL PRESIDENT CHAVEZ. GQR FIGURES
ALSO INDICATE THAT CHAVEZ HAS A 53-TO-45 PERCENT APPROVAL
RATING, BUT THAT NATIONAL OPINION IS MORE EVENLY DIVIDED OVER
WHETHER OR NOT CHAVEZ IS LEADING VENEZUELA IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION, 42% APPROVAL TO 40% DISAPPROVAL.

--------------
THE GQR POLL: CHAVEZ AND THE POOR
--------------


3. (SBU) ON ISSUES REGARDING THE VENEZUELAN POOR, CHAVEZ
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER PUBLIC OPINION FIGURES.
SIXTY-TWO PERCENT OF THOSE PARTICIPANTS POLLED BY GQR AGREED
THAT THE CHAVEZ ADMINISTRATION IS HELPING THE POOR, WHILE
ONLY 36% DISAGREED. ADDITIONALLY, GQR FIGURES INDICATED
CHAVEZ,S SOCIAL WELFARE MISSIONS HAVE 58-TO-38 PERCENT
APPROVAL RATING. WHEN THE GQR POLLING DATA ON THE RECALL
REFERENDUM WAS BROKEN DOWN INTO FIVE INCOME GROUPS, THE TOP
FOUR INCOME STRATA WERE IN FAVOR OF RECALLING CHAVEZ.
HOWEVER, CHAVEZ WON IN THE LOWEST INCOME GROUP, 59 TO 38
PERCENT.

--------------
THE GQR POLL: MENDOZA AND THE OPPOSITION
--------------


4. (SBU) THE GQR POLLING DATA INCLUDES FIGURES FOR A
POST-REFERENDUM PRIMARY FOR OPPOSITION CANDIDATES, WITH
MIRANDA STATE GOVERNOR ENRIQUE MENDOZA LEADING WITH 40%,
FOLLOWED BY PRIMERO JUSTICIA PARTY LEADER JULIO BORGES WITH
24%. IN ADDITION TO LEADING PRIMARY POLLING FIGURES, MENDOZA
HAS A 52% APPROVAL RATING AND A 34% DISAPPROVAL RATING.
HOWEVER, GQR FIGURES FOR A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETWEEN
CHAVEZ AND MENDOZA SHOW THAT CHAVEZ HAS A COMFORTABLE LEAD AT
52-TO-40.

--------------
OTHER POLLS
--------------


5. (SBU) OTHER COMPANIES HAVE RELEASED POLLING DATA WITH

CARACAS 00002145 002 OF 002

ARE IN FAVOR OF RECALLING
CHAVEZ AND 44% ARE OPPOSED. FOR FIGURES RATING THE
PRESIDENT'S PERFORMANCE, CHAVEZ DID NOT PERFORM AS WELL AS HE
DID IN THE GQR POLL, WITH ONLY A 37% APPROVAL RATING.
ADDITIONALLY, 52% PARTICIPANTS POLLED BY CONSULTORES 21
INDICATED THAT, UNDER CHAVEZ, VENEZUELA WAS CURRENTLY HEADED
IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. CONSULTORES 21 CONDUCTED ITS POLLING
AFTER THE REPAROS PROCESS AND HAD 20,000 PARTICIPANTS.


6. (U) ON JUNE 27, MERCANALISIS RELEASED POLLING FIGURES
THAT STATED 54% OF VENEZUELANS WERE IN FAVOR OF RECALLING
CHAVEZ IN THE REFERENDUM AND 33% WERE OPPOSED. MERCANALISIS
FIGURES ALSO INDICATED THAT CHAVEZ HAS A 51-TO-42 PERCENT
APPROVAL RATING. MERCANALISIS CONDUCTED ITS POLLING AFTER
THE REPAROS PROCESS AND INTERVIEWED 900 CITIZENS IN
VENEZUELA'S FIVE LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS.

--------------
GOV REACTION
--------------


7. (U) MINISTER OF COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION JESSE
CHACON HAS PUBLICLY ASSERTED THAT THE POLLING DATA PRESENTED
BY MERCANALISIS ARE FALSE AND CRITICIZED PRIVATE MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR PUBLICIZING THEM. CHACON CONTENDED THAT THE
FIGURES PRESENTED BY THE POLLING RESEARCH COMPANIES DATOS AND
INDAGA, WHICH SHOW CHAVEZ WINNING THE REFERENDUM 51-TO-39
PERCENT AND 51-TO-42 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY, REPRESENTED MORE
TRUTHFUL DATA. CHACON ALSO POINTED OUT THAT EVEN THE
&FABRICATED8 MERCANALISIS FIGURES STILL SHOW THAT CHAVEZ
HAS A POSITIVE APPROVAL RATING, WHICH HE TOUTED AS AN
INDICATION THAT CHAVEZ WILL WIN THE REFERENDUM.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) THE POLLS DIFFER, BUT WE CAN SEE THAT CHAVEZ IS NOT
AS BADLY WOUNDED BY THE CONVOCATION OF THE REFERENDUM AS THE
OPPOSITION HAD HOPED. THE SOCIOECONOMIC BREAK DOWN OF THE
GQR REFERENDUM FIGURES IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE ALTHOUGH CHAVEZ
IS ONLY FAVORED IN THE LOWEST INCOME GROUPING, HE STILL IS
TIED IN THE OVERALL POLL. OPPOSITION LEADERS HOPE THAT THERE
IS SOME AMOUNT OF "FEAR FACTOR" IN THESE NUMBERS THAT
PREVENTS ANTI-CHAVISTAS IN POOR AREAS FROM EXPRESSING THEIR
SENTIMENTS. ALTHOUGH THIS COULD HAVE MERIT, CHAVEZ'S CONCERN
FOR THE POOR IS SEEN AS GENUINE AND HE STILL MAINTAINS A
FAVORABLE OPINION RATING IN NEARLY ALL OF THE POLLING
FIGURES. THE SIMPLE FACT IS THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS A REAL
HORSE RACE ON ITS HANDS AND NEEDS TO GET TO WORK.
SHAPIRO

NNNN
2004CARACA02145 - CONFIDENTIAL