CNE SETS AUGUST 15 FOR CHAVEZ RECALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001950 SIPDIS NSC FOR C. BARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: CNE SETS AUGUST 15 FOR CHAVEZ RECALL CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASON 1.4 (D) . -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) FRANCISCO CARRASQUERO, PRESIDENT OF VENEZUELA'S NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL, OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED JUNE 8 THAT OPPONENTS OF PRESIDENT CHAVEZ HAD OBTAINED SUFFICIENT SIGNATURES TO PETITION FOR A REFERENDUM TO RECALL THE PRESIDENT. ACCORDING TO THE CNE TALLIES, THE OPPOSITION OBTAINED 2,541,636 SIGNATURES, 105,533 MORE THAN THE 20% OF THE ELECTORATE NEEDED. CARRASQUERO SET AUGUST 15 AS THE DATE FOR THE VOTE, AND ADDED THAT THE BALLOTING WOULD BE COMPUTERIZED. THE OPPOSITION HAD STRONGLY FAVORED AN AUGUST 8 DATE AND MANUAL BALLOTING. COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA NEGOTIATOR FELIPE MUJICA (PRESIDENT OF THE MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM -- MAS) CRITICIZED THE CNE FOR BACKTRACKING ON THE AGREED AUGUST 8 DATE, BUT ASSERTED THAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD TURN OUT MILLIONS OF VOTERS TO RECALL THE PRESIDENT REGARDLESS OF THE DATE. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) IN A NATIONALLY BROADCAST (CADENA) STATEMENT JUNE 8, NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED THE OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE OPPOSITION'S PETITION FOR A REFERENDUM TO RECALL PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ WHICH BEGAN WITH THE FOUR-DAY SIGNATURE DRIVE AT THE END OF NOVEMBER 2003. CARRASQUERO REPORTED THAT THE OPPOSITION OBTAINED 2,541,636 VALID SIGNATURES, 105,533 MORE THAN THE 20% OF THE ELECTORATE NEEDED TO CONVOKE THE REFERENDUM. IN THE MAY 27-31 APPEALS PROCESS, CARRASQUERO SAID, 773,755 VENEZUELANS CONFIRMED THEIR SIGNATURES, WHILE 91,669 RETRACTED THEIR SIGNATURES FROM THE PETITION. (OPPOSITION TABULATED RESULTS SHOWED FEWER CONFIRMED SIGNATURES, 754,397 AND MORE RETRACTED SIGNATURES 95,777.) ¶3. (U) CARRASQUERO ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE REFERENDUM WOULD TAKE PLACE AUGUST 15. THE CNE PRESIDENT ALSO SAID THE BALLOTING WOULD BE COMPUTERIZED. CHAVEZ OPPONENTS HAD ADVOCATED FOR THE REFERENDUM TO BE HELD AUGUST 8, ARGUING THAT AUGUST 15 IS TO CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD DATE OF AUGUST AFTER WHICH THE VICE PRESIDENT WOULD TAKE OVER IN CASE THEY ARE ABLE TO REVOKE CHAVEZ INSTEAD OF THERE BEING NEW ELECTIONS. THEY ALSO ARGUED THAT COMPUTERIZED BALLOTING WAS NOT NECESSARY IN A SIMPLE VOTE SUCH AS THIS, THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNTRIED AND SUBJECT TO MANIPULATION, AND THAT RISK OF SYSTEMS FAILURE OR FAULTY PREPARATIONS COULD PUSH THE REFERENDUM BEYOND AUGUST 15. ¶4. (U) GOV OFFICIALS HAVE NOT REACTED PUBLICLY TO CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT. MIRANDA STATE GOV. ENRIQUE MENDOZA, SPEAKING FOR THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA JUNE 9, TOLD REPORTERS THE DATE MADE NO DIFFERENCE BECAUSE THE OPPOSITION WAS PREPARED TO WIN. "THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY RESPONSE WILL ALWAYS BE THE SAME: THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO HAVE A NEW PRESIDENT." MENDOZA ECHOED COMMENTS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT BY COORDINADORA NEGOTIATOR FELIPE MUJICA (PRESIDENT OF MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM -- MAS). MUJICA SAID THE SETBACKS ON THE DATE AND COMPUTERIZATION WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE OPPOSITION WAS PREPARED TO DEFEAT CHAVEZ ON AUGUST 15 WITH MILLIONS OF VOTES. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE OFFICIAL RESULTS BROADLY DEFINED THE PARAMETERS FOR THE RECALL. A ROUGH AND TUMBLE CAMPAIGN WILL OCCUPY CENTER STAGE AND PUBLIC ATTENTION. THE MOST IMPORTANT CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS WHETHER THE GOV CAN AND WILL ENSURE A FAIR BALLOTING. WE KNOW THE INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS HAVE BEEN IN THE GOV'S CROSSHAIRS AND THEIR PARTICIPATION WILL BE CRUCIAL. THEY CERTAINLY DEMONSTRATED THEIR IMPORTANCE DURING THE APPEALS PROCESS. THE USE OF AN INNOVATIVE, UNTRIED COMPUTERIZED SYSTEM FOR THIS PIVOTAL EVENT MERITS CLOSE ATTENTION ALSO. ALTHOUGH THE PAPER BACK-UP IT EMPLOYS IS A RECOGNIZED SAFEGUARD, THE ROOM FOR MANIPULATION AND FRAUD IS AMPLE, AND THUS UNDERSCORES THE NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL OBESRVATION. CARACAS 00001950 002 OF 002 RES, WHILE 91,6 2004CARACA01950 - CONFIDENTIAL