CHAVEZ AGREES TO RECALL REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001908

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ AGREES TO RECALL REFERENDUM


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced June 3
that its preliminary calculations indicated that the
opposition had collected enough signatures to activate the
recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez. In a
national radio and television broadcast (cadena) from
Miraflores Palace a few hours later, Chavez conceded the
"clear tendencies" of the CNE's projections, claimed that
this really was a GOV moral victory, and challenged the
opposition to do "political battle." Some Chavez supporters
reacted violently while others reluctantly accepted the
results, reiterating charges of opposition fraud. The
Coordinadora Democratica (CD) released its numbers -- with a
greater margin of victory -- and called on the CNE to set the
referendum for August 8, a date agreed to verbally during the
signature appeals negotiations. Delivering the preliminary
results, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez did not set a date for
the recall vote. Both sides called their followers to mass
marches in Caracas, the opposition on June 5 and GOV on June

6. Chavez has taken the high road, admittedly his version of
it, and now seems ready to take on the opposition personally
in the referendum campaign. End summary.

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CNE Announces Probable Presidential Recall
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2. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge
Rodriguez announced June 3 that the CNE's preliminary
calculations indicated that the opposition had collected
2,451,821 signatures, just 15,738 over the 2,436,083 needed
to activate the recall referendum against President Hugo
Chavez. Rodriguez did not set a date for the referendum,
which the rules say must be done when final results are
announced. CNE President Francisco Carrasquero said on May 2
that if the opposition collected enough signatures via the
appeals process, the referendum could take place on August 8.
Press reports say CNE technicians have proposed moving the
date to August 15, four days before the date when the
possibility of replacing a recalled Chavez via elections
expires. Rodriguez also announced that nine opposition
deputies will definitely face a recall vote.

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Opposition Claims Wider Margin
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3. (U) With the go-ahead from Rodriguez, the Coordinadora
Democractica (CD) released its results that showed the
opposition had collected 2,569,584 signatures, 133,501 over
the threshold. CD Coordinator and Miranda State Governor
Enrique Mendoza declared a "moral victory" and thanked
opposition parties, civil society, and the international
community, including OAS SYG Cesar Gaviria and former
President Jimmy Carter, for their support. Mendoza called on
the CNE to respect the August 8 date for the referendum,
saying the opposition would reject any attempt by the GOV to
delay the referendum past August 19.

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Chavez Accepts the Challenge
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4. (U) A few hours after the CNE announcement, President
Chavez addressed the nation (cadena) June 3 from Miraflores
Palace. He rejected he had been defeated and accepted the
referendum, conceding the "clear tendencies" of the CNE's
projections. Calling the CNE's announcement a victory for
"participatory democracy," he recalled that it was he who
first proposed the recall referendum be included in the 1999
Constitution. Surrounded by portraits and statues of Simon
Bolivar, Christ, and Venezuelan military figures, Chavez made
historical analogies to his struggle against the opposition.

Chavez recounted the challenges faced by his administration,
accusing the USG of conspiring to overthrow him, and
challenged the opposition to prepare for a new Battle of
Santa Ines. (During Venezuela's Federal Wars, Gen. Ezequiel
Zamora defeated the opposition's army through a series of
strategic retreats.) Addressing a widescreen television with
images of thousands of supporters, Chavez told his people
(the screen) that "this is just a new battle, and what awaits
us is a new victory." After the broadcast, Chavez circulated
briefly among the crowd outside.

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Chavista Reaction Mixed
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5. (U) Prior to the President's acceptance of the referendum,
Chavez supporters railed against the CNE's decision. Armed
groups allegedly linked to the GOV (the pro-Chavez website
aporrea said the Tupamaros had taken credit) reacted
violently in downtown Caracas on June 2, leaving one person
dead and several injured, including opposition Deputy Rafael
Marin (septel). (After his speech, Chavez denounced violence
"wherever it comes from" and called on all parties to
maintain peace.) CNE directors Jorge Rodriguez (pro-Chavez)
and Sobella Mejias (pro-opposition) traded allegations June
2-3 about some 15,800 deceased persons that had not been
removed from the electoral registry prior to the appeals
process. Chavez supporters allege the opposition falsified
identity cards in the names of the dead people and sent
impostors to make the appeals. Chavez supporters asserted it
was an injustice that the margin of victory announced by the
CNE was just under the number of supposed deceased persons.

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Both Sides Plan Mass Marches, June 5-6
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6. (C) The GOV and opposition called for marches in Caracas
to support their respective "victories." The opposition
plans to march on June 5, the GOV on June 6. The opposition
also plans to hold marches in other cities June 6, according
to Solidaridad Deputy Alejandro Armas. Armas predicted to
poloff June 4 the opposition marches would have large
turnouts. He said that turnouts of the opposition and
Chavista marches would be good indicators of the popular
support each side has for the referendum.

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Comment
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7. (C) Chavez's acceptance of the referendum is a clear
victory for the referendum and a wise political move,
especially with the OAS General Assembly just three days
away. Chavez believes his embrace of the referendum will
save his image as a constitutional democrat, and exonerate
the beleaguered CNE as a trustworthy institution. His speech
was pure hypocrisy, given the six months of delay he forced
on the process. He sought to stain the opposition's victory
with fraud allegations not only to steal the momentum from
the CD, but also to mollify radical elements within his own
movement. He made clear there will be no more middle men,
that he personally would defeat the opposition at the ballot
box. This was his winning formula for reaching office, and
may be his best bet now given the apparent failing of his
political machinery -- the Comando Ayacucho -- to save him
from the referendum. Up to now, the GOV probably has not
utilized its full capacity to boost Chavez's political
popularity (and deflate that of the opposition). Chavez now
appears ready to try.


8. (C) Why did Chavez give in? We believe it was the
OAS/Carter Center observation efforts, in large part, boosted
by the Group of Friends and other countries; the perception
that the truth would come out, and that opposition elements
would use the lack of democratic options to justify violence;
and Chavez's belief -- call it vanity -- that once again he
can win big at the polls.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA01908 - CONFIDENTIAL