SIGNATURES APPEALS UPDATE: MAY 30

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001861 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: SIGNATURES APPEALS UPDATE: MAY 30 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Venezuelans turned out in lesser numbers on the last day of presidential signature (May 30) appeals. Partial results indicate the opposition collected enough appeals to activate the referendum. There were violent confrontations between Chavez sympathizers and opposition groups near appeals centers nationwide. GOV security forces raided dozens of opposition information centers in search of fraud alleged by Chavez supporters. The pro-Chavez campaign committee Comando Ayacucho accused the opposition of falsifying 10,000 identity cards in hundreds of centers across Venezuela, and called for an audit of all appeals registers (cuadernos). National Electoral Council (CNE) President Francisco Carrasquero expressed concern at the alleged electoral fraud and encouraged appeals workers to scrutinize identity cards. Former President Jimmy Carter, accompanied by OAS SYG Gaviria, told reporters that the reported irregularities were minor technicalities and should not delay official results. End Summary. -------------- Opposition Reaches Threshold -------------- ¶2. (C) Turnout was lower May 30 for the third and final day of signature appeals, with heavy rains in Caracas and in many states around Venezuela. Observers noted that participation had picked up in some states, but it did not reach first-day levels. Appeals centers operated normally, though observers noted that Plan Republica soldiers scrutinized closely persons trying to enter centers. With two hours remaining before closure, results from one source said the opposition had reached 2.52 million valid signatures, at least 80,000 signatures above the threshold needed to activate the recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez May 30. Projections suggest the opposition will exceed the threshold by 110,000 signatures. (Update: as of May 31, opposition was claiming it exceeded threshold by 130,000 signatures.) -------------- Violence, Threats Around Appeals Centers -------------- ¶3. (U) Press and observer reports noted the continued presence of Chavez supporters, and in many cases, opposition groups, around appeals centers. There were reports of harassment of participants by Chavez groups. Observers noted groups of Chavez supporters, some of them armed, arriving at sites in buses and government vehicles, where they would intimidate participants. Disputes often resulted in Plan Republica soldiers closing centers temporarily. -------------- Chavistas Allege Massive Fraud -------------- ¶4. (U) Members of the pro-Chavez campaign committee Comando Ayacucho alleged the opposition engaged in mass fraud, falsifying identity cards (cedulas). The Comando Ayacucho demanded that the National Electoral Council (CNE) audit every appeals register to ensure the fraudulent cedulas had not been used. GOV security forces raided dozens of the opposition's information centers throughout Venezuela, alleging they were factories for producing false cedulas. Comando Ayacucho members were present for several raids, showing the false cedulas allegedly recovered from the sites. Libertador Mayor Freddy Bernal claimed to have found a "national identity card cloning center," alleging the GOV had discovered at least 10,000 such cards. Political party offices, doubling as information centers, were also targets. DISIP agents at one site claimed they did not need a search warrant because they were in hot pursuit of gunmen who had fired on them. ¶5. (U) The Comando Ayacucho also claimed that more than 5,300 people who had passed away since signing in November 2003 had mysteriously appealed their signatures. Pro-Chavez Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy Willian Lara said the Comando Ayacucho would request the National Electoral Council (CNE) exclude these signatures automatically. In some centers the "deceased" persons appeared and defended their signatures, according to press and observer reports. The CD dismissed the fraud allegations as desperation by the GOV and demanded that the CNE not change the rules by auditing every register. -------------- Carter and Gaviria Visit Chavez, CNE -------------- ¶6. (U) Former President Jimmy Carter and OAS SYG Cesar Gaviria met separately with President Chavez on May 30. Chavez told reporters after the Carter meeting he would comply with any decision by the CNE. Carter and Gaviria met with the CNE board later in the day. Carter told the press that the process was being carried out in peace and calm. News reports of intimidation and violence, he said, were minor problems that did not disrupt the appeals process. Carter said the technicalities raised by the Comando Ayacucho should not delay the delivery of results. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The GOV was aware of the opposition's progress and tried to discourage turnout through harassment and, failing that, discrediting the results by alleging fraud. The opposition seems to be on track to have obtained a moderate cushion of signatures to activate the recall referendum. We are still several days away from the deadline for the CNE to announce the results (June 4). Both sides are celebrating triumph for now, but just as the government has been intimidating and harassing the opposition prior to this weekend, it will continue to do so, keeping tensions elevated in the coming days. SHAPIRO NNNN 2004CARACA01861 - CONFIDENTIAL