SIGNATURE TALKS ADVANCE AT CNE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001169 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2014 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: SIGNATURE TALKS ADVANCE AT CNE REF: A. CARACAS 1159 ¶B. CARACAS 1054 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge Rodriguez announced April 5 that talks between the opposition and the GOV are "well advanced" on an agreement over the appeals process for the signatures collected in support of a recall vote on President Hugo Chavez. Rodriguez said the CNE would consider, as a sign of good faith, delaying elections for governors and mayors to September 19, to permit a possible presidential referendum as early as August 8 (The date would conflict with the August 1 date envisioned for the regional elections). Opposition negotiators expressed their willingness to go to the appeals process if it is transparent and practical. The situation, however, is quite fluid. End Summary. -------------- -------------- CNE: Progress on Talks, Willing to Delay Regional Elections -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge Rodriguez announced on April 5 that talks between the opposition and the pro-GOV parties (the "Comando Ayacucho") are "well advanced" toward an agreement over the appeals process ("reparos") for the signatures collected to petition for a recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez. Rodriguez also said the CNE is considering postponing regional elections for governors and mayors to September 19 as "a sign of good faith" that the CNE is trying to address opposition concerns. Rodriguez admitted the original regional elections date of August 1 would complicate the logistics of a possible referendum, which Rodriguez suggested could be August 8. Rodriguez noted that the postponement still needs the approval of the CNE board (Note: Four of the five directors must agree on decisions affecting dates of elections.). Rodriguez said he hoped to conclude talks with both the opposition and the pro-GOV parties on April 5. -------------- The Opposition's Three Conditions -------------- ¶3. (C) Opposition representatives told to Polcouns April 2 that talks indeed are advancing. Opposition negotiator Enrique Naime said the number of signatures the CNE could consider valid would increase above 1.8 million, though Naime claimed the CNE was tinkering with the numbers on the municipal level to give the GOV the advantage. Naime said they had compared CNE data, and found that the number of invalid signatures had increased by more than 100 percent in states where Chavez enjoys greater sympathy. The opposition would thus face greater difficulty in revalidating signatures there. Ambassador confirmed progress on the talks with Carter Center representative Francisco Diez on April 4, who said the two sides were still see-sawing on final details of the appeals process. Press reports, though varied, say that the sticking points are closing certifications, tallying process, number of tables in each center, and the presence of witnesses and international observers. ¶4. (U) Opposition negotiators held a press conference on April 5 giving three conditions to going to the appeals process. First, the process must be transparent, with clear rules and auditable results. International observers should be able to take "quick counts" as well, opposition leaders said. Second, the process must be efficient, with an infrastructure sufficient to avoid bottlenecks. Results should be released daily. The opposition negotiators added that they had demanded that the referendum take place at the beginning of August, before the appeals process for the pro-GOV signature drive against National Assembly deputies. (Note: August 19 marks the beginning of the final two years of Chavez's term, after which a recalled Chavez would be replaced by the vice president instead via new elections.) -------------- Comando Ayacucho Opposes Delay -------------- ¶5. (U) Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy Willian Lara, speaking on behalf of the Comando Ayacucho, subsequently denounced Rodriguez's proposal to delay the regional elections. Lara said the CNE's decision to do so would unconstitutionally lengthen the terms of mayors and governors. Lara complained that the CNE was giving favorable treatment to the presidential referendum at the expense of the Comando Ayacucho's recall referendum against opposition deputies. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Rodriguez's announcement is part of the negotiating process and is therefore subject to revision. We take it as a sign that talks are progressing. As Venezuela is headed into a four-day weekend for Holy Week, time is running out to get agreement on the appeals process before then. The best case scenario of holding the presidential referendum by August 8, we note, still carries a risk of delays beyond August 19 -- and Chavez could find a way to make that happen. SHAPIRO NNNN 2004CARACA01169 - CONFIDENTIAL