THE OPPOSITION PRESENTS CANDIDATES FOR REGIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001083 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: THE OPPOSITION PRESENTS CANDIDATES FOR REGIONAL ELECTIONS REF: A. CARACAS 00949 ¶B. CARACAS 1054 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Opposition political parties have registered their candidates for the August 1 gubernatorial and mayoral elections (ref b) despite criticism from opposition NGOs that see the elections as a distraction from the recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez. Opposition parties largely portray their participation in the elections as a plebiscite against Chavez, asserting that defeat of the pro-Chavez candidate will be their priority. The opposition reached agreement on 10 of 23 gubernatorial candidates, and opposition representatives expect front-runners, behind which opposition forces will coalesce, will emerge in most races once the campaigns begin. A win for the opposition in these races would set the stage for the 2005 National Assembly elections, and, of course, for the 2006 presidential elections. For the opposition, the key questions are can they winnow out competing opposition candidates to truly contest Chavez's candidates, and will the CNE play fair. End Summary. -------------- Referendum As Campaign Issue -------------- ¶2. (C) The candidate registration process for the August 1 gubernatorial and mayoral elections strained opposition unity. NGOs within the Coordinadora Democratica (CD),most notably Gente de Petroleo, disagreed with the parties' decision to present candidates, according to CD representative Daniel Thiman. The NGOs argued that the elections would distract the opposition from the recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez. Parties countered that the opposition could not risk surrendering the field to Chavistas in state and local governments, which are valuable assets to any political or electoral activities. The parties registered their candidates despite serious reservations about the ability or good faith of the National Electoral Council (CNE) to administer the elections in light of the CNE's handling of the recall referendum. ¶3. (C) Accion Democratica political secretary Luis Emilio Rondon told poloff March 24 that opposition parties were given no choice by the GOV but to move forward on the regional elections. He said the opposition will continue to push for the referendum, noting that a recalled Chavez would damage the chances of pro-Chavez candidates. Thiman told poloff March 25 the opposition would ramp up its referendum efforts shortly, though he did not have details on how the opposition would do this. CD Spokesperson Pompeyo Marquez told reporters "the referendum is to revoke Chavez and the regional elections are to defeat Chavismo." -------------- All Politics Is Loyalty -------------- ¶4. (C) Rondon asserted that the deciding factor in the regional elections would not be good governance or competency, but rather by devotion or opposition to Chavez. If opposition groups are able to make the elections about Chavez's administration, Rondon reasoned, it could be a powerful plebiscite against his rule. He predicted the opposition could see a net gain in the number of governors and mayors. Pro-Chavez Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy Ibrain Velazquez agreed the GOV could lose the regional elections in light of growing opposition strength in the states. -------------- Electoral Darwinism -------------- ¶5. (C) Movement to Socialism (MAS) Secretary General Leopoldo Puchi told poloff March 26 the opposition had agreed on common candidates in ten states. Puchi said even in states where the CD had negotiated common candidates, additional candidates registered to run. Union President Francisco Arias, for example, registered for the governorship of Zulia state, where the opposition has backed sitting Governor Manuel Rosales. Surprisingly, Union's board of directors withheld support from their party president (and founder) in the name of unity. Gossip columns are replete with intimations that Arias is running at the behest of Chavez in order to divide the opposition vote. Thiman said the CD expects the competition between opposition candidates will be short-lived as the campaigns gear up. Venezuelan political culture does not favor underdogs, he said, and voters will rally behind the opposition front-runners against the pro-Chavez candidate. -------------- Key Races: Metropolitan Caracas A Must Win -------------- ¶6. (C) One of the most important races for the opposition is the metropolitan Caracas mayoralty, currently held by former Chavez ally Alfredo Pena. Rondon noted the importance of winning the Metropolitan Mayoralty as it controls the Metropolitan Police and grants permits for opposition marches. Pena has the CD's support for a second term, though AD's Claudio Fermin is also running. With the MVR candidate, National Assembly Deputy Juan Barreto, reportedly polling 30 percent (he says 43 percent),having two opposition candidates weakens the opposition's chances. ¶7. (C) Rondon calculated that a victory for the opposition would be measured in a net gain of governorships. He highlighted Miranda State, where Governor Enrique Mendoza will face former Minister of Infrastructure Diosdado Cabello (who stepped down March 23 to run for office as dictated by election laws). Carabobo is also key, where Henrique Salas Feo is taking on former National Guard Gen. Luis Felipe Acosta Carles. Rondon was pessimistic over the opposition's chances in Aragua state east of Caracas, where moderate Chavista Didalco Bolivar enjoys substantial popularity. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The opposition political parties are behaving like political parties in their enthusiasm over the regional elections. For them, the referendum and the regional elections are not mutually exclusive goals. In fact, the referendum -- or lack of one -- will be a prime issue. The major concern, of course, is whether the CNE, that for the opposition has shown it cannot be trusted, will be able to conduct a free and fair contest. SHAPIRO NNNN 2004CARACA01083 - CONFIDENTIAL