MANIPUR: INDIAN ARMY PRESSURE NEAR BURMA BORDER

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000449 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR SA/INS, EAP/IMBS AND INR NEW DELHI FOR POL AND DAO E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL MOPS PINS PGOV BM IN GOI SUBJECT: MANIPUR: INDIAN ARMY PRESSURE NEAR BURMA BORDER REF: A) CALCUTTA 0337, B) CALCUTTA 0294, C) CALCUTTA 0135 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) On October 26, the Indian Army launched a counter-insurgency exercise in the Chandel and Churachandpur districts of Manipur, a Northeast Indian state bordering Burma. Remaining initially tightlipped, an Army spokesman finally announced on November 6 that more than 100 rebel bases had been attacked and that the Army had re-established control over Sajik Tampak, where about 2,000 rebels had been camping. The Manipuri separatist insurgent camps bordering Burma belong primarily to the United National Liberation Front (UNLF),the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the Peoples' Revolutionary Army of Kangleipak (PREPAK). On the Burmese side of the border, these and other Northeast Indian insurgent outfits are believed to have bases. Press reports suggest that Burmese troops are maintaining a heightened state of vigilance on their side of the boundary, to check militants from entering the country. ¶2. (SBU) A leader of the Manipur Congress, the ruling party in Imphal, Manipur's capital, told post that the Army operation aims at "cleansing" the border area by driving away or detaining militants, while keeping casualties to a minimum. Officials estimate about a couple of dozen militants killed, although some contacts said the tally may be even less. On November 9, the UNLF issued a statement dismissing Army claims as propaganda. The outfit said that insurgents had successfully fought off attempts by the military to infiltrate their bases. The UNLF also claims to have inflicted heavy casualties on security forces in Churachandpur on November 13, killing 12 Army personnel. In turn, the Army has denied this. ¶3. (SBU) On November 20, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is scheduled to visit Manipur, a state torn by insurgency and popular resentment against the GOI. Singh's program includes formally vacating the historic Kangla Fort in Imphal, occupied since 1949 by the Assam Rifles forces, and handing it over to the state government. The occupation of the fort has been a source of much popular anguish, and Singh's move is intended to engender goodwill. (Septel will report in greater detail on the ongoing internal problems in Manipur.) ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: Although highly detailed information is difficult to come by, so far the Army exercise appears low-grade despite the "propaganda war" by both the security forces and the militants. Army personnel first moved into the forested, mountainous Sajik Tampak area as long ago as April, on the eve of Parliamentary elections (Reftels). Significantly, the launch of the current operation coincided with Burmese General Than Shwe's October 25-29 India visit. The exercise also precedes PM Singh's scheduled tour, as well as the Indo-ASEAN car rally -- to be inaugurated on November 22 -- with as many as 60 teams competing on a route that starts in Guwahati, Assam, exits India through Manipur's border checkpoint at Moreh, and continues through Southeast Asia to the finish line in Singapore. The GOI is hoping this rally will showcase a significant new trade route into the northeast, and they recognize that any security incidents could be a severe setback to these ambitions. END COMMENT. SIBLEY