UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 005366

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/PPD AND EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KPAO XE USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EUROBAROMETER: PERCEPTIONS OF U.S. WORSENING



1. SUMMARY: The latest Eurobarometer poll will gladden
hearts in Brussels: a growing majority in Europe has a
positive attitude about the EU and its institutions. Still,
weak support in the UK especially will give Eurocrats pause
as Europe enters a year of referenda on the new Constitution.
The poll also indicates a continuation of the worrying
trends revealed earlier in the fall by German Marshall Fund
polling: fifty-eight percent of respondents said the U.S.
plays a negative role in promoting world peace. END SUMMARY.

METHODOLOGY AND CONTEXT
=======================


2. The European Commission,s twice-yearly Eurobarometer
poll was conducted in October and November 2004, through
roughly 1000 face-to-face interviews in each Member State.
The poll also solicited opinions in the four candidate
countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey) and
Northern Cyprus. In the period since last spring's poll,
there has been an unusual level of political change in the
European Union: the addition of ten countries to the EU, a
new Commission and Parliamentary elections, and the adoption
of a draft constitutional treaty.

MORE POSITIVE ABOUT EU PARTICIPATION
====================================


3. In general, Europeans appear to feel more positive about
their general well-being and their participation in the
European Union.

-- Fifty-six percent of respondents are pleased that their
country is part of the EU, the highest percentage since 1995,
and up 8% since six months ago. However, this view is more
commonly held among the &old8 Member States, while citizens
of the new Member States seemed to feel it was too early to
tell, with numbers of neutral answers being particularly
high. Residents of the United Kingdom were least pleased to
be part of the European Union, with only 38% thinking the
UK,s EU membership is a good thing.

-- The number of people who believe their country has
benefited from belonging to the EU is also higher than at any
time in the last ten years ) at 53%. This change seems to
be due primarily to previously undecided people firming up
their opinions, rather than those with a negative view
changing their minds. The most positive views on the

benefits of EU membership were held in Ireland, Lithuania,
Greece, Belgium and Luxembourg; the United Kingdom and Sweden
are least positive about the benefits of EU membership.

-- Fifty percent of those surveyed have a very positive or
fairly positive image of the EU (a slight increase). It
appears familiarity might breed contempt: The country with
the highest perception of the EU is not even a member yet;
seventy-six percent of Romanians have a positive image of the
EU. Turkish citizens also had a positive perception of the
EU (63%).

-- Perceptions of European institutions were also up
slightly. Fifty-two percent of respondents said they trust
the European Commission; fifty-seven percent trust the
European Parliament.

-- More than two-thirds of respondents (68%) support the
concept of a European Constitution (up from 63% six months
ago). This is a response to a very general question, however
(&Are you for or against a constitution for the European
Union8), and should not necessarily be seen as support the
for the current draft constitutional treaty.

ENLARGEMENT
===========


4. More than half of the people interviewed in the EU 25 are
in favor of further expansion in the coming years. This is
an increase of 16 points since the beginning of 2004, and
includes a significant percentage of respondents who have
changed their views from &against8 to &for.8 Indirectly,
this may be a sign that respondents so far perceive the
recent enlargement as a success. There are a few interesting
exceptions to the general rule: sixty-two percent of the
citizens of Austria, which borders four new member states,
are against further expansion. Populations in Germany (57%),
Luxembourg (54%), Finland (52%) and France (51%) are also
against further expansion.


5. The Eurobarometer poll does not ask specific questions
about Turkey. However, debate over Turkey,s accession was
particularly intense around the time the poll was conducted,
and it is possible that the anti-expansion views of Germany,
France and Austria may not be simply a vote against any
further expansion, but may have something to do with possible
Turkish accession in particular.

COMMON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
==================================


6. More Europeans are in favor of both a common
defense/security policy and a common foreign policy, the poll
found (respondents are questioned on the two policies
separately). Surprisingly, Europeans are more favorably
disposed to the nascent defense cooperation among EU members
than to the more firmly established foreign policy
cooperation. Seventy-eight percent said they are for a
&common defense and security policy among EU member
states,8 an increase of 5 points since the last poll six
months ago, and the highest level of support seen in ten
years. Most of the increase in favorable responses came from
undecided respondents who changed their opinions to favorable
ones. Also a surprise, support for a EU common defense and
security policy is especially strong among countries that
recently joined NATO (Poland and the Czech Republic, at 85%
and 84% respectively).


7. There is also increased support for a common foreign
policy, but to a lesser extent; sixty-nine percent of
Europeans support this concept. The United Kingdom was the
only country to record a level of support below 50%.

US ROLE IN WORLD: NOT HELPING
=============================


8. The latest poll demonstrates that European perception of
the United States continues to be increasingly negative. The
poll measured European opinion on U.S. and European roles in
fostering world peace and combating terrorism. Asked if the
U.S. tends to play &a positive role or a negative role . . .
regarding promoting peace in the world,8 fifty-eight percent
of respondents said the U.S. played a negative role, with
only 22% saying the U.S. plays a positive role. Only
thirty-nine percent of respondents felt the U.S. had played a
positive role regarding &the fight against terrorism;8
forty-two percent believed the U.S. had played a negative
role.


9. Only three countries interviewed had a majority positive
opinion on the role played by the U.S. to promote world
peace: the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Romania. Opinions
on the fight against terrorism are more divided, with a rift
appearing between &old8 EU countries, which tend to have a
more negative view, and the new member states, which are
generally more positive.


10. European responses to these very focused questions are
particularly worrisome in light of another recent poll
conducted by AP-Ipsos. The poll asked whether respondents
had a favorable or unfavorable view of Americans. In France
and Germany, just over half of those surveyed said they had
an unfavorable opinion; in Spain, just under half had an
unfavorable view. The AP-Ipsos results suggest that
disapproval of specific American policies may now be spilling
over into negative views of average Americans.

MCKINLEY