EU COMMITTED TO SENDING A POSITIVE MESSAGE TO KIEV

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 005302

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV UP RS PL EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU COMMITTED TO SENDING A POSITIVE MESSAGE TO KIEV

REF: A. BRUSSELS 5258


B. WARSAW 5290

C. KIEV 4927

D. MOSCOW 15312

Classified By: USEU POLOFF EMAZUR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The December 13 GAERC endorsed a European Neighborhood
Policy "Action Plan" (AP) for EU-Ukraine cooperation, billing
it as part of an effort to send a positive signal to Kiev.
In fact, the AP's provisions remain unchanged from the draft
which existed prior to the recent events, and offer little to
Ukraine, especially on the big question of possible EU
accession. Member States, we are told, remain split along
geographic lines regarding Ukrainian membership. Those who
support the idea are moving slowly to get opponents
&accustomed to the thought8 of Ukraine in Europe. The EU
is pleased its recent efforts demonstrated EU willingness to
act, even in the face of Russian opposition. End Summary.

Going the extra mile for Ukraine?
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2. (C) The December 13 General Affairs and External Relations
Council (GAERC) session endorsed the EU's Action Plan (AP)
for Ukraine (along with several others) under the European
Neighborhood Policy (ENP). Council official Carl Hartzell
told us that the GAERC understood the importance of sending a
positive signal to Ukraine to reinforce the country,s
democratic changes. Hartzell said the GAERC also tasked the
High Representative Javier Solana and External Relations
Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner with preparing a proposal
that would commit the EU to be more &forthcoming in setting
an ambitious agenda.8 According to Hartzell, Solana and
Ferrero-Waldner will probably present their ideas as soon as
the next GAERC on January 31, 2005. He suggested the
February GAERC may decide on its adoption. Hartzell noted
that the EU,s &philosophy8 toward Ukraine remains
unchanged: Ukraine must deliver on common values, such as
commitment to democracy, human rights, and media freedom.
What is different, he said, was that with a new Ukrainian
president in office, the EU would be willing to set the AP
provisions in motion. Heads of State and Government at the
European Council meeting on December 16-17 will issue brief
Conclusions on Ukraine reflecting the GAERC discussions.

No support for membership, for now
--------------


3. (C) The EU,s attitude regarding Ukraine,s EU accession
likewise remains unmoved. The Commission's Head of Unit for
Political Affairs for Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus
Hilde Hardeman (protect) shared with us that on December 8
the Permanent Representatives Committee (COREPER) President
assessed Ukraine,s EU accession chances as having &no
shadow of support.8 Hardeman and Hartzell separately
dismissed Ferrero-Waldner,s statement that the EU is ¬
closing any doors8 as the RELEX Commissioner's personal
opinion -- one that would not affect the EU,s final
decision. Hartzell added he would be "extremely surprised8
if the European Council raised the issue in the next few
months. Similarly, Polish First Secretary Cezary Bardzinski
(protect) told us it would &take a miracle8 for the EU to
offer Ukraine membership even in a long-term perspective. At
most, he said, in 2006 the EU might revise the Partnership
and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) to include a &vague vision
of potential membership.8


4. (C) Explaining the EU stance, Hartzell argued that free
and fair elections were an insufficient criterion for EU
membership, pointing to Moldova,s free and fair elections
that failed to qualify the country as a candidate. Hartzell,
however, acknowledged that free and fair elections in Ukraine
would constitute a new circumstance that would require the EU
to respond with a positive signal, which he was certain would
be limited to a more generous assistance package.

The EU satisfied with its approach
--------------


5. (C) The EU appears pleased with its recent efforts on
behalf of Ukraine, such as the adoption of the Action Plan
and Solana,s mediation. Council Secretariat,s Carl
Hallergard told us that the timing of the AP's endorsement
was chosen to send a decisive signal of the EU,s support for
the democratic process in Ukraine. The endorsement
demonstrated the EU,s willingness to push despite Russia,s
refusal to engage on the EU neighborhood policy. Hartzell
acknowledged that the Council was satisfied with Solana,s
role in &setting the rules of the game8 and &felt much
better8 after the Rada approved what the EU viewed as the
crucial issues -- the electoral law reform and the dismissal
of the Central Electoral Commission (note: the Rada also
passed constitutional amendments).

6. (C) Nevertheless, EU officials and diplomats agree that
the ball is in Ukraine,s court, which must demonstrate its
long-term commitment to democracy and human rights. For its
part, the EU is now focused on providing approximately 3
million euros funding and observers for the December 26 third
election round. There is political will to have as many
observers as possible, according to Hallergard. At the same
time, Hartzell and Council Secretariat,s Annika Weidemann
shared with us that the OSCE officials had told them that
they might be unable to handle more than 1,000 observers for
logistical reasons.

Getting to a yes: a long-term perspective
--------------


7. (C) The EU,s approach toward Ukraine will remain
&neither yes nor no8 regarding the country,s candidacy,
according to Bardzinski, partly because Member States are
almost equally split along geographic lines in their attitude
toward potential Ukrainian accession. Bardzinski said
Poland's views face &significant resistance8 from Germany,
France, the Benelux, and the countries of the Mediterranean.
He said that Poland would work on changing the opponents,
current &allergic reaction8 to Ukrainian EU membership by
getting them &accustomed to the thought8 that Ukraine
belongs in Europe over the next several years. Bardzinski
told us that opponents feared Russia's reaction, and also
worried about language creep in which a reference to
potential long-term Ukrainian accession evolves into a
surprise membership offer. Nevertheless, Member States such
as the Nordics, the Baltic states, and the Visegrad four
insist the EU must act immediately to intensify cooperation
with Ukraine beyond the Action Plan and refocus the EU's
attention more eastward than it has done thus far.


8. (C) European Commission,s Russia Desk Officer Michael
Miller (protect) told us that Russian aggressive Cold War
rhetoric on Ukraine would be difficult for Russia to reverse.
He noted that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
was &extremely emotional and irrational8 about US
assistance to Georgia, and linked the democratic developments
in Tbilisi to the events in Ukraine as both US-funded and
US-instigated. Miller shared with us that the Russian MFA
warned the EU that a potential split in Ukraine would be the
West,s fault. Miller noted that the Ukrainian election
provided an opportunity for the US and the EU to work
together on the shared goal of promoting democracy and human
rights.

COMMENT
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9. (C) Recent events in Ukraine have not altered the current
EU policy toward Ukraine in any fundamental way. The EU has
offered to include the country in its &ring of friends8 --
and no more. Mention of a distant accession appears to
prompt an allergic reaction in some major Member States.
They insist on keeping Ukraine in the ENP category --
effectively excluding it from eventual membership -- despite
the push by some veteran and new members to move beyond the
ENP,s Action Plan. The possible election of opposition
candidate Victor Yushchenko may force the EU to redefine its
relationship and could increase pressure on the EU to
consider the possibility of eventual EU membership. EU
advocates of Ukrainian accession have little leverage over
the opponents, who already consider the EU overwhelmed by the
last round of EU enlargement, and are struggling with their
crucial decision on Turkey.

MCKINLEY