EU DEBATE ON TURKEY: SIMMERING BUT INCHOATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004816

SIPDIS

LONDON PLEASE PASS MARCIEL AND KENNEDY; EUR/SEE FOR
SILLIMAN; EUR/ERA FOR VOLKER AND BONO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2014
TAGS: PREL TU EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU DEBATE ON TURKEY: SIMMERING BUT INCHOATE

REF: A. BRUSSELS 4009


B. BRUSSELS 4299

C. THE HAGUE 2789

D. THE HAGUE 2836

Classified By: USEU/POL: Harry O'Hara, reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: The EU's decision on Turkey is now out of the
hands of Commission officials, but contacts there continue to
plan for accession talks with Turkey. Still, they also
express some uncertainty over how the Dutch will get a
positive outcome at the December 17 European Council. EUR
Deputy Assistant Secretary Kennedy's November 10 visit
provides a chance to further explore how the Commission and
the Dutch Presidency will proceed over the next five and a
half weeks. End Summary.


2. (C) Debate within the EU over how to handle a date for
accession talks with Turkey at the December 17 European
Council has continued to simmer since the October 6
Commission announcement on Turkey (refs a/b),but the tough
decisions are now in the hands of EU heads of government,
under the leadership of the Dutch Presidency. Commission
officials note that the Dutch Presidency's major concrete
action to date was to use their agenda-setting Presidency
role at last week's European Council to limit member-state
discussion of Turkey to an update on Turkey's application for
membership. Our understanding is that the Turkey matter was
considered "not ready" for high-level discussion, and the
Dutch sought to avoid what otherwise could have been an
unconstructive or unduly negative debate over Turkey.

Commission moves ahead... sort of
--------------


3. (C) Commission officials working on Turkey are laying the
groundwork so that the accession talks can begin whenever the
Council gives them a political green-light. A key Commission
official, who has traveled to Turkey numerous times in the
last few weeks, told us that his goal is to be ready for a
date in 2005. He had no further specificity, other than to
say he personally views it impossible before April.

The Challenge for the Dutch Presidency
--------------


4. (C) Based on the very difficult debate in the Commission
in early October, where a number of Commissioners reflected
national and political party views, Commission official
expect debates to be neither smooth nor easy. Privately,
they tell us that the Turkish decision to embrace the
positive thrust of the recommendation, rather than dwell too
much on the details -- some of which are compromises and
concessions to particular member state concerns -- has been
helpful. Nonetheless, the Commission faces a dilemma. One
contact said that the Commission finds it "inconceivable"
that Turkey would get spurned in December: the consequences
would disastrous for the EU. But they also worry about how
all 25 member-states can get to a yes. They view this
decision as likely to be the defining moment for the Dutch
Presidency.

US role? Commission reaction
--------------


5. (C) When asked about a US role in helping Turkey,
Commission officials invariably state that our current
low-profile is the right tack. Commission contacts tell us
that extensive US lobbying for Turkey during the Danish
Presidency actually hurt Turkey.

Council Secretariat Quiet
--------------


6. (C) So what's going on inside the Council? Very little
here in Brussels, as far as we can tell. Council Secretariat
officials active on enlargement issues tell us that Council
apparatus by and large is in a watching mode. We were told
that the main dynamics were between the Commission and the
Dutch Presidency, and mainly within the Council between the
heads of state and the Dutch Presidency (refs c/d).

Comment
--------------


7. (C) From our optic, the situation is very fluid. How the
EU handles the end game on Turkey is in the hands of the
Dutch Presidency. There are many trial balloons being
floated over starting dates (2005/2006) or conditions (labor
movement restrictions, Cyprus recognition, etc.),but nothing
has been decided. If past experience from the 2002 Danish
Presidency is any guide, all these issues will be intensely
debated and discussed at the last minute, with the final
decisions made by prime ministers and presidents. Our
Brussels contacts believe European political leaders from
countries where the majority of the population is skeptical
about Turkish EU membership will need some sort of
face-saving compromise measures to bring them to say yes. The
options we hear being discussed -- a beginning date slightly
later than the norm, automatic braking mechanisms, or human
rights or labor caveats -- will have to be weighed against
the primary goal: a positive decision with a date on December

17.

McKinley