EU DEBATE ON TURKEY: SIMMERING BUT INCHOATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004816 SIPDIS LONDON PLEASE PASS MARCIEL AND KENNEDY; EUR/SEE FOR SILLIMAN; EUR/ERA FOR VOLKER AND BONO E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2014 TAGS: PREL TU EUN USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: EU DEBATE ON TURKEY: SIMMERING BUT INCHOATE REF: A. BRUSSELS 4009 ¶B. BRUSSELS 4299 ¶C. THE HAGUE 2789 ¶D. THE HAGUE 2836 Classified By: USEU/POL: Harry O'Hara, reasons 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: The EU's decision on Turkey is now out of the hands of Commission officials, but contacts there continue to plan for accession talks with Turkey. Still, they also express some uncertainty over how the Dutch will get a positive outcome at the December 17 European Council. EUR Deputy Assistant Secretary Kennedy's November 10 visit provides a chance to further explore how the Commission and the Dutch Presidency will proceed over the next five and a half weeks. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Debate within the EU over how to handle a date for accession talks with Turkey at the December 17 European Council has continued to simmer since the October 6 Commission announcement on Turkey (refs a/b),but the tough decisions are now in the hands of EU heads of government, under the leadership of the Dutch Presidency. Commission officials note that the Dutch Presidency's major concrete action to date was to use their agenda-setting Presidency role at last week's European Council to limit member-state discussion of Turkey to an update on Turkey's application for membership. Our understanding is that the Turkey matter was considered "not ready" for high-level discussion, and the Dutch sought to avoid what otherwise could have been an unconstructive or unduly negative debate over Turkey. Commission moves ahead... sort of -------------- ¶3. (C) Commission officials working on Turkey are laying the groundwork so that the accession talks can begin whenever the Council gives them a political green-light. A key Commission official, who has traveled to Turkey numerous times in the last few weeks, told us that his goal is to be ready for a date in 2005. He had no further specificity, other than to say he personally views it impossible before April. The Challenge for the Dutch Presidency -------------- ¶4. (C) Based on the very difficult debate in the Commission in early October, where a number of Commissioners reflected national and political party views, Commission official expect debates to be neither smooth nor easy. Privately, they tell us that the Turkish decision to embrace the positive thrust of the recommendation, rather than dwell too much on the details -- some of which are compromises and concessions to particular member state concerns -- has been helpful. Nonetheless, the Commission faces a dilemma. One contact said that the Commission finds it "inconceivable" that Turkey would get spurned in December: the consequences would disastrous for the EU. But they also worry about how all 25 member-states can get to a yes. They view this decision as likely to be the defining moment for the Dutch Presidency. US role? Commission reaction -------------- ¶5. (C) When asked about a US role in helping Turkey, Commission officials invariably state that our current low-profile is the right tack. Commission contacts tell us that extensive US lobbying for Turkey during the Danish Presidency actually hurt Turkey. Council Secretariat Quiet -------------- ¶6. (C) So what's going on inside the Council? Very little here in Brussels, as far as we can tell. Council Secretariat officials active on enlargement issues tell us that Council apparatus by and large is in a watching mode. We were told that the main dynamics were between the Commission and the Dutch Presidency, and mainly within the Council between the heads of state and the Dutch Presidency (refs c/d). Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) From our optic, the situation is very fluid. How the EU handles the end game on Turkey is in the hands of the Dutch Presidency. There are many trial balloons being floated over starting dates (2005/2006) or conditions (labor movement restrictions, Cyprus recognition, etc.),but nothing has been decided. If past experience from the 2002 Danish Presidency is any guide, all these issues will be intensely debated and discussed at the last minute, with the final decisions made by prime ministers and presidents. Our Brussels contacts believe European political leaders from countries where the majority of the population is skeptical about Turkish EU membership will need some sort of face-saving compromise measures to bring them to say yes. The options we hear being discussed -- a beginning date slightly later than the norm, automatic braking mechanisms, or human rights or labor caveats -- will have to be weighed against the primary goal: a positive decision with a date on December ¶17. McKinley