EU: BARROSO WITHDRAWS COMMISSION JUST BEFORE VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004639

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IT EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU: BARROSO WITHDRAWS COMMISSION JUST BEFORE VOTE

REF: A. A) USEU TODAY 10/20/04

B. B) USEU TODAY 10/15/04

C. C) USEU TODAY 10/14/04

D. D) BRUSSELS 4578

E. E) USEU TODAY 10/26/04

Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Realizing after last-minute consultations
that he would not obtain European Parliament (EP) approval,
European Commission President-designate Jose Manuel Barroso
on October 27 withdrew his Commission one hour before the
scheduled vote. He said he would present a new list of
Commissioners-designate "soon." Until then, the current
Commission, headed by President Romano Prodi, will stay on.
While Barroso has lost some prestige and his Commission will
get a late start, we do not believe that these events will
provoke an institutional crisis in the EU. END SUMMARY.

BACKGROUND: BUTTIGLIONE'S CONSERVATIVE VIEWS
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2. (U) The main obstacle to the Barroso Commission's approval
was MEPs' disapproval of Commissioner-designate for Justice,
Freedom and Security Rocco Buttiglione's outspoken positions
on homosexuality and the family, including his view that
homosexuality is a &sin.8 The EP Civil Liberties and
Justice and Home Affairs Committee rejected Buttiglione's
nomination because of fears that Buttiglione would not uphold
the principle of non-discrimination toward gays and women.
Although various groups in parliament complained of other
nominations, Buttiglione's nomination became the causus belli
that eventually rallied a majority against the Barroso
Commission.

BARROSO SEES WRITING ON WALL
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3. (C) After Barroso's proposed compromise on October 21 --
which would have dispersed responsibility for
non-discrimination among a team of Commissioners -- failed to
convince center and left-wing EP leaders (ref D),further
consultations brought no significant movement. The centrist
liberal faction remained the key swing voting bloc. An EP
source told us that, at an October 26 meeting between Barroso
and Liberal-Democrat (ALDE) EP Deputies (MEPs),50 said they
would vote against his Commission, 23 said they would vote in
favor, and 5 said they would abstain. The results of that
meeting tipped the scales against Barroso.

BARROSO'S SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL
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4. (U) On October 27, one hour before the vote set for 12:00
noon, Barroso announced to a surprised EP in plenary session
that he would withdraw his designated Commission. Saying a
vote would not be good for "the European project," Barroso
said he would work to come up with a new team within a few
weeks. After adjourning temporarily for internal party
consultations, the EP reassembled in plenary and accepted
Barroso's decision. Both EP President Josep Borrell and the
Dutch EU Presidency representative, European Affairs Minister
Atzo Nicolai, said the current Prodi Commission would have to
stay in office beyond the planned November 1 end of its term
until a new Commission had been approved. (Prodi had agreed
in the run-up to this vote to continue in office beyond
November 1 if necessary.)

What Next?
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5. (C) Barroso must now consult closely with member states,
and will either re-shuffle portfolios among existing
candidates, or ask some or all member states to nominate
different commissioners. He will almost certainly try to
persuade the Italian government to nominate someone other
than Buttiglione. Barroso did not establish any deadline for
presenting new proposals, noting only that he would do so "in
the next few weeks." The next plenary of Parliament is
currently scheduled for November 15-18, but if he proposes
new portfolios or presents a new slate of commissioners, it
is difficult to imagine the new team would complete the
committee hearings process by that time. The next
regularly-scheduled plenary is not until December 13-16,
although the Parliament could also be called into special
session if needed.

Comment
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6. (C) Withdrawing the Commission may have averted a clear
defeat in the vote, and several Parliamentary leaders tried
to help Barroso save face by suggesting he would emerge
strengthened, not weakened, from this event. The clear
loser, however, was the Parliament's largest party grouping,
the EPP, which attempted a power play and was outmaneuvered
when all other groups rallied against them. A second
parliament loser, ironically, could be the liberal democrats,
who tipped the balance against this slate. It is difficult
to imagine the next team Barroso presents will be as liberal
in orientation as the Commission that was just defeated. It
is possible back-room discussions at the Rome EU Summit on
October 29 could very quickly yield the outlines of a new
Commission, but much will depend on PM Berlusconi's
willingness to sacrifice Buttiglione. While a big bump in
the road for Barroso, we do not believe that these events
will provoke an institutional crisis in the EU.

SCHNABEL