NEA A/S BURNS' CONSULTATIONS WITH EU ON IRAQ,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 004625

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/IPA, NEA/NGA, NEA/IR, NEA/PI, EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2009
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD KNNP IZ IR IS EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: NEA A/S BURNS' CONSULTATIONS WITH EU ON IRAQ,
IRAN, FFTF AND MEPP


Classified By: USEU POL MINCOUNS KYLE SCOTT; REASONS 1.4 (B,D)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) A/S Burns met October 22 with senior EU officials on
the way back from his most recent trip to the region. Topics
discused were Iraq, Iran, Forum for the Future (FFtF)
preparations, and the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP). The
EU outlined its plans to support elections in Iraq, and also
discussions underway on a possible EU presence in Iraq.
EU-Iranian discussions the previous day in Vienna were
characterized as good, but will require several additional
meetings before the November IAEA Board of Governors meeting
to see if the Iranians will yield. A/S Burns updated the
Commission on Moroccan plans for the FFtF meeting, and
reviewed unresolved issues of participation and how to deal
with education questions. Javier Solana expressed
frustration with the Israeli approach to the MEPP, but
underscored his determination to ensure that EU member states
remained committed to the Quartet process rather than
pursuing independent initiatives. It was suggested the Sharm
el Sheikh meeting could become an important venue for
discussing approaches to many of these issues. EU Special
Representative for the Middle East Peace Process Marc Otte
took advantage of Burns' visit to hold an informal meeting of
Quartet envoys, where the group discussed plans for the AHLC,
now scheduled for December 8 in Oslo. End Summary.

Iraq - Elections Are Key
--------------


2. (C) A/S Burns briefed EU officials on the current
situation in Iraq. Key US goals are supporting PM Allawi's
efforts at rebuilding the security apparatus, advancing
political reconciliation (especially with disaffected
Sunnis),and allowing economic reconstruction to proceed.
The success of the UN's efforts to organize elections in
January will prove a key milestone. Christian Leffler,
Middle East Director for the Commission, agreed that the
elections were critical, and outlined EC efforts to support
the UN. The Commission has decided to increase its
contributions to this effort by an additional 30 million
euros. He had just received approval to send reinforcements
to Baghdad to support the UN team. The Commission hopes they
will operate under Carlos Valenzuela's umbrella, but noted
they will remain separate so as not to exceed the ceiling for
UN personnel. That said, Leffler noted that the Commission
hopes their officials can make use of security provided the
UN team, so as to reduce costs for the Commission.


3. (C) Leffler said the Commission has concluded that the
conditions in Iraq are simply not right for meaningful
international observation of the elections. Instead, the EC
intends to concentrate on training trainers/observers to
allow Iraqis to better organize the observation effort. In
parallel, the EU intends to organize "process observation."
These process monitors will be based in both Baghdad and
Amman, and will look at the organization of the overall
process, in order to be able to pronounce on its fairness and
organization after election day. A/S Burns urged close
coordination with the UN.

EU "Rule of Law Mission" Inside Iraq?
--------------


4. (C) Peter Feith, Council Deputy Director General for
Security and Defense Policy, briefed A/S Burns on his recent
visit to Baghdad and Council proposals to establish a "rule
of law mission" in Iraq to support training senior police,
judges, prosecutors, and perhaps also prison officials. His
office has presented options to the member states on how to
carry out this mission, ranging from a full-fledged training
effort in both Baghdad and Basra, to a small advisory
presence in Iraq with training conducted outside the country.
The member states had reviewed these proposals for the first
time October 22, and would return to them again October 26.
DG Robert Cooper suggested the French would likely oppose an
EU mission inside Iraq. Feith agreed, but said he hoped the
member states would eventually decide on an option which
would include some sort of EU presence inside Iraq. Feith
hopes the member states will reach agreement in the coming
days, so that this proposal can be combined with the
Commission's proposals, and presented to PM Allawi when he
travels to Brussels for the November 5 Council session. He
hopes to send a planning team to Baghdad soon thereafter,
with the goal of launching the mission soon after the January
elections.


5. (C) Cooper asked about a long-term US military presence in
Iraq, suggesting that a sensible policy would be "organize
elections, train the Iraqi army, and get out." He emphasized
that it was important for the EU that Iraq end well, and
underscored that this would also help transatlantic relations
"get past the bad blood of the past." In all these issues,
Cooper emphasized that "it would help if there were some sort
of Franco-American reconciliation." Solana also cautioned
that PM Allawi's public criticism of France made reaching
agreement within the EU more difficult.

Iran: Good Start, More Meetings To Come
--------------


6. (C) Secretary General Javier Solana and Cooper both
described the October 21 meeting in Vienna with the Iranians
as a "good start." According to Cooper, the Iranians
accepted the EU-3 paper without reactions, other than to note
that it was imbalanced because it contained requests for
concrete action by Iran in exchange for promises from the EU.
Still, Cooper considered it encouraging that the Iranians
suggested the process of consultations on the package needed
to go faster than planned, and suggested several more
meetings to discuss the package prior to the IAEA BOG.
Cooper admitted that "noises from Tehran are not
encouraging," but felt reassured that in Vienna the Iranians
at least appeared ready to talk. According to Cooper, the
Iranians indicated that they had thought through further
steps already, have studied the composition of the BOG and
the UNSC, and asked how the West expected to deliver on its
"threats."


7. (C) Cooper regretted that the next IAEA BOG meeting came
so soon, suggesting all parties may need more time. The EU-3
(plus Cooper) will meet again with the Iranians the week of
October 25 to continue discussions on the EU's package, and a
third round of talks are likely the second week in November.
Solana also echoed Cooper's hint of weak EU resolve, saying
"New York is still an open question." He also urged the US
to find some way to talk directly to the Iranians, suggesting
that the margins of the Sharm el Sheikh meeting might prove
useful in that regard. A/S Burns emphasized that we still
considered referral to the Security Council the best step,
and noted that our skepticism about Iranian intentions
remains deep.

MEPP: Keeping Everyone on the Ranch
--------------


8. (C) Solana concentrated his meeting with A/S Burns on the
MEPP. He was agitated, and openly frustrated, especially
with the Israelis and Weissglas' statement in particular.
The only appropriate response, Solana suggested, is to begin
to define final status issues. He complained that senior
American officials are not aware enough of the unnecessary
suffering and brutality the Israelis are inflicting on the
Palestinian population.


9. (C) Solana emphasized that the EU fully recognized the
weaknesses in Palestinian leadership as well. (Solana met
with Nabil Sha'ath immediately before his meeting with A/S
Burns. Otte said the basic message to Sha'ath had been "if
you want the EU to help you, you must act responsibly.") A/S
Burns underscored to Solana that independent European
initiatives, such as those being hinted at by the Spanish and
French FM's, were unhelpful, and would be exploited by the
Palestinians to avoid taking responsible actions on their
own. Solana agreed, and reassured Burns that he will keep his
members committed to the Roadmap as the only way forward.
Burns emphasized that support for Gaza withdrawal was part of
a larger picture that includes the entire Roadmap, and could
also have an impact on events elsewhere in the Middle East.

Preparing for the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC)
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Leffler stressed the need for careful preparation for
the AHLC, now scheduled for December 8 in Oslo. Otte
suggested it might be useful if major donors coordinated in
advance of the session. Leffler emphasized the need to keep
this group limited. He suggested only the US, EU, World
Bank, and UNRWA be included (as well as the Norwegian hosts).
Leffler also expressed frustration with the World Bank's
reluctance to share the results of its study with major
donors, saying the need to give their results to the US and
EU at least in the near future. In the informal lunch that
Otte arranged for Quartet envoys, preparation for the AHLC
was a primary topic for discussion.
Forum For the Future
--------------

11. (C) A/S Burns briefed on his meetings in Morocco on FFtF
planning. The ministerial is now set for December 11, using
the New York format. Morocco wants broad participation, and
intends to invite also Libya and Syria. Leffler noted that
Iran was not being invited, and he and Cooper both opined
that this was for the best. Leffler said the Commission was
"not enthusiastic" about a possible invitation to Sudan. A/S
Burns briefed on current thinking in Rabat about how best to
approach the sensitive issue of education, and Leffler
expressed sympathy with the Moroccan position. He suggested
that inviting an NGO regional authority to introduce the
topic of education --perhaps making a pitch directly to
finance ministers at this point -- might prove more useful
than high-level participation by ministers of education.
This could then set the stage for a meeting by ministers of
education in 2005.


12. (U) NEA A/S Burns cleared this message.

Schnabel