THE BARROSO COMMISSION: MORE OLD FACES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 003126

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: THE BARROSO COMMISSION: MORE OLD FACES
THAN NEW ONES


SUMMARY
--------------


1. The next EU Commission to take office on
November 1, 2004, will have 25 members, including
its President. A majority of them are already in
place: they are from the ten new Member States,
having joined on May 1 and looking for a full five-
year mandate, or from the former EU-15 and also
expecting to be re-nominated by their governments.
Now that the European Parliament (EP) has confirmed
him as Commission President-elect, Jose Manuel
Barroso will start working on the make-up of his
team and the sensitive allocation of portfolios
among Commission members. END SUMMARY.

ALL THE PRESIDENT'S MEN AND WOMEN
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2. The mandate of EU Commission President Prodi
and his colleagues in the college of Commissioners
will expire at the end of October. With the
European Parliament's July 22 confirmation of Jose
Manuel Barroso of Portugal as President-elect,
Barroso must now formally begin consultations with
EU governments to draw up the list of the other (24)
members of his Commission (one per member State).


3. Far more complicated than compiling the list of
24 fellow Commissioners will be divvying up the
substantive portfolios of Commission work among
them. In the first instance, he needs to figure out
how to create five more jobs with high enough
profiles to satisfy his colleagues, when even among
the current 20 Commissioners a few have seemed to
lack for enough to do. In comments to the press, he
has expressed doubts about the wisdom of one
proposal to create more slots - Commission VP
positions without direct line responsibility who
would instead coordinate "teams" of other
Commissioners for broad policy areas such as
external affairs, economic policy, or justice and
home affairs.


4. Even more politically sensitive will be deciding
who gets which portfolio. Barroso's challenge will
be to protect his prerogatives and resist pressure
from governments for their nationals to receive
specific portfolios. France, Germany and the UK
have already publicly voiced their desires for key
economic portfolios. In his June 30 appearance
before the EU press corps and during hearings at the
EP, Barroso invoked Treaty rules to make it clear
that he alone will be in charge of the allocation of
portfolios among the future Commissioners. Barroso
was "prepared to listen" if they could help him to
assess the skills of potential nominees, but France
and Germany were only making "suggestions," he said.
Barroso has also stressed an interest in an
increased proportion of women on the new Commission
(up from 8 of the current 30).


5. Following is our assessment of likely nominees
for the Barroso Commission:

JUST ARRIVED IN BRUSSELS
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6. A safe bet is that most, if not necessarily all,
Commissioners who joined the Prodi team from the ten
new Member States on May 1, 2004 will be re-
nominated for a full five-year term. Some
uncertainties persist in respect of the Czech
republic (following the change at the top of the
government) and Hungary (where FM Kovacs may seek
the job for himself). These ten Commissioners
already have full voting rights in the Prodi
Commission but have no portfolio of their own,
instead "twinning" with current Commissioners.
Though Barroso may in some cases be prepared to play
for continuity and give them full responsibility for
the area they are covering only in part now, he will
be free to reshuffle portfolios completely. These
Commissioners are:

--Czech Republic: Pavel Telicka ("twinned" at Health
and Consumer Protection);

--Cyprus: Marcos Kyprianou (Budget);

--Estonia: Siim Kallas (Economy and Finance);

--Hungary: Peter Balasz (Regional Policy);

--Latvia: Sandra Kalniete (Agriculture and
Fisheries, but with little chance to stay there);

--Lithuania: Dalia Grybauskaite (unhappily "twinned"
at Education and Culture; interested in an
economic portfolio);

--Malta: Joe Borg (Development Cooperation and
Humanitarian Assistance, a portfolio that is
likely to be split);

--Poland: Danuta Huebner (Trade; said to be
interested in an econ portfolio);
--Slovenia: Janez Potocnik (Enlargement and New
Neighborhood Policy, and rumored to be very
interested in staying there, where he would be
responsible, inter alia, for accession
negotiations with neighboring Croatia);

--Slovakia: Jan Figel (Enterprise Policy and the
Information Society).

ALREADY ON BOARD AS WELL
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7. Also likely to be reappointed are the four
members who joined the Prodi Commission this year in
replacement of early departures:

--Greece: Stavros Dimas, now in charge of
Employment and Social Affairs, would like to
relinquish his portfolio, perhaps for Fisheries
(assuming this is separated from Agriculture);

--Spain: Joaquin Almunia, now holding the Economic
and Monetary Affairs portfolio, expects to be
reappointed but would be forced to leave Brussels
when/if the Constitutional Treaty enters into
force (perhaps at the beginning of 2007) and High
Rep Solana officially becomes EU Foreign Minister,
thus landing in the Commission as a Vice-
President;

--France: Jacques Barrot, who handles EU Regional
policy, will seek an economic portfolio. Paris is
eager to see him in control of Competition policy
to prevent further Commission blockades of French
state subsidies and mergers involving its major
companies. However, Barrot's knowledge of EU
technicalities and his linguistic talents may not
meet the requirements of the job. He may have to
settle for another slot (perhaps Single Market,
Employment/Social Affairs, or JHA);

--Finland: Olli Rehn, just chosen to succeed
departing Enterprise and Information Society
Commissioner Erkki Liikanen, will most likely seek
an economic portfolio.


8. Other Member States will/may re-nominate the
current holder of their Commission slot:

--Germany: Chancellor Schroeder has already
announced (without prior consultation with the
President-designate) that the mandate of
Commissioner Guenther Verheugen would be renewed.
Schroeder made it clear he would like to see
Verheugen become a "super-Commissioner" in charge
of economic matters. Though widely credited for
his management of the complex enlargement
portfolio, Verheugen arguably has no specific
expertise in the economic area;

--Italy: Mario Monti, currently in charge of EU
Competition policy, is willing to stay and appears
to have convinced PM Berlusconi to keep him in
Brussels, possibly with an eye on the coveted
Economic and Monetary Affairs portfolio. A
possible replacement is Rocco Buttiglione, Italian
Minister for Community policies;

--Sweden: Margot Wallstroem (now holding the
Environment portfolio) told the press in Brussels
on July 7 that she would probably stay in the
Commission for another term;

--Luxembourg: Viviane Reding (Education and
Culture) can also hope for reappointment,
following her party's strong showing in the June
national and EP elections.

SOME NEW FACES AT LEAST
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9. As for the other Member States, the situation
appears to be as follows:

--Austria: Franz Fischler (holder of the Agriculture
and Fisheries portfolio) is expected to leave
Brussels. FM Ferrero-Waldner is a potential
candidate, but the list of would-be Commissioners
also includes Interior Minister Strasser, Health
Minister Maria Rauch-Kallat, the head of Austria's
Economic Chamber Christoph Leitl, as well as
Balkans Stability Pact Coordinator Erhard Busek;

--Belgium: Commissioner Philippe Busquin (Research)
will be replaced by former FM Louis Michel, who
has already expressed a keen interest in the
Development portfolio;

--Denmark: the Liberal-led government will not
confirm Poul Nielson (Development and Humanitarian
Assistance). Former FM and Liberal party front-
runner Ellemann-Jensen has declined the job.
Coalition-member Conservative Party may put
forward Hans Skov Christensen, Director of the
Confederation of Danish Industries. Another
possible candidate is Integration Minister
(Liberal) Bertel Haarder, but PM Rasmussen may not
want to do without him on the domestic front;

--Ireland: the former Presidency is said to be in
competition with the current (Dutch) one for the
Agriculture portfolio. Agriculture Minister Joe
Walsh and Finance Minister McCreevy (who denied
any interest) have been mentioned as potential
candidates but the game seems to remain open;

--The Netherlands: The Dutch are looking for the
Agriculture/Fisheries portfolio, for which they
would push the candidacy of their current Ag
Minister Cees Veerman (CDA),who already won
public backing from French president Chirac.
Other options would be former Minister Neelie
Kroes (VVD),who could have an eye on the
Transport portfolio, and former Finance Minister
Onno Ruding (CDA).

--UK: The front-runner for the job of Britain's
Commissioner would be PM Blair-confidant and
former new Labor Minister Peter Mandelson, who
would aim for an influential reform-oriented
portfolio, such as the Internal Market one.
Another option would be a female member of the
Blair cabinet such as Secretary for Industry and
Trade Patricia Hewitt, likely to be a contender
for the Single Market or Trade portfolio;

COMMENT
--------------


10. Barroso will preside over a Commission that may
actually include less than a third of newcomers.
This should ease the transition somewhat, although
many, if not most, in the old guard will only have
been here for a few months. Having relinquished the
right to nominate a second Commissioner, the large
Member States will put tremendous pressure on the
President-designate to give their nominee a powerful
portfolio. The allocation of responsibilities has
never been an easy task, but Barroso may find it
even harder than his predecessors. The make-up of
an enlarged Commission where everybody feels at ease
with a decent, substantial portfolio will not only
be the first test of his talents as a manager and
captain of the Commission ship but will also
determine the quality of his relations with his
former PM colleagues for many years to come.

MCKINLEY