MANY EU SUMMIT FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002593 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2014 TAGS: PREL MARR EAID XA XF TU HR RO BG EUN USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: MANY EU SUMMIT FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY DECISIONS PRECOOKED REF: A. USEU BRUSSELS 2368 ¶B. USEU BRUSSELS 2369 ¶C. USEU BRUSSELS 2502 Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During the EU Summit June 17-18 in Brussels, EU sources tell us EU leaders will approve a range of pre-cooked decisions on a broad range of foreign policy topics so that they can focus on Constitutional Treaty negotiations and top-level appointments (septel). EU leaders are expected to endorse recent proposals from High Rep Solana and Commissioner Patten on EU engagement in Iraq, and instruct foreign ministers to agree on a package of "appropriate first steps." The EU will also issue fairly anodyne language on Iran. On the MEPP, EU leaders are to "reaffirm the readiness of the EU to work with the US and other partners in cooperating with the countries concerned." Leaders will agree to start drafting the Accession Treaty for Romania and Bulgaria in July 2004, open accession negotiations with Croatia "early in 2005", and "welcome significant progress" made by Turkey toward qualifying for the start of accession negotiations. Leaders will also issue a decision outlining procedures for an ESDP Operations Center. Our initial read of this ESDP document is that it preserves UK redlines (more septel). One topic that may see new language is Afghanistan, depending on the discussion at the Foreign Ministers' June 17 dinner. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The Irish Presidency has released (on www.eu2004.ie) the Draft Conclusions for this week's EU Summit. Council sources say this draft can effectively be viewed as the final Conclusions, since Heads will not have any serious discussion of most of the topics. At most two hours on Friday morning are set aside to review the text, and in those two hours the focus is supposed to be on the Justice and Home Affairs section. EU FMs, at dinner on Thursday will discuss MEPP, Iran (on both of which Conclusions are already set) and Afghanistan (the one topic that might still be added to these draft Conclusions). IRAQ: EU TO DECIDE "FIRST STEPS" IN JULY -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Summit Conclusions welcome UNSCR 1546 and the Commission Communication "The EU and Iraq - A Framework for Engagement" as well as the accompanying letter from High Rep Solana and External Relations Commissioner Patten (REFS B and C). The Summit will instruct the July 12-13 GAERC to "agree appropriate first steps to be taken" that could include: technical, economic and reconstruction assistance; close engagement with UN teams, including on elections; enhancing EU representation in Iraq, as (security) conditions permit; beginning political dialogue; and urging neighbors to be constructive. EU leaders also propose an EU-Iraq Troika (presumably at FM-level) with the "new Iraqi government as soon as possible" and an invitation to the Iraqi PM to address the EU's General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC). Conclusions also "welcome the possibility of an international meeting to support the Iraqi political transition and Iraqi recovery." The Summit Conclusions do not repeat June 14 GAERC's mention of the prisoner abuse issue. BMENA: "READINESS TO WORK WITH U.S." -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The summit will endorse the "Strategic Partnership with the Mediterranean and the Middle East" highlighting familiar themes. In the section directly relevant to the Broader Middle East and North Africa initiative, EU "reaffirms the readiness of the EU to work with the U.S. and other partners in cooperating with the countries concerned. It looks forward to reviewing the MEPP and exploring the possibilities for coordinating our respective efforts to assist the reform process at the coming EU-US Summit on 26 June 2004." The Summit will also issue a page and a half of Conclusions specifically on the Middle East Peace Process, but these include nothing of substance that the EU has not already said several times before, including reaffirmation of the centrality of the road map. IRAN: WAITING FOR THE IAEA -------------- ¶5. (C) In a single paragraph on Iran, the EU "stresses the Union's desire to move towards a closer relationship with Iran, on the basis of action by Iran to address the EU's concerns" on the nuclear program, terrorism, human rights and Iran's approach to the MEPP. The Conclusions note that "the EU will continue discussion in light of IAEA DG El-Baradei's report and the outcome of the IAEA Board of Governors meeting currently taking place in Vienna." (COMMENT: These brief Conclusions reflect the Irish Presidency's desire (REF A) to avoid serious discussion of the Iran issue among leaders at this juncture. END COMMENT.) ESDP Planning Cell: Careful Instructions on Next Steps -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) The Conclusions include a remarkably detailed one-page section on "NATO/EU Consultation, Planning and Operations." The EU leaders ask High Rep Solana to work toward establishing SHAPE and NATO liaison arrangements by end 2004. Heads also will agree to "work on establishing an operations centre" by 1 January 2006 at the latest. In fairly restrictive terms, the text states "this will not be a standing HQ" and that national HQs remain the "main option" for "autonomous military operations." The "objective" should be for an operations center able to plan and conduct operations "on the scale of operation Artemis" (NOTE: Artemis was the ESDP operation in Ituri, Congo, which was planned by French national HQ and involved about 1500, predominantly French, troops. END NOTE). The Summit will also "welcome the understanding that the civ/mil cell and facilities for an operations centre should be located in the same building as the main structures of the EUMS, as well as, to the maximum extent possible, with the pol-mil structures of DGE." This language represents an explicit effort by several member states, led by the UK, to limit the size of the operations center (details septel). Enlargement: Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Turkey -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Responding to a successful lobbying effort by the Romanians, the EU will not (at least at this point) "decouple" Bulgaria and Romania in their path to the EU; both are still described as singing a single Accession Treaty "as early as possible in 2005" with the aim of joining the EU in January 2007. In a legally meaningless, but politically significant, gesture, the Summit will decide that drafting of the Accession Treaty for both countries will begin in July 2004 (even if the terms for Romania aren't fully set yet). The Summit will also announce that Croatia will begin accession negotiations "early in 2005", and the Commission will be asked to "prepare a pre-accession strategy" including details of how and when Croatia could get access to the much larger pots of assistance money available in those budget lines. The Conclusions do include a useful reference that "emphasizes that Croatia needs to maintain full cooperation with ICTY and take all necessary steps to ensure that the remaining indictee is located and transferred to The Hague" as well as mention of minority rights, refugee returns, judicial reform, regional cooperation and anti-corruption. The Conclusions make no decisions about Turkey, but reaffirmed that a decision on whether to open negotiations with Turkey will be made in December. At this stage, the EU "welcomes the significant progress made to date by Turkey in the reform process" and "the positive contribution of the Turkish Government" on Cyprus. The Conclusions do include a mention of the need to adapt Turkey's Customs Union, (a document known as "the Ankara Agreement"),to an EU of 25. (NOTE: This is an issue we are told arose anew in the past couple of weeks when Ankara said it would extend the Agreement to all of the new Member States, other than the Republic of Cyprus.) Other External Relation Topics, Including US-EU Summit -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) The Conclusions also cover a real laundry list of foreign policy topics, with passing references to HIV/AIDS, Millennium Development Goals, ESDP in Bosnia, WMD strategy, human rights, and conflict prevention. In a list of references to various EU-third country Summits, the EU "expresses its confidence that the strength, depth and significance of the EU-US relationship will be demonstrated in a successful EU-US Summit on 26 June; the relationship is also being reinforced through enhanced economic partnership and intensified business dialogue." The EU also confirms its new European Neighborhood Policy will include Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Justice and Home Affairs -------------- ¶9. (U) The Conclusions on these topics are largely an inventory of achievements to date and a repetition of previously set deadlines. They confirm that High Rep Solana is asked to create an intelligence capacity on terrorist threats in the Council Secretariat as soon as possible. Building on suggestions in the March 25 EU Summit Declaration, the Conclusions task the Council with drafting, by December 2004, a "coherent overall approach" to strengthening EU efforts to combat terrorist financing. They also task the Council and Commission with developing by the end of 2004 an overall strategy on the protection of critical infrastructure, and with evaluating the capabilities of Member States in preventing and responding to a terrorist attack. SCHNABEL