EU PUZZLED BY MOLDOVA'S STABILITY PACT INITIATIVE; MOSCOW RESPONSE IS KEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 002541 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/ERA AND EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2009 TAGS: PARM PBTS PREL OSCEL EUN MDD USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: EU PUZZLED BY MOLDOVA'S STABILITY PACT INITIATIVE; MOSCOW RESPONSE IS KEY REF: A. A. STATE 1292081. ¶B. B. DUBLIN 983 ¶C. C. CHISENAU 637 ¶D. D. MOSCOW 8164 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: USEU POLOFF LEE LITZENBERGER; REASONS 1.5 (B,D) (C) On June 14, Poloff presented ref (A) demarche to Kees Van Rij and Carl Hartzell of the EU Council's Policy Planning Staff. They appreciated the information, and agreed that the proposed Stability Pact could have value if -- in modified form -- it leads to further Russian engagement. Thus, Russia's response to the demarche would be critical, they said. Van Rij will informally sound the Russians out later this week, he said. If the notion has traction in Moscow, the EU would support further discussion, he said, but otherwise was skeptical of the proposal's usefulness. ¶2. (C) Van Rij confirmed Dublin's readout (ref B) that EU Foreign Ministers meeting June 14-15 in Brussels would not reference the Stability Pact proposal directly in their public conclusions. Ministers planned to issue conclusions on Moldova, but these are meant to complement an earlier private letter from Irish PM Ahern to Russian President Putin urging Russia to agree to pentagonal talks as proposed by the U.S. The EU conclusions would include language stressing the importance of Moldova's "territorial integrity," but the EU needs more time to consider the proposal before issuing a public statement on it. Hartzell noted that the proposal is viewed by opposition leaders in Moldova as "cheap electioneering" by Voronin, and the EU does not want to get enmeshed in election politics. Van Rij said he would query Moldovan leaders the initiative later in the week, when they come to Brussels to wrap up discussions on a joint "Action Plan" under the EU's new European Neighborhood Partnership initiative. ¶3. (C) Van Rij said he was puzzled by the Moldovan text, which struck him as very "19th century" and anachronistic. It appeared to be directed at Russia and Romania, in an effort to elicit their endorsement of Moldova's borders. He and Hartzell questioned how -- and whether -- the proposal was linked to the ongoing OSCE 5-sided initiative to resolve the Transnistrian conflict. Van Rij said the Moldovan Ambassador in Brussels was "utterly uninformed" about the initiative, further raising questions about its origins and purpose. Van Rij noted that the inclusion of Romania was "complicated." It could complicate further Romania's bid to join the EU in that it raises the issue of the un-signed Romanian-Moldovan border agreement. The EU's understanding is that Romania's response to the Stability Pact has been "cautious but interested." On the one hand, Bucharest was encouraged that it was included but, on the other hand, it doesn't want to "internationalize" the status of the border agreement, which it views as a purely bilateral issue. SCHNABEL