EU ON LATEST IRAQ DEVELOPMENTS: WHAT TO EXPECT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002369

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2014
TAGS: PREL EAID IZ UNSC EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU ON LATEST IRAQ DEVELOPMENTS: WHAT TO EXPECT IN
JUNE

REF: A. STATE 121748


B. STATE 121718

C. DUBLIN 840

Classified By: USEU Poloff Van Reidhead for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: The EU intends to release a medium term
strategy on Iraq at its June 17-18 Summit. The strategy will
govern political and economic relations with sovereign Iraq
through the 2004-05 electoral period. Specific proposals
include support for the electoral process, human rights,
democratic institutions and civil society, as well as
regional reintegration and significant microeconomic
assistance. Pleased with a new government in Iraq and
hopeful about a passage of UNSC resolution on Iraq, formal
EU-Iraq relations will likely begin with a high level troika
visit this summer; one of our interlocutors described as an
EU commitment to "progressively engage in Iraq." On June 2,
Deputy Secretary Armitage raised many ref A-B points in his
discussion on Iraq with EU Council Hi-Rep Javier Solana
(septel). Solana is both publicly and privately supportive of
the new government and wants the UNSC resolution on Iraq to
go ahead. End Summary.

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EU Intends "Progressive Engagement" With Sovereign Iraq
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2. (C) We called on the Council Secretariat Iraq Desk to
discuss the draft UNSCR on Iraq and the Brahimi-al Allawi
announcement naming an Iraqi Interim Government (IIG)
(reftels). Principal Administrator Lena Hove (protect)
affirmed EU support for a return to sovereignty on June 30
and said that "everybody is quite happy with Brahimi" and his
efforts as UN Special Advisor. She added that the EU has
"lots of hope and expectation for what the UN can do in
Iraq," and is looking for ways to engage and assist the IIG
in the run up to elections.


3. (C) Hove reports that EU leaders hope to adopt a strategy
at their June 17-18 Summit for engaging with Iraq throughout
the interim period. An Irish contact confirms the intent for
leaders to "welcome, review and possibly endorse" the
strategy, which both Hove and our Irish contact describe as a
"medium term" effort intended to cover the period from July 1
through the 2004-05 electoral period. The draft strategy (or
"Communication" in Eurojargon) is scheduled for release by
the Commission on June 9. Member States will have from then
until the June 14 GAERC to review and revise the document.
FMs could either endorse it on June 14 or mandate further
revision prior to the June 17-18 EU Summit. Hove said that
in either case, the EU was determined to have a strategy in
place by the June 30 transfer of sovereignty. Asked if
passage of the draft UNSCR was viewed as a prerequisite for
adopting an EU strategy for enhanced engagement, Hove said
no; Member States hoped that the resolution would be passed
in time to inform the EU strategy but that that was not a
condition. Somewhere along the way, HiRep Solana and
Commissioner Patten will issue a joint letter detailing a
shared vision of the EU's political and security relationship
with sovereign Iraq (Hove did not think the drafting was yet
underway). The letter will be addressed to FMs and Heads of
State/Government for consideration alongside the Commission
document.


4. (C) Hove said the emerging strategy would contain an EU
commitment to "progressively engage in Iraq." It will
contain "concrete proposals" for supporting the electoral
process, creating democratic institutions, developing civil
society, promoting human rights standards, and promoting
regional reintegration. It will also describe outlines for
the eventual negotiation of an EU-Iraq trade agreement (in
the form of a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement),and
will propose "significant" near- and mid-term microeconomic
assistance. The Commission will also propose opening a
delegation in Baghdad and will work with Member States to
develop a formal political dialogue with Iraq. Hove said
they expected the process to start over the summer with a
high level Troika visit to Baghdad.

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Recent Public Statements by HiRep Solana and FM Cowen
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5. (U) HiRep Solana and Irish FM Cowen (speaking for the EU
Presidency) commented on Iraq in separate statements to the
press June 1 and 2. Speaking in The Hague June 1, Solana
said, "I hope very very much that the (UNSCR) will be
approved, if possible unanimously, so that the government
will have the legitimacy needed to move the country forward
to stability." On June 2, following a meeting with Deputy
Secretary Armitage (septel),Solana praised Brahimi's "good

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job" and said that the EU "was pleased to see that a
government has been established." Solana also expressed hope
that the UNSC would come out with a resolution on Iraq. The
Irish EU Presidency also released a short statement June 1
welcoming the formation of the IIG and conveying FM Cowen's
wishes for "every success" as the IIG steers the country
toward free and fair elections (ref c).


6. (U) CPA Baghdad minimize considered.

Schnabel