EU ON LATEST IRAQ DEVELOPMENTS: WHAT TO EXPECT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002369 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2014 TAGS: PREL EAID IZ UNSC EUN USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: EU ON LATEST IRAQ DEVELOPMENTS: WHAT TO EXPECT IN JUNE REF: A. STATE 121748 ¶B. STATE 121718 ¶C. DUBLIN 840 Classified By: USEU Poloff Van Reidhead for reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The EU intends to release a medium term strategy on Iraq at its June 17-18 Summit. The strategy will govern political and economic relations with sovereign Iraq through the 2004-05 electoral period. Specific proposals include support for the electoral process, human rights, democratic institutions and civil society, as well as regional reintegration and significant microeconomic assistance. Pleased with a new government in Iraq and hopeful about a passage of UNSC resolution on Iraq, formal EU-Iraq relations will likely begin with a high level troika visit this summer; one of our interlocutors described as an EU commitment to "progressively engage in Iraq." On June 2, Deputy Secretary Armitage raised many ref A-B points in his discussion on Iraq with EU Council Hi-Rep Javier Solana (septel). Solana is both publicly and privately supportive of the new government and wants the UNSC resolution on Iraq to go ahead. End Summary. -------------- -------------- EU Intends "Progressive Engagement" With Sovereign Iraq -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) We called on the Council Secretariat Iraq Desk to discuss the draft UNSCR on Iraq and the Brahimi-al Allawi announcement naming an Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) (reftels). Principal Administrator Lena Hove (protect) affirmed EU support for a return to sovereignty on June 30 and said that "everybody is quite happy with Brahimi" and his efforts as UN Special Advisor. She added that the EU has "lots of hope and expectation for what the UN can do in Iraq," and is looking for ways to engage and assist the IIG in the run up to elections. ¶3. (C) Hove reports that EU leaders hope to adopt a strategy at their June 17-18 Summit for engaging with Iraq throughout the interim period. An Irish contact confirms the intent for leaders to "welcome, review and possibly endorse" the strategy, which both Hove and our Irish contact describe as a "medium term" effort intended to cover the period from July 1 through the 2004-05 electoral period. The draft strategy (or "Communication" in Eurojargon) is scheduled for release by the Commission on June 9. Member States will have from then until the June 14 GAERC to review and revise the document. FMs could either endorse it on June 14 or mandate further revision prior to the June 17-18 EU Summit. Hove said that in either case, the EU was determined to have a strategy in place by the June 30 transfer of sovereignty. Asked if passage of the draft UNSCR was viewed as a prerequisite for adopting an EU strategy for enhanced engagement, Hove said no; Member States hoped that the resolution would be passed in time to inform the EU strategy but that that was not a condition. Somewhere along the way, HiRep Solana and Commissioner Patten will issue a joint letter detailing a shared vision of the EU's political and security relationship with sovereign Iraq (Hove did not think the drafting was yet underway). The letter will be addressed to FMs and Heads of State/Government for consideration alongside the Commission document. ¶4. (C) Hove said the emerging strategy would contain an EU commitment to "progressively engage in Iraq." It will contain "concrete proposals" for supporting the electoral process, creating democratic institutions, developing civil society, promoting human rights standards, and promoting regional reintegration. It will also describe outlines for the eventual negotiation of an EU-Iraq trade agreement (in the form of a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement),and will propose "significant" near- and mid-term microeconomic assistance. The Commission will also propose opening a delegation in Baghdad and will work with Member States to develop a formal political dialogue with Iraq. Hove said they expected the process to start over the summer with a high level Troika visit to Baghdad. -------------- -------------- Recent Public Statements by HiRep Solana and FM Cowen -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) HiRep Solana and Irish FM Cowen (speaking for the EU Presidency) commented on Iraq in separate statements to the press June 1 and 2. Speaking in The Hague June 1, Solana said, "I hope very very much that the (UNSCR) will be approved, if possible unanimously, so that the government will have the legitimacy needed to move the country forward to stability." On June 2, following a meeting with Deputy Secretary Armitage (septel),Solana praised Brahimi's "good SIPDIS job" and said that the EU "was pleased to see that a government has been established." Solana also expressed hope that the UNSC would come out with a resolution on Iraq. The Irish EU Presidency also released a short statement June 1 welcoming the formation of the IIG and conveying FM Cowen's wishes for "every success" as the IIG steers the country toward free and fair elections (ref c). ¶6. (U) CPA Baghdad minimize considered. Schnabel