COMMISSION'S POSITIVE "AVIS" ON CROATIA'S EU

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001783 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID NL KAWC HR ICTY EUN USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: COMMISSION'S POSITIVE "AVIS" ON CROATIA'S EU MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION REF: A. STATE 84033 ¶B. USEU TODAY 4/20/2004 ¶C. THE HAGUE 975 Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 B/D SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In issuing its positive recommendation April 20 for opening of accession negotiations with Croatia, the Commission has tried to stress that Croatian cooperation with ICTY "must continue" and the Croatia must "take all necessary steps to ensure the remaining indictee is located and transferred to ICTY." EU officials also note that further progress reports from ICTY on Croatia will be due in May and June. The Irish Presidency has told fellow member states it does not plan to put the issue on a GAERC agenda until June 14. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On April 20, the European Commission issued a positive opinion ("Avis") on Croatia's application to begin membership negotiations with the EU, recommending to the Council that "negotiations for accession to the EU should be opened with Croatia." The avis does not comment on when such negotiations could or should begin. As forecast in REF B, one key conclusion of the Commission's "avis" was to note that "in April 2004, the ICTY Prosecutor stated that Croatia is now cooperating fully with ICTY. Croatia needs to maintain full cooperation and take all necessary steps to ensure that the remaining indictee (Ante Gotovina) is located and transferred to ICTY." ¶3. (C) The EU's Western Balkans Working Group (COWEB) on April 22 was given a brief presentation from the Commission on its avis. There was no debate in COWEB on the avis. The Irish Presidency chair simply noted it would not prejudge the eventual decision by the Council on the Commission's recommendation. Commissioner Patten will likely present the avis to EU FMs at their April 26 meeting (GAERC) in Luxembourg, but the Irish did not intend to have any discussion of the issue at either the April or May GAERCs. Croatia would be on the agenda only of the June 14 GAERC. (NOTE: Discussion of the issue at lower levels, beginning with COWEB, would have to begin some weeks before that. End Note.) Expectations are that the June 17-18 European Council will take a decision on whether to begin Croatia's negotiation, but the Irish are not absolutely committed to that calendar. ¶4. (S) We have spoken with COWEB representatives and Commissioner Patten's staff about the avis. They have all noted the EU shares our surprise (REF A) at the report from ICTY Prosecutor Del Ponte that Croatia was "now fully cooperating." Both the Dutch COWEB rep (protect) and Patten advisor Patrick Rock were keen to stress that the EU believes "Croatia is not off the hook yet." EU pressure had helped produce the improved Croatian cooperation with ICTY cited in Del Ponte's letter, but the EU has stressed Croatia "must continue its cooperation." The EU will pay close attention to further reports from ICTY that will include coverage of Croatia's behavior. (According to Rock these include a May 7 report by the ICTY President -- not Del Ponte -- to the Council of Europe, a May 31 written report from Del Ponte to the UNSC, and a June 15 -- immediately preceding the EU's decision -- oral report by Del Ponte to the UNSC.) Our Dutch contact noted that EU monitoring of Croatian cooperation with ICTY would still continue even after negotiations might begin, with a negative report at any time potentially derailing Croatia's progress. ¶5. (S) In response to REF A points arguing Del Ponte's assessment was insufficient, Rock said that all the Commission knew about Del Ponte's justifications for her view was what she put in her letter. He suggested the USG push Del Ponte harder to "spell out in terms" the basis for her change of position and lay out any evidence we might have indicating the Croatians are providing less than full cooperation. "But that is the kind of conversation the Commission can't have with her," Rock added, since the Commission does not have access to any intelligence on the issue. Our Dutch contact (protect) said that in his conversation with ICTY Special political Advisor Ruch, he had been given much the same report on ICTY-GoC interaction as reported REF C, with the additional note that the Office of the Prosecutor was now pushing the GoC on implementation of an "action plan" that has a "timeline of 2 to 3 months." Our contact observed that timeline would appear to extend beyond the EU's own decision-making calendar. He noted that the Dutch "would love to believe Del Ponte has assurances of results" in the coming weeks, but are not at all confident that is the case. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The key now will be to leverage the Commission's positive avis as best we can with Croatia. Our sense is that the EU is primed to respond if Del Ponte should reverse or revise her assessment of Croatian cooperation over the course of the next two months. While the Commission avis notes that "additional efforts" will be needed by Croatia in a variety of policy areas (notably minority rights, refugee returns and judicial reform),the key message to the GoC needs to be that the path is clear to opening EU membership negotiations: the only thing that could trip them up between now and June would be if they fail to "take all necessary steps to ensure the remaining indictee is located and transferred to ICTY." End Comment. SCHNABEL