FICO PREPARED FOR CRITICISM DURING WASHINGTON VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000490 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR-CONLEY NSC FOR FRIED E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LO SUBJECT: FICO PREPARED FOR CRITICISM DURING WASHINGTON VISIT Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Weiser for reason 1.4(b). ¶1. (C) Summary. Robert Fico, the most popular politicaian in Slovakia, will visit Washington May 17-19. Fico has a major influence on public opinion and has told the Ambassador on several occasions that he wants good relations with the U.S., but his public statements are often unhelpful. Fico hopes his visit to Washington will help policy makers get to know "Slovakia's future Prime Minister." He should hear a tough message about how the U.S. views the limits of discourse between friends and allies. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Robert Fico's Smer ("Direction") party consistently leads popularity polls with 27-30 percent voter support. Leading Smer members include businessmen and professionals, but the party's main support is found among young voters and less-educated voters. Fico is in a permanent campaign as leader of the main opposition party to discredit the Dzurinda government by criticizing foreign policy and domestic reforms. One Smer MP told us that his party was happy with many of the current government's economic reforms. He said the situation Smer will inherit after 2006 elections will have greatly benefited from all the tough measures. Then he smiled and added, "But now we're an opposition party so, of course, we oppose everything." Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that the "populist" line Fico uses in public often differs greatly from what Smer MP's and Fico himself tell us in private. Foreign Policy -------------- ¶3. (C) Because Fico's public statements are not always reflective of what he says privately, and because as an opposition leader he needs certain political space to maneuver, we don't take everything he says at face value, or as indicative of the policy he might adopt if he becomes prime minister. That said, sometimes he goes too far. For example, on private TV JOJ on May 8, 2004 Fico said that &the attack on Iraq was about natural resources and that was the main reason why force was used in Iraq.8 He also claimed that PM Dzurinda was lying about Iraq having barrels full of weapons of mass destruction and links with terrorism. The Ambassador spoke to him on these remarks, noting that even in opposition there was a line between what is acceptable criticism and what is simply spreading lies. The Ambassador warned Fico that his visit to Washington would not be a mere exchange of pleasantries, but that he should be prepared for some constructive criticism about how "friends of the U.S." behave. Fico has called for a parliamentary debate on examining the performance of Slovak troops in Iraq and discussing the possibility of their withdrawal absent a UN mandate. This debate was originally scheduled for May 12, but President of Parliament Hrusovsky postponed the discussion until June. ¶4. (U) On April 10, when parliament debated the ratification of NATO accession treaty, Fico stated: 8I do not perceive any kind of festive atmosphere. There are many reasons for that. NATO as an organization preferred to adhere to international law, instead of sanctioning unilateral military action against Iraq by the United States. In spite of that, the citizens of Slovakia tend to connect NATO primarily with that great superpower and with its style of asserting its own national interests...In our opinion, the assault on Iraq is a gross violation of international law, which was also espoused by the Government of Slovakia. The background of the assault needs to be seen as being motivated by narrow economic interests. I wish to express my regrets that the GOS did not even find the courage, although the war in Iraq provided many opportunities for that, to sharply condemn the killing of civilians, mostly women and children, as a result of allied attacks.8 ¶5. (SBU) Fico is generally favorable to America and wants good relations with the United States, but he does not always have pro-U.S. instincts. He also gives heavy consideration to Russian economic opportunities. Fico started studying English five years ago; before that his only foreign language was Russian. He knows English is the language of Slovakia's future, but he also values strong ties to Russia and other former USSR states. ¶6. (C) An example was his controversial June 2003 trip to Belarus. Belarusian state television used the visit for propaganda, claiming that the country is not isolated. Fico neither met opposition representatives nor discussed human rights issues. He later defended the visit by explaining that he concluded interesting business contracts during his trip. Fico learned a lesson from the criticism, and vetted his upcoming trip to Libya with the U.S. before firming plans. He wants to resume traditional business ties between Slovakia and Libya. Domestic Policy -------------- ¶7. (U) Fico represents the center-left in Slovakia, and as such publicly opposes all of the Dzurinda government's economic reforms as too harsh on ordinary people. Smer endorsed the candidacy of Ivan Gasparovic, who will be inaugurated as President June 15. Both Gasparovic and Fico insist they have no longer-term political agreement. ¶8. (SBU) Fico generally supports greater social benefits for Slovak citizens, but capitalizes on anti-Roma sentiment by proposing to limit benefits. In January 2004 he recommended urgent measures because by 2015 there would be more than 1 million Roma living in Slovakia, out of which 800 thousand would be dependent on social benefits. In February 2004 Fico protested against the measures implemented by GOS to help Roma, saying &The rules have to be clear for Roma: First of all obligations and then rights. We are very much aware of who the Roma are who want to do nothing for the state and who simply ask for social security.8 ¶9. (U) In April 2004 the Confederation of Labor Unions (KOZ), claiming to have 600 thousand members, announced that it had made an agreement on cooperation with Fico,s SMER. KOZ leader Saktor said they will strive to integrate the left of center political parties and that KOZ would support SMER in the next parliamentary elections. Management Style -------------- ¶10. (C) Many Smer MP's have told us that the reason they were attracted to join the party is that they knew Fico and had been personally persuaded to enter politics with him. They say he is an open person who lets everyone express his/her ideas before making a decision. Others tell a different tale of rigid, top-down management. SDKU MP Vavrik, who co-chairs the defense committee led by SMER MP Kalinak, told us that before agreeing to anything, Kalinak goes into the hallway to call Ficoand get his blessing. Kalinak has also privately expressed surprise to embassy officers when told of certain Fico public statements. ¶11. (C) It is no secret among the political class that the man behind Fico, wealthy businessman Fedor Flasik, develops the public message and orchestrates the series of press conferences and media appearances to keep Fico's name in the headlines. Flasik's strategy is to be outrageous in order to attract media attention and stay at the top of the polls. While it has its intended effect with potential voters, the disconnect between what Fico says publicly and privately have earned him the reputation of being unreliable, or at least unpredictable, among possible coalition partners. This is also considered by many political analysts to be the explanation for his surprise defeat in the September 2002 parliamentary elections, as doubts about where he really stood on the issues caused voters to be cautious once they got into the voting booth. Themes for Discussions -------------- ¶12. (C) Fico is articulate and clever, and should be given the opportunity to present himself. He should also hear the U.S. point of view along the following lines: -- We respect the role of an opposition politician, and believe it is important in a democracy to foster healthy debate on issues. -- Nonetheless, there is a line of responsibility that a friend of the U.S. and NATO ally should not cross. -- Perpetuating myths such as "the invasion of Iraq was only for oil" and calling leaders who feared Iraq's WMD capacity "liars" is crossing that line. -- It is true that "actions speak," but words matter too. We register everything you say. Speaking against the U.S. as part of a populist political platform will damage your credibility with us. You will note that even at the height of disagreements with our European friends we -- and they -- do not question motives and principles. -- Being a true leader doesn't mean just polling voters and repeating their sentiments. It also means taking a principled stand and convincing your supporters to go along with it. This is especially relevant in foreign policy areas. WEISER NNNN