Presidential Election Preview

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SUBJECT: Presidential Election Preview


1. Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.


2. (SBU) Summary. Presidential elections will be held April
3, with a runoff on April 17 between the two leading
candidates if needed. Although the official campaign is the
two-week period before elections, several candidates are
already posting billboards and distributing literature with
general messages. Key individuals have yet to declare their
candidacy, but now that the election has been formally
announced, they have just 21 days to act. End summary.

What's at Stake
--------------


3. (SBU) Slovakia's President, as head of state, has
significant diplomatic responsibilities. His opinion,
expressed through public speeches and interactions with
other politicians, carries significant weight. He also
appoints and recalls government officials approved by
Parliament. He can also veto laws, but the veto is
relatively easily to overcome with 76 members (50 percent
plus one) of Parliament. Thus, his actual political power
is quite limited. This election will not necessarily serve
as a midterm barometer of attitudes toward Parliament or the
ruling coalition, as not all parties have presidential
candidates, and the election is much more about individual
personalities than about party politics.

The Rules of the Game
--------------


4. (SBU) Speaker of Parliament Pavol Hrusovsky made the
official announcement of presidential elections on January

8. Individuals now have to announce their candidacy within
21 days. Official campaigns may only take place in the two
weeks prior to the election. Elections will be held April
3, with a runoff on April 17 if needed. A runoff occurs
when no presidential candidate gains a majority of the
votes. Comment: With a crowded field, we fully expect there
will be a second round.


5. (U) In order to be eligible to run, candidates must
collect either the support of 15 MPs or 15,000 voters'
signatures. About a dozen individuals have met the
requirements well in advance. Many of these have
essentially started campaigning, giving speeches and, in the
case of Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan and ANO candidate
Lubomir Roman, posting billboards with general messages like
"Happy New Year."

Leading Contenders. and Non-Contenders
--------------


6. (SBU) President Schuster's term ends June 15. His
popularity has fallen significantly over the nearly four
years since his election. He has publicly stated that
family will be the deciding factor in whether he runs for
reelection, and his wife strongly prefers he not do so.
However, he told emboff January 10 he would run, and his
most recent public speeches (December 5 State of the Nation
and New Year's Day) took a populist stance that would be a
strong campaign platform.


7. (SBU) HZDS Chairman Vladimir Meciar, another popular
would-be candidate, has also not announced whether he will
run. Meciar has been very cagey in the press when
discussing his intentions. Meciar probably is struggling to
balance his desire to be back in the national spotlight with
the strong possibility that he would be defeated for a
second time. In the run-up to Parliamentary elections in
September 2002, Meciar was very sensitive to questions about
his finances and past actions as Prime Minister, even
punching a reporter on television who asked about how he
paid for Villa Elektra (his home that was refurbished at a
cost far exceeding what he could have afforded on a state
salary). Meciar may be hesitant to come under such scrutiny
again. There is no other clear leader within HZDS who could
be a strong candidate. If Meciar does not run, support may
fall to Ivan Gasparovic of the breakaway HZD party.
Gasparovic has the support of other former HZDS members now
in the "People's Union" party led by Vojtech Tkac, and of
the Jan Slota branch of the ultra-nationalist Slovak
National Party.


8. (U) Kukan, the official SDKU candidate, was the front-
runner in the first poll in early December and is now
slightly behind Meciar. His supporters have been
distributing door hangers, sponsoring billboards, holding
numerous functions for supporters and publishing a large
glossy biographical book about himself - all in general
terms so as to avoid being called "campaigning."


9. (SBU) Former Ambassador to the U.S. Martin Butora, while

running as an independent candidate, may peel off votes from
SDKU's dwindling pool of center-right voters, as would not-
yet-candidate SDKU breakaway leader and Free Forum founder
Ivan Simko.

Preliminary Polls
--------------


10. (U) Following is a list of both official and unannounced
candidates and party affiliations along with their latest
polling results from the MVK agency:
-- Vladimir Meciar (HZDS),20.1 percent
-- Eduard Kukan (SDKU),19.3 percent
-- Ivan Gasparovic (HZD),15.6 percent
-- Rudolf Schuster (President),10.3 percent
-- Martin Butora (no party affiliation, 15,000 signature
requirement in lieu of party support),6.9 percent
-- Lubomir Roman (ANO),6.3 percent
-- Frantisek Miklosko (KDH),4.2 percent
Announced candidates Jan Kralik of SDL; Jozef Prokes of
SNS2; former State Secretary of Foreign Affairs under Meciar
Jozef Sestak; Martin Mayor Stanislav Bernat; Roma and NGO-
supported candidate Mikulas Horvath; artist Elena
Schoppertova; German resident of Slovak origin Vojtech
Czobor; Swiss resident Julius Kubik; and former deputy Prime
Minister Jozef Kalman, did not receive statistically
significant support.

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) Comment. Schuster and Meciar are the wild cards at
present. Results may be significantly different if neither
throws his hat into the ring. Center-right foes of Meciar
almost hope he runs, as he would almost certainly lose in a
second round. Schuster would likely beat Meciar in a runoff
because people know what to expect from Schuster both
domestically and in the foreign policy arena. If Meciar
doesn't run, Gasparovic and the nationalist extremists could
see their numbers soar.

THAYER


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