SIMKO LOSES LEADERSHIP OF FREE FORUM

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000317

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR LO
SUBJECT: SIMKO LOSES LEADERSHIP OF FREE FORUM


1. (SBU) ON MARCH 26, THE FOUNDING CONGRESS OF FREE FORUM
(FF, A BREAK-AWAY PARTY FROM PM DZURINDA'S SDKU) TURNED INTO
DRAMA WHEN IVAN SIMKO FAILED TO WIN THE CHAIRMANSHIP IN HIS
NEW PARTY. INSTEAD, ZUZANA MARTINAKOVA WON BY A SINGLE VOTE
(131 VS. SIMKO'S 130). THE VISIBLY SHAKEN SIMKO RELUCTANTLY
ACCEPTED THE FIRST DEPUTY CHAIRMAN POSITION. FOUR OTHER
DEPUTY CHAIRS (JOZEF HURBAN, PETER BODY, BRANISLAV OPATERNY,
AND EVA HLAVACOVA) WERE ALSO ELECTED. ACCORDING TO SOME
ANALYSTS, THE VOTE REFLECTED A DIVISION IN OPINION IN THE
NEWLY ESTABLISHED PARTY: MARTINAKOVA REPRESENTS MORE
RADICAL OPPOSITION TO THE GOS AND SIMKO REPORTEDLY ADVOCATES
A MORE MODERATE STAND.

ALWAYS IN SECOND PLACE
--------------

2. (SBU) SIMKO'S FAILURE TO BE ELECTED CHAIRMAN CAME AS A
SURPRISE. SIMKO WAS NOT ABLE TO HIDE HIS DISAPPOINTMENT.
HIS IMMEDIATE REACTION TO JOURNALISTS WAS, "IF I WERE A REAL
MAN, I WOULD LEAVE." HOWEVER, HIS SUPPORTERS CONVINCED HIM
TO ACCEPT THE FIRST DEPUTY CHAIR. SOME POLITICAL ANALYSTS
POINTED OUT SIMKO'S TRACK RECORD: HE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A
SUCCESSFUL PARTY ORGANIZER, BUT SOMEONE ELSE SERVES AS THE
PUBLIC FACE. SIMKO HELPED TO ESTABLISH THE CHRISTIAN
DEMOCRAT PARTY (KDH),LATER SDK, AND THEN WITH DZURINDA THE
SDKU, BUT HE REMAINED NUMBER TWO IN ALL OF THEM. IT
HAPPENED AGAIN WITH FREE FORUM.


3. (SBU) HEAD OF THE IVO THINK TANK GRIGORIJ MESEZNIKOV TOLD
POLFSN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST CASE IN SLOVAK PARTY HISTORY
WHEN A FOUNDER FAILED TO WIN CHAIRMANSHIP. HE STATED THAT
MARTINAKOVA IS A MORE ACCEPTABLE CANDIDATE FOR THE PUBLIC
AND MAY GAIN MORE SUPPORT THAN THE OFTEN INDECISIVE AND
INCOMPREHENSIBLE SIMKO.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: THE DCM WAS TOLD BY A SENIOR ANO
POLITICIAN THAT FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM MARTINAKOVA'S HUSBAND
MARIAN BEDNAR (FORMER MOD ADVISOR TO SIMKO AND ALLEGED
MEMBER OF THE "SKUPINKA") HAS KEPT THE FF VIABLE. THIS
INFORMATION HAS NOT APPEARED PUBLICLY, BUT IF TRUE COULD
HAVE HELPED HER CANDIDACY. END COMMENT.

MORE RADICAL OPPOSITION
--------------

5. (SBU) THE ATTEMPT TO RECALL FINANCE MINISTER IVAN MIKLOS
EARLIER THIS MONTH PUBLICLY REVEALED THE DIVIDE IN THE FF.
WHILE SIMKO REFUSED TO SIDE WITH THE OPPOSITION, MARTINAKOVA
ADVOCATED MIKLOS'S RECALL AS WELL-DESERVED. IN THE END, FF
MP'S ABSTAINED FROM THE VOTE. PREVIOUSLY, THERE WERE HINTS
OF DISAGREEMENT WHEN SIMKO CONDITIONED ENTERING THE
GOVERNING COALITION ON DZURINDA'S RESIGNATION. SMK
INTERLOCUTORS SPECULATED AT THE TIME THAT SIMKO WAS
FOLLOWING ADVICE FROM OTHERS IN HIS NEW PARTY, BECAUSE HE
HAD NOT BEEN SO RADICAL IN PRIVATE DISCUSSIONS.


6. (SBU) REFLECTING THE IDEOLOGICAL SPLIT, AND THE CLAIM
THAT FF IS MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN THE SDKU, PARTY MEMBERS
INSISTED THAT BOTH SIMKO AND MARTINAKOVA RUN FOR
CHAIRMANSHIP. VIRTUALLY NO ONE EXPECTED THAT MARTINAKOVA
WOULD WIN SINCE SHE WAS SIMKO'S PROTEGE. HE BROUGHT HER
INTO POLITICS AS THE "FEMALE FACE" OF SDKU. SHE HAS MOVED
FAR FROM THAT ROLE. SHORTLY AFTER HER ELECTION, MARTINAKOVA
SAID THAT DZURINDA'S GOVERNMENT CAN NO LONGER RELY ON FF
SUPPORT. SHOULD THERE BE ANOTHER RECALL VOTE ON MIKLOS, THE
FF WOULD BACK IT, SHE ADDED.

BIO NOTES ON MARTINAKOVA
--------------

7. (SBU) MARTINAKOVA WAS BORN MAY 5, 1961 IN PUCHOV. SHE
STUDIED FRENCH AND SLOVAK LANGUAGES AT COMMENIUS UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF PHILOSPHY IN BRATISLAVA. BEFORE ENTERING
POLITICS, SHE WAS A JOURNALIST WITH SLOVAK RADIO, RADIO FREE
EUROPE, AND THE BBC. SHE HAS BEEN CHAIRWOMAN OF THE
"DEMOCRACY FOUNDATION" SINCE 2000, AND A MEMBER OF
PARLIAMENT SINCE 2002. HER CV STATES SHE IS FLUENT IN
ENGLISH AND FRENCH, ALTHOUGH REPORTEDLY SHE FEELS
UNCOMFORTABLE IN ENGLISH FROM LACK OF USE. SHE IS MARRIED
TO MARIAN BEDNAR AND THEY HAVE THREE CHILDREN.
COMMENT
--------------

8. (SBU) IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT EFFECT MARTINAKOVA'S
FIRMER STANCE AGAINST DZURINDA WILL HAVE ON THE COALITION'S
ABILITY TO GOVERN. FF WILL NOT ROCK THE BOAT BEFORE MAY 1
EU ACCESSION. IN THE PAST, MARTINAKOVA HAS MADE STRONG
STATEMENTS AND THEN BACKED DOWN. WHETHER SHE CAN MAKE FF
ENOUGH OF A PLAYER TO REMAIN ON THE POLITICAL SCENE BEYOND
THE NEXT ELECTIONS WILL BE HER BIGGEST CHALLENGE.

WEISER

NNNN