ARCHITECT OF ECONOMIC REFORMS TO BE SACKED?

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000206 SIPDIS SENSITIVE TREASURY FOR CHGREWE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON LO SUBJECT: ARCHITECT OF ECONOMIC REFORMS TO BE SACKED? SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (U) SLOVAK MINISTER OF FINANCE AND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER IVAN MIKLOS, THE ARCHITECT OF THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC REBIRTH OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS, FACES A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE IN THE NEAR FUTURE WHICH HE MAY NOT SURVIVE. ALL OPPOSITION GROUPS HAVE REPORTEDLY CLOSED RANKS ON THIS ISSUE AND ARE WITHIN TWO OR THREE VOTES OF REACHING THE SIMPLE MAJORITY OF 76 VOTES NEEDED IN PARLIAMENT. ECONOMIC REFORMS DESIGNED BY MIKLOS ARE BLAMED FOR SOCIAL UNREST AMONG SLOVAKIA'S ROMA MINORITY LAST WEEK AND GENERAL CONCERN AMONG THE COUNTRY'S POORER CLASSES. MIKLOS' FUTURE NOW APPEARS TO REST IN THE HANDS OF EIGHT OR NINE INDEPENDENT AND RENEGADE MPS. ¶2. (U) OPPOSITION LEADER ROBERT FICO OF THE SMER PARTY HAS LONG SOUGHT THIS ACTION AGAINST MIKLOS BUT COULD NEVER GAIN THE COOPERATION OF OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES. NOW, HOWEVER, VLADIMIR MECIAR OF THE HZDS PARTY HAS TAKEN THE LEAD AND WILL PETITION THE PARLIAMENT TO HOLD THE NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE. THE COMMUNIST PARTY AND SPLINTER OPPOSITION GROUPS QUICKLY JOINED THE CAUSE TO FORM THE STRONGEST THREAT YET TO MIKLOS. THE OPPOSITION APPEARS TO HAVE 73 OR 74 VOTES AGAINST MIKLOS, INCLUDING SEVEN DEPUTIES FROM IVAN SIMKO'S FREE FORUM PLATFORM WHO FORMERLY WERE PART OF PRIME MINISTER MIKULAS DZURINDA'S SDKU PARTY IN THE RULING COALITION. ¶3. (SBU) COMMENT: THE PROPOSAL FOR MIKLOS' OUSTER WILL LIKELY BE DELIVERED TO PARLIAMENT NEXT WEEK AND ACTED UPON WITHIN SEVEN DAYS ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE DELAYED AS LONG AS 30 DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME, BOTH SIDES WILL BE COURTING THE HANDFUL OF MPS WHO HAVE NOT COMMITTED THEIR VOTES. THE PROSPECT OF BACKROOM DEALS WILL COMPLICATE THIS ISSUE, FURTHER MAKING A CLEAR READING DIFFICULT TO GIVE. IF THE NO- CONFIDENCE VOTE SUCCEEDS, MIKLOS WILL LOSE HIS MINISTRY BUT REMAIN A DEPUTY, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE REPORTS HE MIGHT RESIGN TO ENTER THE PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO. WHILE THE GOS WOULD SUFFER A POLITICAL DEFEAT, IT WOULD NOT MEAN THE GOVERNMENT WOULD FALL; MANY MORE DEPUTIES ARE PREPARED TO COUNTENANCE SACKING THE SOMETIMES ARROGANT MIKLOS THAN ARE PREPARED TO UNSEAT THE ENTIRE COALITION. THAYER NNNN