ARCHITECT OF ECONOMIC REFORMS TO BE SACKED?

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000206

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

TREASURY FOR CHGREWE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON LO
SUBJECT: ARCHITECT OF ECONOMIC REFORMS TO BE SACKED?

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.


1. (U) SLOVAK MINISTER OF FINANCE AND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER
IVAN MIKLOS, THE ARCHITECT OF THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC REBIRTH
OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS, FACES A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE IN THE
NEAR FUTURE WHICH HE MAY NOT SURVIVE. ALL OPPOSITION GROUPS
HAVE REPORTEDLY CLOSED RANKS ON THIS ISSUE AND ARE WITHIN
TWO OR THREE VOTES OF REACHING THE SIMPLE MAJORITY OF 76
VOTES NEEDED IN PARLIAMENT. ECONOMIC REFORMS DESIGNED BY
MIKLOS ARE BLAMED FOR SOCIAL UNREST AMONG SLOVAKIA'S ROMA
MINORITY LAST WEEK AND GENERAL CONCERN AMONG THE COUNTRY'S
POORER CLASSES. MIKLOS' FUTURE NOW APPEARS TO REST IN THE
HANDS OF EIGHT OR NINE INDEPENDENT AND RENEGADE MPS.


2. (U) OPPOSITION LEADER ROBERT FICO OF THE SMER PARTY HAS
LONG SOUGHT THIS ACTION AGAINST MIKLOS BUT COULD NEVER GAIN
THE COOPERATION OF OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES. NOW, HOWEVER,
VLADIMIR MECIAR OF THE HZDS PARTY HAS TAKEN THE LEAD AND
WILL PETITION THE PARLIAMENT TO HOLD THE NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE.
THE COMMUNIST PARTY AND SPLINTER OPPOSITION GROUPS QUICKLY
JOINED THE CAUSE TO FORM THE STRONGEST THREAT YET TO MIKLOS.
THE OPPOSITION APPEARS TO HAVE 73 OR 74 VOTES AGAINST
MIKLOS, INCLUDING SEVEN DEPUTIES FROM IVAN SIMKO'S FREE
FORUM PLATFORM WHO FORMERLY WERE PART OF PRIME MINISTER
MIKULAS DZURINDA'S SDKU PARTY IN THE RULING COALITION.


3. (SBU) COMMENT: THE PROPOSAL FOR MIKLOS' OUSTER WILL
LIKELY BE DELIVERED TO PARLIAMENT NEXT WEEK AND ACTED UPON
WITHIN SEVEN DAYS ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE DELAYED AS LONG AS 30
DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME, BOTH SIDES WILL BE COURTING THE
HANDFUL OF MPS WHO HAVE NOT COMMITTED THEIR VOTES. THE
PROSPECT OF BACKROOM DEALS WILL COMPLICATE THIS ISSUE,
FURTHER MAKING A CLEAR READING DIFFICULT TO GIVE. IF THE NO-
CONFIDENCE VOTE SUCCEEDS, MIKLOS WILL LOSE HIS MINISTRY BUT
REMAIN A DEPUTY, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE REPORTS HE MIGHT RESIGN
TO ENTER THE PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO. WHILE
THE GOS WOULD SUFFER A POLITICAL DEFEAT, IT WOULD NOT MEAN
THE GOVERNMENT WOULD FALL; MANY MORE DEPUTIES ARE PREPARED
TO COUNTENANCE SACKING THE SOMETIMES ARROGANT MIKLOS THAN
ARE PREPARED TO UNSEAT THE ENTIRE COALITION.

THAYER

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