Slovakia Political Roundup February 7-27, 2004

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SUBJECT: Slovakia Political Roundup February 7-27, 2004



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Same Date, Separate Elections
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2. (SBU) The referendum on early parliamentary elections,
though scheduled for the same day as the presidential
election, will not be on the same ballot because the
referendum requires a different electoral commission and
polling station. Speculation that polling places for the
two votes could end up across town is likely not true
(separate rooms is more probable) but as a result of the
separation the cost will be the same as if the elections
were held on separate dates. There will still be
disincentives for voters, since they will have to wait in
two separate lines to vote in both elections. Smer MP
Kalinak told poloffs Smer is divided about supporting Rudolf
Schuster for re-election; some in the party prefer Ivan
Gasparovic. Kalinak added that Foreign Minister Eduard
Kukan's closeness to PM Dzurinda, considering coalition
troubles and upset over the fast pace of economic reforms,
may hurt Kukan at the polls.

OSCE May Want to Monitor Election
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3. (SBU) OSCE representatives told polec officers that while
they are confident in the electoral process, they are
considering a monitoring mission because some member states
are concerned about the pairing of the presidential election
and a referendum on early Parliamentary elections, and about
Vladimir Meciar's participation.

Gasparovic: If I Get to Second Round, I Could Win...
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4. (SBU) Movement for Democracy (HZD) Chairman Ivan
Gasparovic told poloffs on February 24 that he expects the
first round of presidential elections to be tough, but if he
happened to make it to the second round, Gasparovic said he
could win. He laments lack of funding and visibility
compared to the three candidates ahead of him in the polls,
who are in government and appear frequently in the media.
He expects support from the six percent of voters who
indicate a preference for the Slovak National Party, saying
they support Zilina mayor Jan Slota's wing, not that of
Peter Sulovsky (whom he called a "nobody"). He rejected the
idea that he was allying with extremists and said his
Coalition of National Forces will serve to push extremism
out of nationally-oriented parties. If Meciar wins, it
might be a good thing, Gasparovic said, as Meciar would
concentrate on the office, protecting his property, and
ensuring his and his children's financial safety, leaving
the top post in HZDS open for Gasparovic to claim. In
Gasparovic's opinion, the two men have no hope for
reconciliation. (Comment: Gasparovic has been somewhat
marginalized since his split with Meciar and HZDS before the
2002 election in which his HZD did not make it to
Parliament. He has no realistic chance of winning the
presidency, but he will have raised his own and his party's
profile substantially).

SMK: Closer to a Presidential Choice
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5. (SBU) Recent press reports indicate the Party of the
Hungarian Coalition (SMK) will endorse KDH presidential
candidate Frantisek Miklosko, which would boost his chances.
(Comment: SMK supporters tend to follow voting
recommendations from their party.) If the run-off ends with
Meciar and Schuster, SMK Secretary General Peter Voros and
Spokeswoman Livia Pokstaller privately told us SMK would
support Schuster. They explained that party chair Bela
Bugar and others sees the coalition problems as damaging
Slovakia's stability and image abroad and discouraging
investors. They suggested the current ad-hoc assembly of
support for the minority government is not a long-term
solution for the coalition troubles.


6. (SBU) SMK is very happy about the new Hungarian
University in Komarno, which will give opportunities to
ethnic Hungarians in southern Slovakia (but it is not
running at full capacity yet). The SMK leaders said Deputy
Prime Minister Pal Csaky has been losing influence in SMK
lately, is not very capable and is no longer supported by
most SMK voters, as was the case in the past election term.
But, they were pleasantly surprised by the successful
outcome of Csaky's negotiations with KDH Justice Minister
Daniel Lipsic that led to Cabinet approval of an anti-
discrimination law.

Slovak-Hungarian Agreement on Ethnic Minorities in Force
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7. (SBU) The Slovak-Hungarian agreement on mutual support
for ethnic minorities came into effect February 13 after
some delays relating to administration of benefits to
Slovaks in Hungary. SMK spokesmen publicly opined in
January that this would help the Kukan campaign among
Hungarian voters. But contacts have told poloffs there is
still friction over the Hungarian Status law, which the GOS
feels has extraterritorial and discriminatory elements. The
GOS would prefer that the Hungarians address all issues
affecting the Hungarian minority in Slovakia through the
existing bilateral agreement and reciprocal benefits for
minorities in both countries.

Sulovsky's Slovak National Party: We Are Not Extreme
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8. (SBU) Poloffs met with official Slovak National Party
(SNS) Chairman Peter Sulovsky and Vice-chairman Viliam
Oberhauser to discuss the party's plans and the recent
conflict over leadership of the party (a court ruled in
Sulovsky's favor, but Zilina mayor Jan Slota still claims to
be the party's true leader). Sulovsky is interested in
moving away from the radical SNS Slota represents. Sulovsky
supports the EU, though cautioning the integration process
should be slower; NATO accession is no longer an issue for
this SNS. He said the economic reforms are necessary, but
the government should have assessed their impact better so
as to prevent the current unrest. Sulovsky said the 6
percent of voters who indicate support for SNS in most polls
mean his party, not Slota's. He added that his party is
more respected abroad and that his concept of a "national
party" will become more important in the EU. The SNS
perceives the U.S. Republican Party as its ideological ally
(as does Gasparovic). SNS has not chosen a presidential
candidate to support but is leaning toward Meciar. SNS
could work with most other parties, particularly KDH and
even SMK, as he said even the Hungarian minority has the
same economic concerns as everyone else.

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