MFA VIEW ON UKRAINE'S PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000127 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2013 TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV LO UP SLOVAK UKRAINE SUBJECT: MFA VIEW ON UKRAINE'S PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT REF: A. BRATISLAVA 101 B. KIEV 129 CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR RONALD WEISER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) POLOFF CALLED ON MFA UKRAINE DESK OFFICER PETER VIZDAL FOR A GENERAL DISCUSSION ON SLOVAK-UKRAINE RELATIONS. VIZDAL POINTED OUT THAT SLOVAKIA SIGNED THE EU DECLARATION CRITICIZING A PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO ALLOW KUCHMA TO RUN FOR A THIRD TERM (REF B),AS A MATTER OF COMMON FOREIGN POLICY LOOKING AHEAD TO EU INTEGRATION. VIZDAL, WHO SPENT THE LAST FOUR YEARS AT THE SLOVAK EMBASSY IN KIEV, ADDED THAT SLOVAKIA IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE ISSUE AND IS TROUBLED BY THE AMENDMENT. HE PREDICTED THAT THE AMENDMENT WOULD PASS TO THE SECOND READING, AND NOTED THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT IN UKRAINE HAS ALREADY RULED THAT THE AMENDMENT WOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM. ¶2. (C) VIZDAL EMPHASIZED THAT UKRAINE IS USUALLY UNRESPONSIVE TO "DECLARATIONS" AND IN FACT WILL TEND TO DO THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT IS ASKED. AS FOR SLOVAKIA'S INFLUENCE, VIZDAL NOTED THAT WHILE SLOVAKIA AND UKRAINE HAVE A GOOD DIALOGUE, UKRAINE SEES ITSELF AS A REGIONAL LEADER THAT, WITH ITS POPULATION OF 50 MILLION, HAS LITTLE REASON TO LISTEN TO SLOVAKIA, A COUNTRY ONE-TENTH UKRAINE'S SIZE. HISTORICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY, POLAND HAS BEEN A MUCH CLOSER PARTNER WITH UKRAINE. IF THE UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT DOES APPROVE THE AMENDMENT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE SLOVAKIA CAN DO. VIZDAL ALSO OBSERVED THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE NO OTHER CANDIDATE BESIDES KUCHMA WHO HAS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO BE ABLE TO GOVERN UKRAINE. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: MFA OFFICIALS HAVE TOLD US IN THE PAST THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO DEVELOP "NICHE CAPABILITIES" IN FOREIGN POLICY, INCLUDING THE BALKANS AND SLOVAKIA'S EASTERN NEIGHBORS. POLICY TOWARD UKRAINE, BELARUS, MOLDOVA AND OTHER FORMER STATES OF THE USSR WILL BE A MAJOR THEME OF DISCUSSION AT THE MARCH 18-19 BRATISLAVA II CONFERENCE HOSTED BY PM DZURINDA. WHILE PRESIDENT SCHUSTER'S VIEW OF KUCHMA (REF A) IS COLORED BY THEIR FRIENDSHIP, LOWER LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT ARE PRODUCTIVELY ENGAGING UKRAINIAN COUNTERPARTS ON ISSUES SUCH AS BETTER LAW-ENFORCEMENT COOPERATION AT THE BORDER. SLOVAKIA CAN'T INFLUENCE UKRAINE SINGLE-HANDEDLY, BUT WOULD SUPPORT A V-4, EU, OR U.S. INITIATIVE THAT ENGAGES REFORM-ORIENTED UKRAINE LEADERS. THAYER NNNN