ETHNIC HUNGARIAN AND SLOVAK PARTIES SQUARE OFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 001115

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINR LO
SUBJECT: ETHNIC HUNGARIAN AND SLOVAK PARTIES SQUARE OFF

Classified By: DCM Scott N. Thayer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Relations between the Hungarian Coalition Party
(SMK) and the other three parties of the governing coalition
have suffered due to what many ethnic Slovak politicians see
as growing radicalism within the SMK. During the summer, the
SMK demanded that parliament adopt Hungarian as an official
language, renewed public discussion about "autonomy" for
parts of southern Slovakia, and pushed for a new Environment
Fund beyond the control of the Ministry of Finance. These
initiatives came against a backdrop of concern among Slovak
politicians that SMK-led local government decisions
concerning education and employment were increasingly being
made according to ethnicity. Slovak parties decided to
counter these trends by uniting forces against the SMK in the
next local elections in certain regions, to which Hungarian
politicians reacted angrily. Distrust between the Hungarian
party and coalition partners will likely increase in the
lead-up to regional and parliamentary elections.
Nonetheless, the SMK remains a strong supporter of PM
Dzurinda's reform agenda, and the government will not fall
over these disagreements. End Summary.

New Cracks in the Relationship
--------------


2. (SBU) In contrast to the first Dzurinda government
(1998-2002) when SMK threatened to withdraw from the
coalition on a number of occasions, the current coalition has
maintained stable relations. SMK has defended unpopular
initiatives from Hungary, such as the Status Law and the
recent referendum on dual citizenship for all ethnic
Hungarians, but the GOS overcame these differences of
opinion. However, relations between the SMK and other
government members have become strained along ethnic lines in
the lead up to regional elections in November 2005.


3. (C) In August, three separate SDKU officials told us that
the SMK seemed increasingly radical with demands to speak
Hungarian in Parliament and talk of "autonomy" in some
regions of southern Slovakia. Tatiana Rosova, Dzurinda's
public opinion advisor, mentioned that the prime minister was
unhappy about SMK's statements, which he believed were
supported not only by a few outspoken nationalistic
politicians, but also by SMK Chairman Bela Bugar. (Note:
According to November polling, Bela Bugar ranked as the third
most trusted Slovak politician, ahead of all other members of
the GOS). Rosova added that the SMK strategically had waited
until EU entry to launch new initiatives concerning ethnic
issues. Kamil Homola, Director of the SDKU's central office,
expressed concern about complaints from ethnic Slovaks in
mostly-Hungarian villages that SMK has pushed many Slovaks
out of local positions. He also confided that SDKU MEPs said
SMK MEPs were more interested in representing Hungarian
concerns in Brussels, than in speaking for Slovakia. SDKU MP
Tomas Galbavy stated that recent demands went beyond
acceptable limits. He added that the SMK is strongly
influenced by the Hungarian party FIDESZ and its chairman
Viktor Orban, who encourages ethnic Hungarians to press for
greater autonomy.

Ganging-Up on Hungarians
--------------


4. (C) Recently, SDKU started discussions in the Nitra region
on forming local coalitions, excluding the SMK but leaving
the door open to other Slovak parties including Vladimir
Meciar's HZDS. Nitra has one of the largest ethnic Hungarian
populations. SMK politicians reacted angrily even though in
the previous regional elections they ran on a single ticket.
In 2001, SMK swept four districts in Nitra claiming nearly 60
percent of the vote. The three remaining districts went to
an opposition coalition (HZDS, Smer, SDL, SOP),without a
single seat gained by other governing coalition parties. A
similar situation occurred in Trnava where the SMK won 14
seats and the Christian Democrats (KDH) received two seats,
with the remainder of the 40 seats going to a coalition of
opposition parties. In the Kosice region, SMK ran with SDKU
and Smer, and they won the majority of seats. (Note: In the
2001 regional elections, most coalitions at the local level
were formed independen of national politics based on local
conditions and personalities.) SMK appealed to coalition
partners to open negotiations in Nitra, but so far there has
been no response.


5. (C) Dzurinda stated that current discussions about
candidate lists are not meant to "be against" any one party,
but are intended to allow each party to successfully utilize
its potential in the region. MP Alexej Ivanko from the
break-away Freedom Forum confirmed that local coalitions of
Slovak parties in some regions will likely be formed
consisting of both governmental and opposition candidates.
He said Slovak politicians are growing increasingly concerned
with the SMK monopoly in Nitra and suspect that money is not
being equitably distributed. Even some prominent ethnic

Hungarian activists commented that the Hungarian dominance in
the region has lead to increased cronyism and misconduct.

SMK Hungarian Nationalists Strengthen
--------------


6. (C) The push by SMK to adopt Hungarian as an official
language of Parliament created concern not only among Slovak
coalition members, but also among some SMK members. SMK MP
Pal Farkas told poloffs that he was not pleased about the
ultimate direction of the party after Miklos Duray's
Coexistence faction, formerly a stand-alone Hungarian
nationalist party before joining the SMK, was significantly
strengthened in the last party elections. At the 2003 party
congress, Duray's wing won five of the eight
vice-chairmanships of the party; both MEPs elected on the SMK
ticket are Duray supporters. At a recent party congress, SMK
leaders decided to ignore party statutes requiring elections
to replace officers that left for the European Parliament, in
order not to further strengthen Duray's position. (Comment:
There is real difference of opinion about the long-term role
of Coexistence. Some other SMK members are dismissive,
portraying its adherents as largely older, rural, and less
educated, and thus destined for eventual political oblivion.
Others, however, note that since he is the only senior SMK
leader without a government position, he has the time and
ability to act independent politically. He also is the most
active in trying organize and influence Hungarian youth. End
Comment.)


7. (C) SMK Chairman Bela Bugar told the Ambassador that the
rhetoric is just that--mostly superficial. He reminded the
Ambassador that the SMK is also a coalition party, with three
wings that he must hold together. Therefore, he must do lip
service to some of the more extreme views. (Comment: United,
the SMK wins a steady 10-11 percent of the vote. If it were
to split, there might not be any Hungarians in government
because the micro-parties probably would not obtain the
required 5 percent minimum. End comment.)

New Ministry Environment Fund Criticized
--------------


8. (SBU) In October, SMK Environmental Minister Laszlo Miklos
proposed creating an off-budget fund for environmental
projects to distribute approximately one billion SKK (33
million USD). Coalition parties opposed the idea, saying
that the fund would be ineligible for audit, which sets a
dangerous precedent and is not transparent. SMK overturned a
presidential veto of the law creating the new fund with the
support of opposition parties, which was the first time SMK
lobbied across the aisle. Observers predict that this new
fund will be the SMK "cash cow" used to pay for favors and
finance election campaigns.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) SMK has been a reliable partner in the governing
coalition. Bela Bugar has openly criticized PM Dzurinda's
leadership style, and even suggested he resign after Ivan
Simko resigned from the SDKU with several other MP's, but the
personality conflicts did not hinder the government's reform
program. As Slovakia enters the pre-election period
(regional elections are scheduled for November 2005 and
national elections for November 2006),the SMK is focused on
its own political agenda and on rewarding supporters. The
ongoing debates on minority issues, especially the December 5
referendum in Hungary on dual citizenship for all ethnic
Hungarians, are likely to energize voters and further
strengthen the nationalist wing in SMK. Thus there will be a
multi-layerd relationship between the "Slovak" coalition
parties and the SMK. They will cooperate on a national
agenda while competing for electoral seats at the local
level, and will keep a careful watch on SMK management of the
Environment and Construction Ministries that control generous
resources from EU funds.
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