AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH PRESIDENT SCHUSTER ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000101

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR LO EG UP
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH PRESIDENT SCHUSTER ON
UKRAINE, EGYPT, PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: KIEV 129

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR RONALD WEISER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. AMBASSADOR WEISER MET WITH SLOVAK PRESIDENT
RUDOLF SCHUSTER ON JANUARY 28. THEY DISCUSSED HIS
CONVERSATION THAT MORNING WITH UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT LEONID
KUCHMA, WHO IS SEEKING A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO ALLOW
FOR HIS REELECTION. SCHUSTER ALSO DESCRIBED HIS SUCCESSFUL
TALKS WITH EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT HOSNI MUBARAK DURING HIS TRIP
TO EGYPT. SCHUSTER CONFIRMED HIS CANDIDACY FOR REELECTION
AND OFFERED PREDICTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN
SLOVAKIA. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PRESIDENT SCHUSTER TOLD THE AMBASSADOR IN A JANUARY 28
MEETING THAT HE HAD THAT MORNING RECEIVED A CALL FROM
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT LEONID KUCHMA, WHO SAID HE BELIEVES HE
HAS THE NECESSARY SUPPORT IN PARLIAMENT FOR A CONSTITUTIONAL
AMENDMENT TO ALLOW HIM TO RUN FOR REELECTION. KUCHMA ALSO
TOLD HIM THAT SIMILAR CALLS HAD BEEN MADE TO THE LEADERS OF
HUNGARY AND POLAND. THE AMENDMENT, WHICH NEEDS SIXTY PERCENT
OF THE VOTES IN PARLIAMENT TO PASS, WOULD CHANGE THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCEDURE FROM A POPULAR VOTE TO A
PARLIAMENTARY VOTE (FURTHER DETAILS REFTEL). SCHUSTER SAID
KUCHMA THINKS ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF MPS WILL SUPPORT THE
AMENDMENT. THE APPROXIMATELY 100 SUPPORTERS OF VIKTOR
YUSHCHENKO WOULD OPPOSE IT. SCHUSTER NOTED THAT KUCHMA HAD
REVERSED WHAT HE TOLD HIM LAST YEAR, WHEN HE SAID HE WOULD BE
LEAVING THE PRESIDENCY. SCHUSTER ALSO SAID THAT IF REMAINING
AS PRESIDENT WAS NOT A CONSTITUTIONAL VIOLATION, IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT FOR SLOVAKIA TO BE CRITICAL OF ITS NEIGHBOR.


3. (C) DURING HIS TRIP TO EGYPT, SCHUSTER HAD A 50-MINUTE
ONE-ON-ONE MEETING WITH PRESIDENT HOSNI MUBARAK THAT WAS
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR TEN MINUTES. SCHUSTER DESCRIBED THE
MEETING AS EXCEEDINGLY CORDIAL. MUBARAK EXPRESSED STRONG
APPRECIATION AND SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. POSITION ON MIDDLE EAST
PEACE TALKS. HE SAID HE UNDERSTOOD THE SLOVAK POSITION IN
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. BOTH MORALLY AND WITH TROOPS
ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ. SCHUSTER TOLD THE AMBASSADOR HE FELT
HE DEVELOPED A GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH MUBARAK, WHICH WAS
REFLECTED IN SOME VERY SUBSTANTIAL AGREEMENTS SIGNED FOR
FUTURE SLOVAK-EGYPTIAN COMMERCE. HE SAID THAT THE MINISTERS
THAT HE MET WITH THE FOLLOWING DAY HAD RELAYED TO HIM THAT
THEY HAD BEEN GIVEN CLEAR INSTRUCTIONS BY MUBARAK TO MEET THE
SLOVAK REQUESTS. THERE WERE ALSO DISCUSSIONS OF EGYPT
POSSIBLY BUYING SLOVAK-MANUFACTURED ARMS IN THE FUTURE.


4. (C) SCHUSTER ALSO MENTIONED THAT HE HAD BEEN INVITED BY
BAVARIA PREMIER EDMUND STOIBER, THE OPPOSITION CANDIDATE IN
GERMANY'S LAST CHANCELLOR'S RACE, TO MEET IN MUNICH AT THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. HE INTENDS TO GO TO MUNICH AND DISCUSS,
AMONG OTHER THINGS, SLOVAK SUPPORT FOR THE POLISH POSITION ON
THE EU CONSTITUTION.


5. (C) ON INTERNAL POLITICS, SCHUSTER INDICATED THAT HE, AND
MOVEMENT FOR A DEMOCRATIC SLOVAKIA (HZDS) CHAIRMAN VLADIMIR
MECIAR, WOULD BOTH RUN FOR PRESIDENT. SCHUSTER PREDICTED HE
AND MECIAR WOULD BATTLE FOR THE SECOND SPOT IN A RUNOFF WITH
FOREIGN MINISTER EDUARD KUKAN. MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRACY (HZD)
CANDIDATE IVAN GASPAROVIC'S SUPPORT WILL BEGIN TO DROP,
SCHUSTER SAID. WHEN THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHY MECIAR WOULD
RUN, REALIZING HE COULD NOT WIN, SCHUSTER EXPLAINED THIS WAS
PART OF MECIAR'S AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOVAK DEMOCRATIC AND
CHRISTIAN UNION (SDKU) UNDER WHICH HZDS WILL SUPPLY
UNOFFICIAL SUPPORT TO THE MINORITY GOVERNMENT IN RETURN FOR
THEM "LEAVING HIM ALONE." SCHUSTER EXPECTS SUPPORTERS OF THE
SMER PARTY WILL SPLIT ON THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, WITH THOSE
LED BY PARTY VICE-CHAIR MONIKA BENOVA AND BRATISLAVANS
SUPPORTING GASPAROVIC AND SMER SUPPORTERS IN EASTERN SLOVAKIA
VOTING FOR SCHUSTER. FIVE SMER DEPUTIES FROM THE KOSICE
REGION HELPED COLLECT THE SIGNATURES OF 15 MPS SUPPORTING HIS
CANDIDACY, SCHUSTER SAID, AND NEARLY 50,000 SIGNATURES HAVE
BEEN COLLECTED FROM THE PUBLIC SO FAR, WITH ONLY 15,000
NEEDED.


6. (C) SCHUSTER CONFIRMED TO THE AMBASSADOR THE IMPORTANCE
THAT HE GIVES TO THE SLOVAK/U.S. RELATIONSHIP AND THAT HE
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO STRENGTHEN IT.
WEISER

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