LULA SUFFERS TWIN SETBACKS IN CONGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001144 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2014 TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI BR SUBJECT: LULA SUFFERS TWIN SETBACKS IN CONGRESS REF: A. BRASILIA 0572 ¶B. BRASILIA 0776 Classified By: POLOFF RICHARD REITER, FOR REASONS 1.4B AND D. ¶1. (C) On May 5, two developments starkly demonstrated the Lula administration's reduced authority in Congress and the weakness of the coalition's Congressional leadership. The first development was the creation of a joint congressional committee to discuss the increase in the minimum wage that President Lula recently announced. Had it been more adroit, the PT could have prevented the committee from being formed and/or prevented its leadership from being dominated by opposition parties. The coalition parties will now have to suffer through criticism of Lula's small increase in the minimum wage --amplified by the fact that this is an election year. The second setback was the revocation of Lula's earlier ban on bingo parlors, which he issued in response to February's Waldomiro Diniz scandal. Ultimately, neither event is likely to have substantive effect, as the minimum wage will likely stay at the Lula-decreed level and the bingo parlors could well end up either banned or tightly regulated. But the message is clear: through a combination of incompetence and waning authority, the Lula administration's control over Congress has been attenuated. END SUMMARY. MINIMUM WAGE TO BE REVIEWED BY A JOINT COMMITTEE -------------- --- ¶2. (C) On May 5, the opposition in the Brazilian Congress succeeded in setting up a joint committee to review Lula's recent decree (MP 182) that raised Brazil's minimum wage from R$240 to R$260 (about USD 87) per month. That raise is barely above inflation and is considered insufficient by some in Lula's own PT party. It has been used by opponents to show how Lula's fiscal austerity is hurting Brazilian workers. (N.b., presidential decrees (MPs) must be ratified by Congress to remain in force. Sometimes a joint committee first reviews the MP, which then goes to the floor. However, the preference of the government is simply to not appoint a committee --thus avoiding messy hearings-- meaning the MP goes straight to the floor where it generally gets easy approval.) ¶3. (C) The joint committee was formed when several members of the governing coalition signed the opposition's petition supporting it. For example, PT Senator Paulo Paim has pressed for a larger increase in the minimum wage, and he signed in order to register his displeasure with Lula's small increase. On the other hand, Green Party Deputy Sarney Filho signed without understanding what he was doing. He later complained that the coalition leadership had failed to stay on top of the issue and keep members advised. Opposition members won all of the committee's key leadership posts, and Sen. Paim was among several coalition members removed from the committee by their party leaders as punishment for their mini-rebellion. ¶4. (C) For all the arcane parliamentary tactics, the formation of a committee to review MP 182 means there will be public hearings, a public report, and public votes, causing a political headache for Lula and his loyalists, who will now have to put their preference for a smaller increase on record. The opposition will fan the debate for partisan purposes in advance of the October municipal elections. Ultimately, the minimum wage is unlikely to change (especially since Lula has various ways to veto any increase over R$260),but these events demonstrate the GoB's weakness in Congress, the unhappiness of some members of the PT-led coalition, and the organizational failure of the coalition's leadership, who should have headed off this development. The minimum wage is a fight that Lula never expected to have to wage in Congress, and it is a poor use of his limited political capital. BINGO REVERSAL ANOTHER SETBACK FOR LULA -------------- ¶5. (C) The second May 5 blow to the administration was the Senate rejection of another presidential decree: MP 168 that Lula issued in February to ban bingo and slot parlors. That MP was Lula's first and firmest response to the "Waldomiro Diniz scandal" (ref A). MP 168 shut down the 9,000 legal parlors around the country, and it has been fiercely opposed by the estimated 70,000 gaming employees thrown out of work. It is widely believed here that the parlors are linked to organized crime, so few public officials have spoken out against Lula's decision to close them. ¶6. (C) On March 30, the Chamber of Deputies ratified the MP, although coalition squabbling forced Lula to disburse pork spending to secure the necessary votes (ref B). The measure should have easily passed into law when it reached the Senate floor on May 5, but the opposition simply outsmarted the coalition's floor leaders. In the end, the MP was defeated by a 33-31 vote. Emblematic of their own confusion, coalition leaders seemed shocked by the defeat, never realizing that they had failed to count noses: the MP failed by two votes, yet four PT members were absent, including, amazingly, the coalition's floor leader, Sen. Aloizio Mercadante. Six other coalition Senators were absent and eight voted against the MP. The defeat of the bingo MP is being called by some Lula's first real defeat in Congress since he took office. The symbolic import of MP 168 --Lula's response to an in-house scandal and to organized crime-- should have made it a must-win for his congressional coalition, but they let him down. DEFEAT HAS A HUNDRED FATHERS -------------- ¶7. (C) The bingo ban is being autopsied in the daily newspapers, but those most responsible for its death include the PT leaders in the Senate, Ideli Salvatti and Aloizio Mercadante, who failed to do the necessary whip-work to line up and count their votes. Six of the coalition's 22 PMDB Senators voted against the MP, one more example of how the divisions in that party are damaging Lula's agenda. Delighted gaming operators began reopening the next day, but their glee is likely to be short-lived. Lula is preparing a bill that would have the same effect as the defeated MP 168, banning bingo and slots. The opposition --not wishing to be perceived as pro-organized crime-- is drafting its own bill that would allow some parlors to remain open while banning slot machines. Few in the opposition are pro-bingo, they simply saw the opportunity to defeat Lula's disorganized coalition on a key bill, and they took it. COMMENT - PT'S CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP IN DISARRAY -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) The events in Congress on May 5 highlight three dynamics: abysmal work on the floor by the coalition's leadership --and particularly the PT caucus in the Senate; displeasure among many in the PT with the small increase in the minimum wage, which is a real problem for a labor party; and continued divisions in the coalition's large, fractious PMDB party. Last week's events will, and will not, have consequences. The minimum wage will probably stay at the R$260 level that Lula decreed, and bingo parlors may well be closed down again. But the bigger picture is that it is no longer clear that Lula and the PT exert enough control over their own coalition to win key Congressional votes, which will limit the administration's ability to pursue its policy agenda. ¶9. (C) This is not exactly new. The coalition relied on many opposition votes to pass the pension and tax reforms last year and will continue to attract those votes on upcoming issues like judicial reform and biotechnology. But in another sense, the coalition has never been weaker. The PTB and PP parties ceaselessly clamor for pork spending and are not shy about obstructing the administration's agenda. The large PMDB has never been less reliable, and in addition to its normal fractiousness, it is now riven by a dispute between two of its leading senators (Jose Sarney and Renan Calheiros) over who will be the next Senate majority leader. And as noted, the PT's floor leaders in the Senate fell down on the job last week, while party dissidents complained about the small minimum wage increase. This dispute will not go away, and some PT members may defy party orders and vote against the R$260 wage when the MP comes to the floor. ¶10. (C) Finally, the coalition's weakness is causing distrust between the two houses. Last year, the Chamber defied difficult publicity and sent tough, responsible pension and tax reform bills to the Senate, only to see the Senate water them down and get credit from voters. The Senate is inherently less-disciplined than the Chamber, more subject to grandstanding and less willing to follow party directives. The Senate's maneuvers last week only reinforced the perception among Deputies that Senators will steal the glory but not share the pain on controversial issues. If this perception is not remedied, it may make the Chamber gunshy and unwilling to vote for tough reform bills in the future. HRINAK