TURKEY: OPPOSITION LEFT-OF-CENTER CHP LIMPING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000994

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION LEFT-OF-CENTER CHP LIMPING
TOWARD LOCAL ELECTIONS

(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter.
Reason: 1.5 (b,d).



1. (C) Summary: Main opposition CHP's chances in March 28
local elections are dim, according to our own extensive
contacts with party M.P.s and recent polling data. A few CHP
M.P.s are growing more critical of party leadership but have
not shown the courage of their convictions by speaking out
publicly against chairman Baykal and his cronies for their
misguided policies. In addition, internal party dysfunction
is compounding the difficulty the party has long had in
connecting to a Turkish public grown weary of CHP's negative
message and fear-mongering. End summary.


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Out of Touch -- Still
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2. (C) A broad range of CHP contacts acknowledges that the
party is not likely to do well in the March 28 local
elections. Some (unconvincingly) blame a media conspiracy,
according to which ruling AK Party (AKP) controls the various
media cartels by forgiving their debts or through outright
blackmail, for the party's ills and are reluctant to engage
in self-criticism. Others attribute the party's expected
poor performance to (1) the sterility of its public strategy
of calling into question GOT intentions and attempting to
generate and exploit fears of an AKP-led Islamist threat to
the State; and (2) a singular lack of contact with Anatolia
in general and the man in the street everywhere.



3. (U) The most recent example of CHP's sterile AKP-bashing
was vice chairman for foreign policy and retired Ambassador
Onur Oymen's Feb. 18 parliamentary rant against the AKP
government's attempt to solve the Cyprus question. Oymen's
mephitic speech prompted center-left daily "Radikal"'s editor
Ismet Berkan to recall in his Feb. 19 column that Oymen, as
then-MFA Undersecretary, had been the one responsible for
taking Turkey to the brink of war with Greece over the
Kardak/Imia islets in 1995 by withholding vital information
from then-FonMin Baykal and PM Ciller.



4. (C) In a recent prominent example of fear-mongering, CHP
tried to make hay of a 1995 speech by Prime Ministry
Undersecretary Omer Dincer, who at that time argued that the
Republic might be better served if Islam played a prominent
role in State affairs. In a recent meeting, CHP central
committee member and Hatay M.P. Fuat Cay argued to POLOFF
that Dincer's statements are proof that AKP is trying to
undermine the "secular" Republic. In addition, Cay asserted
without evidence that violence against women who do not wear
headscarves is increasing in rural areas. He claimed that
women in Fatih and Esenler -- conservative districts in
Istanbul -- cannot wear "stylish" clothes without being the
subject of scorn. "Fatih and Esenler are like Pakistan and
Saudi Arabia," he exclaimed. Cay admitted, however, that he
had not been to either district recently.



5. (C) Other M.P.s, however, are critical of CHP's general
approach. Istanbul M.P. Damla Gurel, who also serves on the
party central committee, told POLOFF recently that she is
disappointed with the party's focus on the AKP as an
"Islamist threat" when there are more pressing issues for
Turks like jobs, food, and social justice. She claimed to
have made a similar argument to Baykal in a Jan. central
committee meeting. However, the CHP leader dismissed her
arguments, she said, by asserting that "protecting the
secularist state is a virtue." Recent public opinion data
bear out Gurel's sentiment. According to a January poll by
the firm Pollmark, only 22 percent believe that CHP's
criticism of Dincer was fair; some 66 percent do not/not
believe AKP is trying to establish "a state based on sharia".



6. (C) In the past week CHP'ers Necdet Budak (Edirne),Mehmet
Nessar (Denizli),and Esat Canan (a Kurdish tribal leader
from Hakkari) have also acknowledged to us various aspects of
CHP's structural and policy weaknesses, from Baykal's
authoritarianism and the emptiness of CHP's parliamentary
opposition to the party's lack of contact with ordinary
voters.



7. (C) Offering a further view of CHP's shortcomings, Agri
M.P. Cemal Kaya (a prominent Kurd),who broke with the party
following CHP's failure to support the GOT repentance bill
for PKK terrorists last summer and later joined AKP, affirmed
to POLOFF Feb. 9 that CHP has become the protector of a State
that is out of touch with Turkish realities. Kaya was
dismissive of CHP's reliance on the educated chattering class
as its voter base, saying "Anatolia is growing up, becoming
more modern, expecting more from the State, but CHP is not
changing with the rest of Turkey."


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Party Dysfunction -- Still
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8. (C) Internal party troubles are compounding CHP's policy
missteps. Gurel noted, for example, that the party does not
have a clear set of criteria for selecting candidates for
local elections. All decision making is concentrated in the
hands of Baykal and a couple of close advisors. Budak
similarly confided to us that he would never have been chosen
as a candidate if the selection process for the 2002 general
elections had been as tightly controlled by Baykal as it is
now. Asked if her status as central committee member
afforded her access to Baykal's inner circle, Gurel laughed,
saying "My position brings additional expectations from
voters but no new authority to do anything." Noting that
none of the committee members or party vice chairmen has a
job description or portfolio, Gurel added that "if I could
copy AKP's organization and paste it onto CHP, I'd do it."



9. (C) Former State Minister and CHP M.P. Kemal Dervis echoed
Gurel in a recent meeting with poloff, acknowledging that AKP
had far superior local party offices. Dervis, who has made
few public statements since becoming a party vice chairman
last fall, disclosed that he is staying out of party decision
making on local elections. "I wouldn't have much influence
on picking candidates anyway," he said. A clearly frustrated
Dervis said that many CHP members truly believe the party
will do well March 28, claiming that even if 50 percent
support AKP, the remaining 50 percent is likely to support
CHP, since the party is the only viable opposition.
Dismissing this as false logic, Dervis said he believes Turks
will prefer not to vote than to cast their lot with CHP.


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Down in the Polls -- Still
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10. (C) CHP's troubles are apparent in recent polling data.
For months CHP has been polling well below the 19 percent the
party received in the Nov. 2002 national elections.
According to Pollmark, whose methodology appears sound to us,
CHP has consistently received 12-15 percent support from
those Turks who are asked "If there were Parliamentary
elections today, to whom would you give your vote?" In
contrast, support for ruling AKP in hypothetical national
elections has climbed to between 54-57 percent over the same
period, according to Pollmark.



11. (C) The Pollmark surveys also indicate that Turks are
dissatisfied with CHP: in the January poll, for example, 66
percent of respondents said CHP has performed poorly. In
addition, party leader Deniz Baykal ranks well below AKP
chairman/P.M. Erdogan for the most liked politician in
Turkey. Erdogan received 26.6 percent of the vote, while
Baykal received only 4 percent, ranking him below his
arch-rival on the left Bulent Ecevit (6.5 percent).



12. (C) Pollmark director Ozer Sencar asserted to POLOFF
recently that CHP is in danger of losing almost all of the
election races in Turkey's big cities, including in Izmir, a
bastion of the political left. Sencar asserted that AKP had
pulled ahead of CHP in Izmir (23 percent to 21 percent),even
though the CHP candidate, incumbent mayor Ahmet Piristina, is
respected, suggesting that CHP's inadequate performance at
the national level is spilling over into local politics.
Sencar also noted that according to his own analysis of the
survey data, Alevis (heterodox Muslims) are no longer blindly
supporting CHP but are dividing their votes among all
parties, including AKP. We had heard the same analysis from
other contacts prior to the Nov. 2002 elections.


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Note on Polling in Turkey
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13. (C) Sencar related to POLOFF that security forces in the
Southeast routinely incarcerate his firm's pollsters, despite
the lifting of emergency rule and the slow spread of reform
in the region. Security forces -- police and jandarma -- and
the judiciary argue that the pollsters have to register with
the State before conducting surveys, something the Pollmark
employees are not legally bound to do. Sencar said he has
had to call the Interior Ministry, local Governors' offices,
and even AKP headquarters to get his employees released. He
also noted that some questions -- particularly about the
military and Kurdish DEHAP -- still make Turkish citizens
uncomfortable, particularly in the Southeast, leading to
false answers and thus distorted data on attitudes toward
either issue.
EDELMAN