TURKEY CONSIDERING STEPPING (BACK) UP ITS PSI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 007210

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2029
TAGS: PARM PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY CONSIDERING STEPPING (BACK) UP ITS PSI
PARTICIPATION; MAY TAKE PSI INTO BLACK SEA

REF: A. ANKARA 6261

B. ANKARA 5380

C. ANKARA 5015

D. STATE 188228 (ALL NOTAL)

Classified By: Acting DCM Gerri H. O'Brien for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is an action request. See para 4.


2. (C) Summary: Turkey is preparing to step its
participation up in the Proliferation Security Initiative --
participating in events in 2005 in Portugal and Spain,
sending experts from Ankara to operational expert meetings
even outside of Turkey's immediate region, and considering
hosting a PSI exercise in 2006, perhaps in the Black Sea.
MFA requests the time and location of the next operational
experts meeting and for information on Black Sea littoral
states' positions regarding PSI. While Ankara appears
prepared to increase its participation in PSI even without
formal membership in the Core Group, we are told that a
meeting of the core group that excludes Turkey would derail
Turkey's participation in PSI. End Summary.


3. (C) The new MFA Deputy Director General for Disarmament
and Arms Control, Bulent Meric, informed PolMilCouns and
PolMilOff December 29 that the GOT was preparing to step up
its participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative
(PSI). Although Turkey did not participate in the Sydney
operational experts group meeting, Meric said the GOT was
going to participate in future meetings with officials from
Ankara. He asked when and where the next PSI experts group
meeting would be held.


4. (C) Meric confirmed that Turkey intends to participate in
PSI exercises hosted by Portugal and Spain in 2005. He added
that the GOT was considering whether to host a PSI exercise
in 2006, and so far the indications from other agencies were
positive. PolMilCouns noted that one place where Turkey
could make a unique contribution to PSI might be in the Black
Sea region were Turkey already was running Operation Black
Sea Harmony (a counter-trafficking operation akin to (and
sharing data with) NATO's Operation Active Endeavor in the
Mediterranean) which might provide Turkey with relevant
experience on which to base an exercise. Meric said he had
also been thinking about raising PSI at the February meeting
of BLACKSEAFOR political experts. (Note: BLACKSEAFOR was a
Turkish initiate in 2001 to build cooperation among Black Sea
littoral states' navies. Beginning as annual exercises,
BLACKSEAFOR has developed a political dialogue at the vice
ministerial level and a rotating command structure. In June
2004, participants agreed to expand the mandate to include
naval cooperation to counter terrorism and WMD proliferation.
End note.) His hope would be to win agreement for a PSI
exercise centered on BLACKSEAFOR, although as a PSI exercise
it would be open to all PSI participants. He asked whether
we had information on littoral states' position on PSI -- he
was aware that Ukraine and Russia had joined PSI, but was
less clear about Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia.


5. (C) The one potential problem to this increased
participation would be a meeting of the Core Group that did
not include Turkey, Meric stated. That would be a huge
problem, he said.


6. (C) Comment: Meric's warning that a Core Group meeting
without Turkey would undermine this newfound resolve to
actively participate in PSI is serious. The slight perceived
from Turkey's exclusion from the Core Group led to the
self-imposed limit on Ankara's participation to events in
Turkey's own region only. We have been encouraging Meric
(who was previously the MFA Disarmament Department Head) and
officers at the Turkish General Staff (TGS) to reconsider
this limitation. Our arguments that the operational experts
gatherings are the real engine driving the initiative and
that we had no plan to convene the core group in the
foreseeable future appear to have resonated more with Meric
than his predecessor, Haluk Ilicak. Ilicak sold PSI to a
reluctant interagency process in Ankara by promising that if
Turkey participated vigorously in the initiative, it would be
recognized with a seat at the table of the initiative's
policy making body. With that not in the cards, Meric
appears to have sold greater participation on the basis that,
with no core group meetings expected, the experts group is
where real decisions are made. A core group meeting without
Turkey would undermine this argument. End comment.


7. (C) Action request: Presuming we still foresee no need to
reconvene the core group anytime soon, we should encourage
Meric's efforts to re-energize Turkey's participation in PSI.
To that end, we request Washington provide answers to
Meric's questions: When and where will the next operational
experts group meeting occur; and, whether Romania, Bulgaria
and Georgia have subscribed to the founding principles of PSI.
EDELMAN