GOT: EU REPORT PAVES WAY FOR TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 005781

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU
SUBJECT: GOT: EU REPORT PAVES WAY FOR TALKS

REF: A. ANKARA 261


B. ANKARA 5671

C. ANKARA 5141

Classified By: Classified by Acting DCM James Moore; reasons 1.4 b and
d.


1. (C) Summary: GOT and EU contacts say they believe the
October 6 EU Progress Report on Turkey paves the way for the
opening of accession talks in 2005. At the same time, GOT
officials maintain that elements of the report, including a
statement that the outcome of the talks cannot be guaranteed,
are unfair because they have not been applied to other
candidates. They say they will try to persuade EU leaders to
avoid using similar language at the EU Summit in December.
PM Erdogan, FM Gul, and other top GOT leaders have followed
USG advice to focus on the positive aspects of the report in
public. Some Turkish pundits and opposition party leaders
have been more critical of the report. GOT and EU officials
say they will work to adopt several new reforms before
December. The GOT leadership will have the difficult task of
both pleasing the EU and assuring domestic EU skeptics in the
run-up to the Summit. The U.S. role will be to help ensure
the GOT remains focused on the big picture, i.e. opening
talks in 2005. End Summary.

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Report Paves Way for Talks...
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2. (C) Asligul Ugdul, director of political affairs at the
GOT's Secretariat General for EU Affairs, told us she
believes the report, on the whole, paves the way for Turkey
to begin accession negotiations in 2005, provided the GOT
continues to follow through on reforms. Ugdul said she
accepts many of the caveats contained in the report. For
example, the section recommending the EU suspend negotiations
in case of a "serious and persistent breach" of democratic
principles mirrors language used for Croatia. And the
statement that the EU will need to monitor the implementation
of the reform legislation over time is fair, given the GOT's
pledge to follow through on the new laws. Ugdul said she
believes these clauses reflect the "lessons learned" by the
EU following earlier expansions. She said she was encouraged
by Swedish FM Frievalds' comments during her recent visit.
Frievalds, Ugdul said, advised GOT interlocutors not to dwell
on the caveats, which in the end will prove meaningless.
Every country to date that has begun accession talks has
progressed toward full membership. Sema Kilicer, political
officer at the EU Representation to Turkey, agreed, and said
she has advised her GOT contacts to focus on the positive.
Kilicer said the caveats in the report reflect the heated
debate among EU commissioners, a minority of whom oppose
Turkey's candidacy. She said the debates, and related
changes to the text, continued up to the last minute.

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...But GOT Has Concerns
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3. (U) However, Ugdul said the GOT is concerned about several
elements of the report:

-- The Commission states that accession talks will be "an
open-ended process whose outcome cannot be guaranteed
beforehand" (Note: The GOT tried to have this sentence
removed during drafting. End Note);

-- The Commission proposes the establishment of a screening
process that would precede the opening and closure of each
chapter of the accession talks. Ugdul said the EU and GOT
have already held eight working groups on the chapters of the
EU acquis; any further discussions on the chapters should
take place simultaneously with the start of accession talks;
and

-- The Commission indicates that the EU might place permanent
restrictions on the free movement of Turkish workers.


4. (U) Ugdul averred that the EU would be subjecting Turkey
to different standards than those applied to other candidates
if it were to implement these elements of the report. She
said the GOT will lobby EU leaders to ensure they do not
include similar language in the EU Council report in December
(Note: See septel for similar comments by FM Gul to UK FS
Straw. End Note).

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GOT Leaders Focus on Positive
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5. (C) Ugdul and Kilicer both said they were pleased that PM
Erdogan, FM Gul, and other top GOT leaders have focused their
public statements on the positive elements of the report, in
contrast to their initial, unconstructive criticism of the
EU's December 2002 decision to postpone a judgment on
Turkey's candidacy until 2004.

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Opposition, Some Pundits Grow Critical
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6. (U) Some other voices, however, have become more
circumspect, or even hostile, after reading the report in
detail. Onur Oymen, an MP from the opposition Republican
People's Party (CHP),told us the report is "below our
expectations." Oymen said he is concerned that the report
does not emphasize the importance of Turkey's secular State.
He maintained that PM Erdogan and others in the ruling AK
Party could interpret the EU's language on religious freedom
as opposition to traditional Turkish secularism. He is also
concerned that the EU may call for extensive further reforms
on Kurdish issues, such as the inclusion of Kurdish language
education in public schools. President Sezer said he
expected the EU Council in December to remove "negative
elements" of the report, and emphasized the need to protect
national interests during negotiations. Devlet Bahceli,
chairman of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP),said during
an October 7 press conference that the EU's intention is to
"justify terrorism" and "insult the Turkish State." Ahmet
Tasgetiren, writing in the October 8 edition of the Islamist
daily "Yeni Safak," opined that the Commission is laying the
groundwork for a "Plan B" alternative to full EU membership,
and argued that Turkey should also develop a Plan B. Mehmet
Ocaktan, also of Yeni Safak, accused the Commission of
"discrimination" for referring to Kurds as minorities. Orhan
Birgit, writing in the nationalist daily "Cumhuriyet," made
similar remarks, arguing that the Commission's references to
both Kurds and Alevis as minorities reflects its "ignorance"
(Note: In Turkey, the term "minority" has a legal meaning
tied to the 1923 Lausanne Treaty. The Turkish State
interprets the Treaty as conferring minority status
exclusively to three non-Muslim religious groups: Greek
Orthodox Christians, ARMENIAn Orthodox Christians, and Jews.
End Note).

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Next Steps for GOT, EU
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7. (C) Ugdul and Kilicer told us the GOT and EU Commission
will work on further reforms before December to bolster
Turkey's position at the EU Summit. They said they will
focus on the following priorities:

-- Adoption of a new Criminal Procedure Code (reftel A),
which determines how the judiciary functions in criminal
matters. Parliament is expected to adopt the new Code by the
end of the month;

-- Adoption of a new Execution of Punishments Law (reftel A),
also on the legislative agenda for this month;

-- Establishment of a corps of Judicial Police, to improve
oversight of police investigations;

-- Adoption of a new Associations Law. President Sezer
vetoed the law in August; Parliament is expected to override
the veto this month;

-- Removal of language from the "reasoning" of the new Penal
Code indicating that comments in favor of withdrawing troops
from Cyprus, or supporting allegations that the Ottoman
Empire committed a "genocide" against ARMENIAns, could
constitute a crime (reftel B). The reasoning is an
attachment to the law designed as a guide for judges and
prosecutors. Ugdul said she was unaware of the controversial
language until it was covered in the Greek Cypriot and
ARMENIAn American press. She said she will raise the issue
in the next meeting of the Reform Monitoring Group, headed by
FM Gul, and recommend that the language be removed; and

-- Adoption of a new Foundations Law. Contacts say the new
draft law is under Cabinet review. We have not seen the
text, but its author claims it would enhance the ability of
non-Muslim foundations to acquire legal ownership of
properties (reftel C).

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Comment
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8. (C) Overall, Turkish officials have publicly and privately
followed Secretary Powell's advice: Don't whine, don't gloat,
be positive in public, point out in private the few things
you want changed. Nevertheless, we can expect a certain
amount of complaining about EU conditions and caveats; the
GOT has to manage domestic public opinion. The GOT faces a
tough challenge over the next three months as it tries to
assure elements of the Turkish public skeptical about EU
intentions, while at the same time convincing the EU Turkey
will be a good candidate. The USG role will be to help
ensure that the Turks keep their eyes on the prize. We have
told our GOT interlocutors that the EU's insistence on
implementation should not present a stumbling block -- after
all, GOT leaders have said all along they intend to implement
the reforms for the good of Turkey.




EDELMAN