CYPRUS: MILITARY EXERCISES MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 004265 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2029 TAGS: MOPS PREL CY TU SUBJECT: CYPRUS: MILITARY EXERCISES MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS FALL Classified By: Political Military Counselor Timothy A. Betts. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) TGS/J5 Greece/Cyprus director RADM Mucahit Sislioglu warned polmilcouns July 28 not to assume Turkey would cancel this fall's exercises on Cyprus. "The situation is different this year," he said. Whereas last year Turkey was optimistic about achieving a settlement on the island and wanted to do nothing to disturb that process, this year the Greek Cypriots had rejected the settlement and now were working to impede EU measures to help the Turkish Cypriots. This could lead to a "different outcome" on exercises this year. Polmilcouns noted that the exercises were scheduled on the eve of the decision on Turkey's EU accession, a factor arguing in favor of cancellation of the exercises. He also reminded Sislioglu that the US remained committed to the Annan plan, easing the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots and the reduction of military tensions on the island, including the recent practice of canceling the large-scale exercises both sides plan for the island each year. ¶2. (C) Comment: Turkey, including the Turkish military, is not happy about the GOC's recent attempts to block EU measures to help the Turkish Cypriots. Developments over the next few months will determine whether the Turks' pique will result in counterproductive steps, like resuming their annual fall exercise on the island. Presumably, if the Turks conduct their exercise, the Greeks will feel compelled to conduct theirs. This year, as in the past, we will need to press for restraint. End Comment. DEUTSCH