TURKISH MFA CLAIMS ARMENIA WILLING TO DISCUSS NK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 003764 SIPDIS NSC FOR BRYZA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2014 TAGS: AJ AM PBTS TU SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA CLAIMS ARMENIA WILLING TO DISCUSS NK AND OCCUPIED TERRITORIES WHILE DEFERRING FINAL STATUS DETERMINATION REF: BAKU 1179 (EXDIS) (U) Classified by CDA Robert Deutsch, E.O. 12958, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Turkish MFA Caucasus Department Head Murat Adali portrays the June 28 meeting during the Istanbul NATO Summit between Turkish FM Gul and Armenian FM Oskanian, and a follow-on trilateral meeting including Azerbaijani FM Mammadyarov, as steps forward in resolving the Nagorno Karabakh (NK) dispute and improving Turkish/Armenian relations. Adali claims Armenian FM Oskanian is willing to negotiate on NK and occupied territories while agreeing on a process, but delaying a decision, on NK's final status. Adali's upbeat assessment should be treated with caution. End Summary. MFA: Oskanian Will Agree on Final Status Process and Delayed Decision ¶2. (C) Adali, who was present at both meetings, claims that Oskanian agreed in principle to negotiate on NK and the occupied territories while delaying final status determination. Adali averred that Oskanian indicated this willingness in his bilateral meeting with Turkish FM Gul and repeated it the trilateral meeting. Instead of insisting on a final status determination as part of negotiations on NK and the occupied territories, Adali said Oskanian is willing to agree to a process for final status determination, while delaying the actual decision. ¶3. (C) Adali concedes that President Kocharian takes a harder line than Oskanian on NK negotiations and that Kocharian may reject deferral of final status determination. According to Adali, the GOT is looking for ways to strengthen Oskanian's hand in what Adali depicts as an internal debate in the GOAM over how to settle NK. Adali offered no persuasive explanation of why or how Oskanian would be able to prevail over the Kocharian on this point. ¶4. (C) Adali said Oskanian pressed Gul to re-open the rail line running through Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan, even offering to allow trains to pass through Armenia without charging transit fees. ¶5. (C) Adali said that in both meetings Oskanian called for Turkey to play a greater role in resolving NK. According to Adali, working-level GOT and GOAM diplomats will meet before the end of July to follow up on the Istanbul meetings and elaborate an NK "road map." Adali said the Armenians prefer to meet outside Armenia due to concerns about electronic eavesdropping, presumably by the Russians. Adali predicted another FM-level trilateral meeting in New York on the margins of UNGA. ¶6. (C) Comment: Adali's upbeat assessment of the Istanbul talks should be treated with caution. FM Mammadyarov did not mention this supposed new Armenian flexibility on a key point in his readout to Ambassador Harnish (reftel). Over the past months, the Turkish MFA has consistently exaggerated the significance of ongoing Turkish-Armenian diplomatic contacts. End Comment. DEUTSCH