BREAKTHROUGHS BETWEEN TURKEY AND ARMENIA APPEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000317

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2014
TAGS: AJ ARMENIA'>AM PREL TU
SUBJECT: BREAKTHROUGHS BETWEEN TURKEY AND ARMENIA APPEAR
UNLIKELY

REF: 2003 ANKARA 6398


(U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch, E. O. 12958, reasons
1.5 (b) and (d),



1. (C) Summary: In a January 14 meeting, Turkish MFA
Caucasus Department Head Murat Adali reaffirmed that Turkey
linked opening the ARMENIAn border and full diplomatic
relations to ARMENIAn concessions in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK)
(reftel). Although MFA officials will travel to Yerevan in
February, they are not taking any significant new proposals
with them, nor do any appear imminent. Adali was downbeat on
the prospect of opening the border to Turkish and ARMENIAn
diplomats, citing what he claims are "practical" problems.
End Summary.


Policy Changes Still Linked to Nagorno-Karabakh



2. (C) Adali began by declaring that ARMENIA "must take the
first step" in order for the border to be opened and
relations to be normalized. According to Adali, for any
breakthrough, ARMENIA will first have to make concessions on
NK and occupied territories, and explicitly recognize the
Turkish-ARMENIAn border. However, in the course of almost
two hours of discussion, Adali discussed NK and the
territories in detail and did not mention the border again,
as if he considers the border issue a throwaway.



3. (C) Adali noted that ARMENIAn President Kocharian has
refused to withdraw from occupied territories, in part
because Kocharian said ARMENIA will need 5000 additional
troops to guard the new border. However, Adali thinks time
is on Turkey's side for concessions on NK and the
territories. He claims that Russians are withdrawing support
for Kocharian, and that the closed border is hurting ARMENIA
economically.



4. (C) Adali characterized the linkage as a matter of
"ethics." Asked what ethical principle he was talking about,
he replied "we (Turkey and Azerbaijan) speak the same
language." He is bitter about what he perceives as the U.S.
and Western Europe favoring ARMENIA in the dispute with
Azerbaijan, at one point saying that the "international
community" really means "the Christian community."


MFA Officials Travel to Yerevan in February



5. (C) Adali said he and DDG Tezgor are going to Yerevan for
talks in early or mid February. They are carrying a proposal
for ARMENIAn withdrawals from five occupied rayons to which
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev "gave the green light" during FM
Gul's January 9-10 visit to Azerbaijan. (Adali thinks of
this as a "new" idea.)



6. (C) Adali said the Turkish/ARMENIAn "roadmap" for better
relations was 80% complete, with exception of "regional
aspects" (i.e., NK -- the main item). He added, without
elaborating, that Turkey and ARMENIA will unveil some
economic confidence building measures in the near future.


"Practical Problems" in Opening Border to Diplomats



7. (C) Asked whether Turkey will open the border to Turkish
and ARMENIAn diplomatic passport holders soon, Adali asked
rhetorically, "what is soon"? Adali said such a measure is
"not a political problem" but is a "practical" problem. He
said that setting up and staffing a border crossing that will
only be used infrequently would be a waste of resources,
especially in winter. Adali also questioned the practical
necessity of the measure when Turkish and ARMENIAn diplomats
can fly from Yerevan to Istanbul on existing charter flights.


Genocide Resolution "Is Your Problem"



8. (C) Adali asserted the possibility of a genocide
resolution in the U.S. Congress "is your problem." He
asserted without elaborating that such a resolution will have
no effect on Turkey and predicted it would have only
short-term effects on U.S.-Turkey relations (Caucasus DDG
Tezgor made the same assertion in October).


Turkey-ARMENIA Trade



9. (C) Adali estimated current Turkey/ARMENIA trade at $100
million annually, which he said makes Turkey ARMENIA's second
largest trading partner. Much of the trade consists of
durable consumer goods exported from Turkey to ARMENIA.
Adali characterized the trade as more important for ARMENIA
than Turkey, estimating that trade would "only" reach $200
million even if the border is opened.



10. (C) Comment: Adali's narrow vision, while not
characteristic of all MFA officials, is an example of what
Turkey must overcome in order to improve relations with
ARMENIA. While his minimizing the impact of an ARMENIAn
genocide resolution is not credible, it reflects a hidebound
bureaucratic mentality that is all too common, as does his
failure to grasp the importance of opening the border to
diplomats. End Comment.
EDELMAN