TURKISH POLITICS: OPPOSITION WITHIN THE OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003158 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV TU SUBJECT: TURKISH POLITICS: OPPOSITION WITHIN THE OPPOSITION GOING NOWHERE FAST REF: A. ANKARA 1905 ¶B. ANKARA 2237 (U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. Reason: 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Disgruntled deputies from main parliamentary opposition CHP and other CHP dissidents have are calling for a convention to elect a new leader in place of current CHP boss Deniz Baykal. Procedural hurdles and the absence of a clear alternative to Baykal, however, are hobbling any serious challenge. Moreover, some M.P.s have already repented and returned to the CHP fold, as the opposition to Baykal increasingly appears rudderless. At least one observer believes the splits in the party will remain fixed and could possibly lead to a formal break if Baykal retains his iron grip on the party organs. End Summary. -------------- Deck Stacked Against Opposition -------------- ¶2. (C) Two camps have emerged in opposition CHP to challenge chairman Baykal: 1) a group of approximately 30 CHP M.P.s, led for now by Hakki Akalin; and 2) party dissidents, whom Baykal has isolated over the years or who have sensed that now may be the opportune moment to contest Baykal's leadership. This group includes former CHP Secretary General Ertugrul Gunay, former Gaziantep mayor Celal Dogan, and Sisli (Istanbul) mayor Mustafa Sarigul (reftels). The two groups have agreed to cooperate in their effort to convene an extraordinary party convention. Baykal made this task difficult at last year's regular convention, where he forced through a by-law requiring that signatures of 651 party delegates (most of whom owe their positions to Baykal) be gathered in a period of 14 days in order for an extraordinary convention to be held. ¶3. (C) Former CHP State Minister Erol Cevikce, who has demonstrated an uncanny understanding of the opaque world of CHP machinations, told us early June that gathering enough signatures in 14 days is a nearly impossible undertaking, even given the agitation among the party grassroots and local organizations. Indeed, the opposition began gathering signatures June 7 and as of June 8 had collected only 17. Moreover, the new by-laws state that an opposition group cannot call for an extraordinary convention in order to elect a new chairman. According to Cevikce -- who, after years of close friendship with Baykal, is now a fierce critic in his columns on NTV's website and in the daily "Vatan" -- the opposition must first call for a convention to change the by-laws and then must call for another to elect a new leader. Cevikce said that the chances of the opposition pulling off both are extremely low. -------------- Divided We Stand -------------- ¶4. (C) The drive for an extraordinary convention is, for the moment, keeping the disparate faces of the opposition together. When the effort fails, as our contacts suggest will happen, it will be increasingly difficult to maintain unity. The lack of either a clear leader or a shadow party administration is already driving a wedge into the opposition's ranks: -- CHP M.P. Muharrem Ince, who has both attended and taught at Imam Hatip high schools, has withdrawn his support to the opposition, although he has been one of the most outspoken critics of Baykal. Speaking to poloff at a June 2 reception, Ince explained that he could not back a movement that did not offer a real alternative. Simply getting rid of Baykal is not the answer, Ince said, adding that without a clear alternative to the party leadership, "We are a microcosm of the party in general: We say no but offer no solutions." -- M.P. Kemal Kilicdaroglu -- reportedly an Alevi (heterodox Muslim) and former member of the board at Is Bank, which has been a significant source of CHP funds ever since Ataturk willed shares of the bank to the party -- told poloff June 4 that he no longer supports the opposition efforts. A newcomer to politics, Kilicdaroglu echoed Ince, asserting that the group had no leader and no new ideas for what would happen in any post-Baykal CHP. ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, Sarigul, who is being pumped up by a group of rigid Kemalists (reftels),is seen as fundamentally flawed, according to a wide range of contacts on the left. "Sabah" columnist and self-styled social democratic intellectual Soli Ozel averred to us that Sarigul is one of the most corrupt politicians in Turkey, adding that "if CHP chooses Sarigul, the party is finished." In addition, Cevikce called Sarigul a political novice, a "child" with little weight in the party organization. CHP M.P.s with whom we have recently spoken universally dismissed Sarigul's chances. -------------- Baykal Waiting it Out -------------- ¶6. (C) As the opposition thrashes about, Baykal is projecting an image of arrogant calm -- an image made stronger after several prominent opposition figures, including Ince and Kilicdaroglu, withdrew their signatures from a declaration calling for Baykal's resignation. CHP M.P.s close to Baykal are content to ride out the storm. For example, Oya Arasli, who sits on Parliament's Constitutional Committee, dismissed the opposition recently to us, saying that "divisiveness is a natural part of politics on the left." Arasli claimed that nothing will come of the movement. Gaye Erbatur, who once espoused her desire to see former Minister for the Economy Kemal Dervis as party leader but who now unequivocally supports Baykal, echoed Arasli in a meeting with us June 4. She asserted that the din is a reflection of CHP's intraparty democracy. In her typically convoluted Turkish, Erbatur said, "it would not be right not to let our colleagues to raise objections." Both M.P.s claimed they are so busy that they have little time to even think about squabbling in the party. -------------- What's Next? -------------- ¶7. (C) As it stands, despite all of the clamor, Baykal appears safe. As "Milliyet" columnist and prominent leftist Derya Sazak wrote in his June 7 column, the slogans being cast about in CHP are slowly turning from "let's bring down Baykal" to "Baykal is still standing even after all of this." If Baykal stays, the 30 opposition M.P.s will be in a tough spot. Cevikce, for one, believes the party is slowly dividing from within and that these divisions will ultimately be permanent. He speculated that the 30 deputies may be looking for a new home if Baykal remains in power and asserted that former Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's DSP could be attractive. However, Cevikce called Ecevit's choice of successor, long-time leftist politician Zeki Sezer, uninspiring. "If they don't go to DSP, they may repent, return to Baykal, and the whole process may begin again." EDELMAN