TURKISH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: AKP POISED FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001835

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: AKP POISED FOR
VICTORY IN ANATOLIA'S HEARTLAND


(U) Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons: E.O.
12958 1.5 (b,d).



1. Summary: Hampered by unorganized, uninspiring candidates,
AKP's chances in the Anatolian provinces of Konya, Aksaray,
and Sivas are based more on PM Erdogan's national popularity
than any local candidate or particular platform. Except in
rare races where opposition is organized and effective, AKP
is likely to prevail despite a pronounced inability to rally
around anything but their party leader. End summary.



2. (C) Poloff traveled to Konya, Aksaray, and Sivas provinces
to discuss with a variety of political and professional
groups Anatolian perspectives on the March 28 municipal
elections. AKP's "great wind of change" is sweeping up many
voters despite consistent themes of uninspiring candidates,
overconfidence in Erdogan,s brand name, and disconnects with
local constituencies. The absence of women on AKP candidate
lists does not appear to be hampering the party's course.
Nor is AKP's conglomerate condition a barrier to success: as
Sivas Bar Association VP Mustafa Coskun noted, "AKP is like a
nice restaurant where people gather, sit at separate tables,
and have no idea about the topics of conversations going on
around them."


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KONYA: ERDOGAN AND ALLAH AGREE, AKP SHOULD WIN
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3. (C) Even without a coherent party identity, AKP threatens
a local election landslide in Konya, one of the cradles of
Turkey's religious conservatives, as voters embrace PM
Erdogan's "wind of change" theme. "Political tension isn't
very high in Konya because there's no serious opposition,"
notes Tahir Akyurek, a local attorney and AKP's candidate for
mayor. "AKP has filled the center of Turkish national and
local politics." This widely held perception, echoed by
demoralized left-of-center CHP, center-right ANAP, and
rightist-nationalist MHP party officials in Konya, has
spurred confident AKP candidates to forgo campaign platforms
or strategies. "Image is the most important issue in these
elections," AKP Chairman Ali Surucu proclaimed. "We're going
to win because we're the party of Erdogan."



4. (C) Only Konya's 3rd term SP (Islamist leader Erbakan's
Saadet Party) Mayor Mustafa Ozkafa is mounting serious
opposition. Mirroring MHP and CHP candidates, Ozkafa has
removed any hint of his party affiliation from his campaign
rhetoric, billboards and banners. Ozkaya is struggling to
personalize the race against AKP's Akyurek, hoping to take
Erdogan's invisible hand out of the election. However,
according to the Chairmen of Konya's Chamber of Commerce and
Small Businessmen's Association, Ozkafa's administration has,
at best, erected hurdles to development for the business
community. Seizing on business sentiment, many unemployed
voters blame Ozkaya for the area's economic woes. Backward
looking, Ozkaya is campaigning on his "legacy of public
works," which neither voters nor businessmen seem convinced
is reason to reelect him. As a result, either Allah or
Erdogan (used interchangeably by AKP officials in this
historically religious-conservative province),is poised to
deliver AKP a resounding victory.


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AKSARAY: AKP CANDIDATE OUT OF TOUCH, POSSIBLY OUT OF LUCK
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5. (C) As in Konya, unemployment, city infrastructure
development, and candidates' integrity are repeated campaign
slogans in the agricultural province of Aksaray, but for AKP,
don't extend much beyond populist rhetoric. Contacts in
Aksaray echoed largely what we heard in Konya -- AKP's
national prominence will likely translate to local election
victories. However, unique local factors, including a strong
MHP metropolitan mayor, weigh against an AKP landslide.
AKP's candidate - Nevzat Palta - moved to Aksaray from his
permanent residence in Ankara just 60 days before the
election. State-operated Anatolia News Agency's Bureau Chief
Nevzat Altinok whispered that AKP party officials only bowed
to Nevzat's candidacy after "out-of-touch" AKP
parliamentarians threatened to walk out on the party.



6. (C) Sharing a common, colorless theme with Konya's AKP
candidate for mayor, Palta has been accused of pirating
campaign strategies, promises, and projects from his popular
incumbent opponent. Indeed, Mayor Osman Ertugrul has fired
back with public statements criticizing Palta for being out
of touch with Aksaray: "He's promising voters projects that
I've already implemented." Despite these charges, Palta's
confidence is brazen: "I would not be exaggerating if I told
you my main opposition is myself," he observes, "I don't
regard the mayor as a threat." Both Palta and AKP are
counting on the 49% of the electorate who voted for AKP in
national elections to come back to the polls. On the other
hand, Ertugrul, whose well oiled press machine is running in
high gear, has done his best to highlight an impressive
legacy of development that has placed businesses and voters
squarely in his corner.


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SIVAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
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7. (C) Sivas Deputy Governor Celil Ozbey summed the race in
Sivas: "If you ask the candidates, each will tell you he'll
win by 60%; if you ask someone on the street, he'll tell you
all three are tied." As a matter of Anatolian pride, key
officials from AKP, Islamist-nationalist BBP, and Islamist SP
place special emphasis on capturing local elections in Sivas.
AKP is pressing because Deputy PM Abdullatif Sener, who is
actively campaigning across the province, is from Sivas. BBP
National Chairman Muhsin Yazicioglu and his long-time
subordinate Nevzat Yanmaz are personally invested because
both are from Sivas. Mayor Osman Secilmis has controlled
Sivas for the last 8 years for SP. CHP led Sivas from 1918
to 1984.



8. (C) Largely seen as a friend of Sivas, significant
minority (Alevi, Armenian and Bahai) constituency, SP,s
Mayor Secilmis is mounting a strong campaign against &AKP,s
wind of change.8 According to AKP Provincial Chairman
Hakkan Akkas, &Our race is not with SP, it,s against their
candidate.8 Secilmis, who lives in a predominantly Alevi
district of Sivas, is making a strong showing. Shop owners,
taxi drivers and CHP party officials agree: &He,s our
neighbor. Every time a child is born, he,s there to kiss
it; when someone dies, he,s at the funeral. People
appreciate that.8 Conspicuously, despite repeated
questioning, AKP party officials avoided discussing any
details about their party's candidate, focusing instead on
Erdogan,s national appeal.


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ACCEPTANCE OF TRADITION KEEPS AKP'S WOMEN BEHIND THE SCENES
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9. (C) "AK is a totally new vision that is still being
defined," according to AKP Konya Women's Branch Chairman
Gokcen Sahar. Unfortunately, as she reluctantly admits, the
party's men, who don't see a role for women in politics, are
drafting the vision. More readily vocal than many of his AKP
party colleagues, Konya Provincial Chairman Ali Surucu
articulated AKP's Konya approach: "Women should do what women
do best ) raise children. Mothers have to fulfill their
primary duty ) being a mother; then they can think about
politics. How can you be a good mother and work at the same
time?" Indicative of the strength of traditional patterns in
Konya, Sahar agreed, "Our women's auxiliary is focusing on
teaching women how to be good mothers. Domestic violence and
women's health issues are important -- that's why we need to
teach mother's about their family responsibilities."



10. (C) AKP women in the region continue readily to embrace
this mixture of conservative culture, conservative
interpretation of Islam, and domineering male political
attitudes. Committed to their back-seat roles as child
bearers and carers, AKP women in this region do not yet show
that they are ready to compete for political prominence.
Forty women in Sivas and another thirty women in Aksaray --
all on the board of directors of AKP Women's Auxiliaries --
fell back on cautious arguments: "We just don't have any
women who are interested in running for office."
EDELMAN