AK PARTY'S WESTERN BLACK SEA REGION ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001834

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU
SUBJECT: AK PARTY'S WESTERN BLACK SEA REGION ELECTION
OPPONENTS HOLDING THEIR OWN AND CRYING FOUL


(U) Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons 1.4 b and
d.



1. (C) Summary: Candidates running against ruling AK Party
(AKP) in the western Black Sea region appear to be holding
their own as they approach March 28 local election. At the
same time they accuse AKP of using "bribes and blackmail" to
influence voters. They assert AKP's national success is due
primarily to corruption and weak leadership among the other
parties, and predict that wary voters will begin to look for
alternatives in the aftermath of the elections. AKP
officials say the party's national influence enables it to
better serve cities and municipalities. As elsewhere in
Turkey, women are not playing a major role in the AKP
campaigns in the region. End Summary.



2. (U) Emboffs traveled March 22-23 to the western Black Sea
cities of Eregli, Zonguldak, and Mengen to discuss the March
28 local elections with candidates, party officials, and
local residents.


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Opponents Accuse AK of "Bribes and Blackmail"
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3. (C) All of our contacts, including AKP members, told us
voters in the region traditionally favor "social democratic"
parties, which in Turkey means left-of-center parties such as
CHP (Republican People's Party) and DSP (Democratic Left
Party),although voters have also put parties on the right in
power. However, they said, corruption and inept leadership
have driven voters away from those parties, and AKP's status
as the party in power holds attraction for some. Mayors in
Eregli (Motherland Party - ANAP),Zonguldak (CHP) and Mengen
(Nationalist Movement Party - MHP) all asserted AKP is taking
advantage of its position as the ruling party in Ankara to
use "bribes and blackmail" to influence voters. Eregli Mayor
Halil Posbiyik, who has won substantial popularity owing to
his common touch and ability to win the EU's "European City"
designation owing to his urban planning reforms, said AKP has
been promising Eregli residents money and academic
scholarships if they elect the AKP mayoral candidate. In
addition, party members claim an AKP mayor would feed the
poor 12 months a year, rather than just for the month of
Ramazan, as the city does now. "Lies, lies, lies," Posbiyik
said. "One day (PM) Erdogan will suffer for all these lies."



4. (C) AKP officials in Eregli, while claiming that their
mayoral and municipal assembly candidates are "honest," made
it clear they consider AKP's national influence their main
selling point. AKP Eregli Subprovincial Chairman Mustafa
Demirel summed up the party's campaign theme with one word:
"service." Asked to elaborate, he said that AKP candidates
in Eregli are telling voters the GOT will postpone the
planned privatization of the Erdemir steel plant, Eregli's
main employer. Demirel implied to us that the postponement
might be indefinite, and said AKP is selling voters on the
idea that Eregli would benefit from having the national
government, municipality, and Erdemir plant under the same
party. This theme is underscored by an AKP campaign banner
reading, "Government and Municipality, Hand in Hand." AKP is
betting that people will vote for their candidates for fear
that privatizing the high-paying plant will mean layoffs,
Demirel said.



5. (C) Posbiyik accused AKP of distributing food and clothing
to voters, and paying the unemployed to participate in party
rallies. He added that AKP has pressured the Erdemir
management to call on employees to vote for AKP. Claiming
the workers aren't fooled, he said many have secretly donated
to his campaign. In a separate meeting, Erdemir's chief
fireman confirmed to us that the workers oppose privatization
but support Posbiyik's reelection.



6. (C) CHP officials in Zonguldak also said AKP is bribing
the poor with coal, clothing, and food (note: earlier in the
year we heard in the Aegean province of Manisa that AKP
arranged deliveries of coal to poor families there as well.
End note). Zonguldak Mayor Ismail Esref and Mengen Mayor Ali
Budak told us AKP is trying to "blackmail" voters by
threatening that the national government will cut off support
for local services unless they vote AKP. Budak introduced us
to two former AKP members he recruited as municipal assembly
candidates. They both told us they objected to the
"aggressive" tactics AKP is using in the campaign.



7. (C) Nevertheless, Posbiyik, Esref, and Budak all told us
they are confident their reputations and records in office
will assure them victory on election day. AKP officials in
Zonguldak predicted victory in the mayoral race, but those in
Eregli and Mengen focused on the municipal assembly races and
avoided commenting directly on their chances of defeating the
incumbent mayors.


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After Election - New Political Landscape?
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8. (C) Several of our non-AKP contacts predicted that a
viable alternative to AKP, or at least the beginning of one,
will emerge from the fallout of the elections. Posbiyik
averred that the elections could spell the end of some of the
smaller parties, such as ANAP, and voters wary of AKP could
begin to rally behind new opposition leaders. He opined that
Turks are "lending" their votes to AKP until a better
alternative arises. But Eregli residents, like some others
across Turkey, worry that AKP is hiding an Islamist agenda
beneath a pro-EU cover. "Erbakan (former PM from the Islamist
Refah Party) swam six meters under the surface, but AK swims
25 meters under," Posbiyik said. "You can't see what they're
doing." CHP Zonguldak Provincial Chairman Ali Kocal averred
that if AKP's support increases it will be trouble for
Turkey. Success will make the ruling party arrogant, and its
emboldened leaders will begin to pursue an Islamist agenda
that will pose a threat to secularism and stir conflict, he
asserted. To avoid that, he predicted, voters will begin to
turn more toward CHP and other opposition parties.


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AK Women Take Back Seat in Region
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9. (U) As in the rest of Turkey, women occupy a minor place
on AKP candidate lists in the region. In Eregli, out of a
total of 25 candidates, AK is running three women for
municipal council, none for mayor. In Zonguldak, two of 31
AK municipal assembly candidates are women; none of the AKP
mayoral candidates is a woman. In Mengen, AKP has no women
among its 12 candidates. For CHP, by contrast, six of 25
Eregli candidates and six of 31 Zonguldak candidates are
women. In keeping with AKP's stated policy, none of the
party's women candidates in Eregli wear headscarves, but all
members of the party's local Women's Auxiliary do.



10. (C) While we scheduled separate meetings with AKP leaders
and Auxiliary members, two male party members joined our
Auxiliary meeting, often interrupting and dominating the
conversation. Kamile Saatci, Women's Auxiliary president,
claimed there are no problems concerning equality for women
in Eregli, due to the town's relative affluence. When we
asked whether there is a need for more women to become
engaged in politics, she said "it would be good" to have more
women candidates. The Auxiliary's sole mission is to raise
the women's vote for AK. Saatci described for us how
Auxiliary members go door-to-door, having tea with women in
their homes. She said the group does not discuss women's
issues, encourage women to run for office, or develop a
women's platform for candidates. In Mengen, we asked AKP
Subprovincial Chairman Sadik Erdogan why AKP is running no
women candidates. He claimed that prospective women
candidates had asked to be given "priority," but the party
refused, giving priority instead to people with professional
backgrounds, such as engineers and architects.


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Comment
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11. (C) The accusations against AKP come as no surprise,
given AKP's position as the sole ruling party. In these
local elections, we expect a number of non-AKP incumbents to
retain their seats based on individual popularity.
Nevertheless, opposition parties will not succeed in slowing
AK's momentum by relying solely on trying to fan public fears
that AKP's true intentions are malign.
EDELMAN