SOUTHEAST TURKEY SITUATION REPORT: IMPROVING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 001717 SIPDIS SENSITIVE ANKARA PASS IZMIR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON TU SY IZ SUBJECT: SOUTHEAST TURKEY SITUATION REPORT: IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE NOT SET IN A SOLID FOUNDATION REF: A. ANKARA 1646 ¶B. ANKARA 1624 ¶C. ANKARA 1423 ¶D. ADANA 022 THIS CABLE IS FROM AMCONSUL ADANA. ¶1. (SBU) From February 22-27, consulate personnel traveled the eastern part of the consular district, including the cities of Diyarbakir, Batman, Mardin, Nusaybin and Sanliurfa. The primary issues that emerged in meetings with academicians, medical and legal professionals, politicians, local administrators, civil right activists and business leaders were civil rights, local elections, security and the economy. While there are positive trends in all of these areas, the recent clashes over the border in Syria between Kurds and Arabs (REF A) illustrate how easily external events might affect a fragile stability. As Newroz and the local elections approach, the combination of emotions and large seasonal gatherings could be influenced by a negative turn of events in Northern Iraq. HUMAN RIGHTS NEW AMENDMENTS CREATE DIFFICULTIES FOR WORSHIPPERS ¶2. (SBU) In Diyarbakir, a nondenominational Protestant congregation of about 50-60 worshippers is experiencing difficulty since new amendments on religious buildings were passed in December 2003. The amendments, which allow the word &mosque8 to be replaced by &place of worship,8 appear at first glance, to be an improvement. The congregation up until December 2003 was in compliance with all procedures. However, the new amendment requires an application filed with local administration, approval by the municipality and final certification by the governor,s office for a need for the prospective place of worship. ¶3. (SBU) The congregation diligently pursued meeting the new requirements but failed to receive the required approvals. Subsequently, the Security Directorate brought charges against Pastor Ahmet Guvener for opening an unauthorized church and disobeying official orders. On March 18, consulate personnel confirmed that there will be a court hearing on May 12. KURDISH LANGUAGE SCHOOLS OPEN*FINALLY ¶4. (SBU) After waiting periods of 18 months to two years, several Kurdish schools in southeast Turkey are finally opening their doors. Consulate personnel visited the new schools in Batman and Urfa. The consulate personnel who visited the facilities agreed that these were probably among the most up-to-building code facilities they had ever visited. ¶5. (SBU) The Turkish Education Ministry (YOK) placed some limitations on what could be taught at the schools. In Batman, the school is permitted to teach only conversational Kurdish and no grammar. The Batman school was printing textbooks and working on a dictionary. Teachers told consulate personnel that it was possible to buy Kurdish books in local stores in both Batman and Urfa. Right now, the registered students are 18 years of age or older, but there are plans at both schools to teach younger students. Qualified instructors will continue to be a problem because there is no formal higher education in the Kurdish language in Turkey. When consulate personnel asked the rector of a prominent university, he stated that there was no need for Kurdish in their language department. SERIOUS ABUSE DECLINING*DEMOCRATIZATION ON EVERYBODY,S MIND ¶6. (SBU) In Sanliurfa, human rights activists told us that reports of physical torture have significantly decreased, but that the Security Directorate continued to impede their efforts to assemble for meetings or presentations. According to one Sanliurfa NGO leader, the Security Directorate frequently refused to allow NGOs to hire halls or get permits for gatherings. A prominent Diyarbakir lawyer also stated that the overall civil rights situation was improving. The lawyer was pleased with the passage of EU reforms but stated that the implementation wasn,t taking place at the local administration level. For example, it might be legal now to give a child a Kurdish name, but it was still possible to encounter a local official who would refuse to register it. He noted that people living in southeast Turkey could be expected to oppose decentralization reform because of difficulties experienced with local officials. ¶7. (SBU) A prominent Diyarbakir business leader emphasized the importance of a solution in Cyprus to the democratization process in Turkey. The businessman stated that many in southeast Turkey believe that a Cyprus solution will speed up the EU accession process and lead to more democratic reforms. He added that with reform the parliament,s power would increase and &other organizations8 within the GOT would come under civil control. He emphasized (as consulate personnel heard in most meetings) his belief that the USG had the ability to strongly influence the GOT. SE LOCAL ELECTIONS DEHAP,S ONLY SERIOUS OPPOSITION IS DEHAP ¶8. (SBU) In Nusaybin, a local administration official told consulate personnel that the only serious opposition to DEHAP in southeast Turkey was DEHAP itself. He stated that there was an internal fault line separating the moderates from the more radical elements in the party (REF B). In Diyarbakir, a mayoral candidate related that the southeast was the one place where the AK Party and the military were getting along well. According to the candidate, AK Party and the military shared the common goal of seeing DEHAP factionalized and defeated. ¶9. (SBU) Many DEHAP supporters were clearly frustrated that KONGRA-GEL had been named a terrorist organization by the USG. In Mardin, DEHAP officials strongly supported a general amnesty to encourage militants to disarm and like most DEHAP officials and party supporters that spoke with consulate personnel, believed that the USG could strongly influence the GOT on this point. ¶9. (SBU) The effect KONGRA-GEL exerts on DEHAP was not clear from the meetings with local elected DEHAP officials, legal professionals, and human rights activists. In Batman, an elected DEHAP official stated that &if KONGRA-GEL orders everyone not to vote for DEHAP, not one vote will go to DEHAP8. On the other hand, a prominent civil rights lawyer in the same city noted DEHAP factionalization was being exacerbated by some DEHAP members, resistance to KONGRA-GEL pronouncements. In Nusaybin, for example, a local administration official related that KONGRA-GEL recently called for the closure of shops in the city as a protest, but few people responded. AK PARTY*PLAN OF ACTION FAILED IN BATMAN AND MARDIN ¶10. (SBU) There were signs that AK Party is making serious efforts to win voters in southeast Turkey. Common AK Party themes in Diyarbakir, Batman and Mardin were transparency and candidates native to the area with no record of corruption. The Diyarbakir AK Party Vice Chairman emphasized the importance the AK National Headquarters places on Diyarbakir; for example, PM Erdogan visited the city on March 14. In Batman, the AK Party Vice Chairman noted that the government had already sent 2000 tons of asphalt to Batman (even though they had a DEHAP mayor) and that the PM had promised that natural gas would be available by 2005. The Batman Vice Chairman described an impressive plan of action for the city. However, AK Party candidates in both Batman and Mardin were disqualified for not getting their applications submitted in time. ¶11. (SBU) The Diyarbakir CHP Chairman stated that personality is more important than the party affiliation in these elections, and that &people were only interested in the AK Party because the ruling party gets them more services8. This reminded consulate personnel of the Adana mayoralty race (REF C). Incumbent Aytac Durak (now officially the AK Party candidate) stated publicly that he only wanted to belong to a &stronger8 party. However, most Diyarbakir contacts with whom consulate personnel met, of whom some were rank and file voters and others party officials, showed strong ideological views as opposed to choosing based on personality as is more common in Adana or Mersin. ¶12. (SBU) During the course of this trip, contacts did not express any fears about casting their votes safely during the election process, but showed some concern that there would be irregularities. In Batman, one elected official suggested that there should be election observers sent to Southeast Turkey. SECURITY*CALM BUT POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY REMAINS ¶13. (SBU) Without exception, all contacts expressed their unease at the situation in Northern Iraq and stressed that any action taken by the USG there could threaten the stability in southeast Turkey. Recent events in northern Syria illustrate the volatility of the Kurdish issue (REF A). In Mardin, DEHAP officials told consulate personnel that DEHAP only represents Kurds in Turkey; KONGRA-GEL represents all Kurds, opening up the possibility that some unspecified action might be taken there by KONGRA-GEL. The situation remains calm near the Syrian border on the Turkish side, but this, and the situation in Northern Iraq, pose potential problems for stability, especially with Newroz and local elections approaching. ¶14. (SBU) There were some positive signs in local administration in Batman and Nusaybin. In Batman, SHP/DEHAP coalition party officials reported constructive dialogue with the security director and blamed the occasional arrest during demonstrations on a few racist police officers. One official stated that Batman was &more democratic than Diyarbakir or Siirt8. In contrast, on March 9, near Batman (on a road traveled by consulate vehicle on February 25) two jandarma were killed when a remotely controlled land mine was exploded, reportedly by PKK militants. ¶15. (SBU) In, Nusaybin, local administration showed genuine efforts to embrace diversity and promote conflict prevention. The subgovernor stated that in the recent year, residents had become more likely to declare themselves Turkish citizens, no matter what their ethnic background. Nusaybin is a diverse community of Christians, Muslims, Kurds and Arabs. Sociologists from Dokuz Eylul University had been invited to study the area to improve the cooperation of the various groups. The subgovernor had also made contacts in Europe with groups of Christian and Jewish former residents to encourage them to return to Nusaybin. Overall, the atmosphere remains calm in Nusaybin, however, on February 13, there was a clash between security forces and the militant group, People,s Defense Force (HPG). One militant was reported killed. The Nusaybin subgovernor,s office confirmed the report. INCENTIVE LAW, IRAQ TRADE SEEN AS UNLIKELY TO HELP ECONOMY ¶16. (SBU) Diyarbakir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) President Kutbettin Arzu praised the new tax incentive law, but stated that the inclusion of western cities as beneficiaries would negate any positive effect for the cities in the southeast (REF D). Mardin CCI President Faruk Ugurgel reported that the used industrial capacity in Mardin increased from 10-50% in the last year, but that there will be no new job creation until it reaches 100%. Some trade is being done with Iraq, according to Ugurgel, but profit margins on general goods such as foodstuffs and water, are being impacted by the $100-300/truck levy being collected on the Iraqi side of the Habur gate. ¶17. (SBU) Ugurgel confirmed that the operation of the gate was seriously degraded from prewar throughput. According to Ugurgel, prewar rate was 5000 trucks/day, now down to 1500 trucks/day, with an average wait of 10 days to clear the gate. Chamber members, he stated, would like to see a second gate at Nusaybin handling trucks to Iraq through Syria. Ugurgel explained that it would speed things up, and of course, a Nusaybin gate would be close to Mardin (also the closest free zone to Syria). The Mardin CCI President believed that this would facilitate trade with Iraq and Syria. When consulate personnel met with CCI officials in Diyarbakir, Mardin and Sanliurfa, all complained of a general lack of information on doing business with the CPA or in Iraq. The CCI officials didn,t expect to profit from trade with Iraq when they couldn,t understand the contracting process. ¶18. (SBU) Consulate personnel met with Diyarbakir Grameen Microcredit Project Director Abdul Matin. Matin reported no problems with managing or funding the project. He expected further funding to be forthcoming from the Soros Foundation in the near future. The project consists of groups of 8-10 recipients, each of whom receives a small loan (about 500 million Turkish lira) and is required to pay it back in a specified time. Matin reported a 99% repayment success. Mostly the beneficiaries are buying and selling small market goods, but some have formed cooperatives and made larger investments, such as a washing machine. The only negative feedback that consulate personnel received was from a NGO director, who expressed concern over the project,s political support from an AK party parliamentarian. ¶19. (SBU) The most visible signs of economic prosperity were in Batman and Sanliurfa. In Batman, consulate personnel noted an unusual number of Ankara (6) and Istanbul (34) plates. It is common for the elite of a southeastern city to register their cars in Ankara or Istanbul and maintain residences there as well. To have an Istanbul or Ankara license plate is considered a status symbol. Incumbent DEHAP Mayor Huseyin Kalkan reported the unemployment at 17%. The mayor described a 39 million Euro loan from a German bank for infrastructure improvements. Of the 39 million Euro total, 20 million was to be a grant and 19 million a long term loan. Kalkan complained the Treasury Department was delaying the project by refusing to cosign on the loan. ¶20. (SBU) In Sanliurfa, the CCI office was extremely well-appointed and the CCI President asserted that in southeast Turkey, Sanliurfa was probably one of the most successful cities. CCI President Ismail Demirkol noted the superhighway planned from Gaziantep to Sanliurfa and road widening from Mardin to Urfa. Demirkol also stated that the Sanliurfa cargo airport is 70% complete. ¶21. (U) However, the current road from Mardin to Gaziantep is easily the worst major highway consulate personnel travel on in the region, used by a large number of heavily loaded vehicles, most of them on the way to Habur Gate. There are overturned fuel trucks every few kilometers and the ditches along the highway are filled with spilled petroleum products not water. EDELMAN