TURKISH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: POLLSTERS SEE HUGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001710

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: POLLSTERS SEE HUGE
VICTORY FOR RULING AKP

Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman. Reason: 1.4 (b,d).



1. (SBU) Summary: A group of pollsters and political
scientists predicted to Ambassador March 18 that the ruling
AKP will win between 45-55 percent of the vote in March 28
municipal elections. AKP's success will create high public
expectations, which the party may have trouble meeting.
Meanwhile, AKP's opponents -- including CHP -- are likely to
fare poorly. End Summary.


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Sweeping AKP Victory...
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2. (SBU) On March 18 Ambassador hosted a group of public
opinion polling experts and political scientists from Ankara
and Istanbul to discuss March 28 municipal elections. The
consensus among the experts is that the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) will receive between 45-55 percent of
the total vote. If it achieves that level of support, AKP
will be one of only a handful of sitting government parties
in modern Turkish history that have received a higher
percentage of votes in municipal elections, according to the
pollsters. The polling experts were united in predicting AKP
victories in Istanbul and Ankara, among others. Those who
discussed Izmir -- traditionally a bastion of the center-left
-- think that the race is extremely close. They also noted
that an important yardstick for AKP will be how many seats
the party wins in municipal assemblies across Turkey but
offered no firm prediction as to the party's possible
performance.



3. (C) On the evening of the 18th, Tarhan Erdem, prominent
columnist for the daily Radikal and owner of the polling firm
A&G Research Firm, released the results of his own surveys in
Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir on the prominent news channel
NTV. His findings largely echo that of the other pollsters:
AKP will receive 58 percent in Istanbul and 68 percent in
Ankara. Erdem's data, however, show that opposition CHP has
a commanding lead in Izmir -- 49 percent to AKP's 33 percent.
We have heard from one prominent pollster that the Turkish
military commissions Erdem's firm to conduct its polling, a
practice our contacts have acknowledged has been going on for
years.


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...Could Lead to Problems Down the Road
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4. (SBU) The pollsters and political scientists agreed that a
sweeping victory will present several difficulties for AKP.
Chief among them will be increased public expectations and
the huge demand for local service the populace will place on
newly elected mayors. Professor Ali Carkoglu of Sabanci
University pointed out that statistically, it is inevitable
that AKP has chosen some less than ideal candidates for
Turkey's 3,200 or so mayoralties, where family influence and
parochial interests often influence how parties choose
candidates. Carkoglu also noted that an overwhelming victory
for AKP could spawn splits within the party, citing a
government led by former President and P.M. Suleyman Demirel
in the early 1970s that fell apart after huge electoral
gains.


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Opposition Gone Missing
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5. (SBU) The group of political observers were united in
predicting a poor showing for the main opposition Republican
People's Party (CHP). They said that CHP has been
consistently polling between 11-13 percent over the last
several months. Carkoglu and Ozer Sencar, director of the
public opinion firm Pollmark, separately noted, however, that
CHP has received a slight boost in the last two weeks.
During that time, party leader Deniz Baykal and P.M. Erdogan
have exchanged public verbal barbs, which has energized some
of the otherwise hopeless CHP base. Carkoglu and Sencar
asserted that, as a result, CHP may receive 16-18 percent of
the overall vote.



6. (SBU) Sencar claimed that CHP's biggest problem is
relating to the Turkish public, whose voting behavior is
changing in ways CHP cannot or will not take into account.
Sencar contended that the Turkish electorate is no longer
beholden to the idea of "Father State" (Devlet Baba) as a
panacea, nor does it merely support whichever party professes
to protect the "Sacred State" (Kutsal Devlet). Voters are
more independent-minded, Sencar said, which CHP has not fully
digested.



7. (SBU) The experts did not foresee any significant gains by
any other opposition party. They predict: 1) the alliance
between Kurdish DEHAP and the left-of-center
Social-democratic People's party (SHP) will receive 5-9
percent; 2) the True Path Party (DYP) under the stewardship
of Mehmet Agar will receive around 9 percent; and 3)
xenophobic Genc Party (GP) will win only 2-5 percent.



8. (C) Many of our political contacts -- both inside and
outside AKP -- over the last several weeks have told us that
AKP could face severe internal strains if it does as well as
the polls are predicting. Most recently, in a private March
19 meeting, AKP Ankara provincial chief and member of the
party's executive board Nurettin Akman expressed sincere
dismay that there is no strong political opposition to his
own party. "We need a strong, constructive opposition to
keep us on course," he said. He added candidly that many in
the party fear that they may make a misstep or "miss
something important" after March 28.


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Voter Trends
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9. (SBU) The lack of a viable political opposition may
negatively affect voter turnout on March 28, according to the
polling experts. Professor Yilmaz Esmer of Bogazici
University asserted that Turks are more likely to stay home
from the polls this year than ever. Esmer noted that there
may only be a 60-percent turnout. As a result, although AKP
may win 50 percent of the vote, this will be a much smaller
proportion of the possible vote. The low turnout, therefore,
will strengthen the already prevalent view among AKP
opponents that there is a democratic deficit in Turkey.
Currently, AKP opponents argue that the party has a
disproportionate number of seats in Parliament: two-thirds
even though it received only 34 percent of the vote in Nov.

2002.



10. (SBU) The pollsters and political scientists also agreed
that foreign policy issues are not important in local
elections. Cyprus, for example, will not be a factor, they
claimed.
EDELMAN