TURKEY: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES UPCOMING LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001436

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2009
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES UPCOMING LOCAL
ELECTIONS WITH OPPOSITION CHP LEADER BAYKAL

(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman. Reason: 1.4 (b,d).



1. (C) Summary: In a March 5 meeting, Ambassador solicited
main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz
Baykal's views of March 28 local elections. Throughout the
discussion, Baykal attempted to downplay the importance of
the elections and seemed resigned to a poor CHP showing. End
Summary.



2. (C) During a lengthy monologue on local elections in
general, CHP leader Baykal made the following points as he
led up to a weak defense of his party's expected poor showing:


-- The GOT is still relatively new to governance, and the
electorate will want to give the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) more time;


-- Voting-age Turks, who remember past economic and political
crises, will support AKP in the name of stability;


-- Turks will vote not along party lines but for the
candidate that seems to be best positioned to deliver more
efficient and effective local administration.


-- Turks universally believe that the party in power will be
better able to do so, which means many will vote for AKP
candidates regardless of their own party affiliation.


-- Results in local elections are, therefore, more often the
product of immediate voter needs versus true political
preferences.



3. (C) Reflecting on CHP's election strategy, Baykal asserted
that on the center-left, CHP is the only viable option. The
party has no difficulties on the center-left, he claimed. As
part of a national, more long-term strategy, CHP is now
turning to center-right voters who are not pleased with the
GOT's performance to date. "We are trying to reach out to
these voters because we share many of the same values,"
Baykal said. He further claimed corruption in the GOT and
ongoing concern about "national issues" like Cyprus will
eventually lead center-right voters to CHP.



4. (C) When pressed about his expectations of CHP's
performance in local elections, Baykal dodged, saying the
party had no target in mind. He added that CHP "is doing
what it thinks it should be doing. We do our best." A
clearly resigned Baykal averred that he and the party
leadership will surely be criticized -- both from within the
party and in the press -- following the local elections.
"But we're used to it," he said. In any case, Baykal noted,
CHP leadership does not ascribe much importance to local
elections, adding that "I don't take them very seriously."
EDELMAN