Prime Minister leads AK Party press to win two

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001423 SIPDIS ANKARA PASS IZMIR SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR TU SUBJECT: Prime Minister leads AK Party press to win two big Southeast mayoralties This is a joint Embassy Ankara/Consualte Adana cable. 1.(SBU) Summary: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Adana twice last week and Mersin once to plug ruling AK Party (AKP) candidates for the Adana and Mersin municipality races. AKP's recent decision to accept current frontrunner and maverick incumbent Adana mayor Aytac Durak into the party has resulted in an alliance of convenience which has unsettled local AKP members. It is also seen in Adana as evidence of AKP's determination to use its national incumbency to spread its regional power base. Mahmut Arslan, endorsed by Erdogan as AKP's candidate for Mersin Mayor, is a Kurd originally from Mardin, whom AKP apparently hopes can successfully woo many voters from the immigrant city's strong pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) bloc. This is a riskier strategy for AKP and may split the Kurdish vote in Mersin enough to allow incumbent CHP mayor Macit Ozcan to retain power. Meanwhile, AKP stumbled in two smaller southeast venues, Mardin and Batman, where it filed its respective mayoral candidates' papers too late to meet central election commission qualification deadlines. End Summary. AKP rolling out big gun to win Adana, Mersin ¶2. (U) Prime Minister Erdogan visited Adana twice and Mersin once the week of Feb. 23 to plug ruling AKP candidates for the Adana and Mersin municipality races. Erdogan, accompanied by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, used the Sugozu power plant opening in Yumurtalik in Adana province to highlight AKP's job creation potential in the area and energize party officials. He followed up with a whirlwind trip to Adana and Mersin on February 29. Durak's long rein in Adana City Hall checkered 3.(U) Durak, currently serving his third term and 13th consecutive year as Adana mayor, is governing under the Motherland Party (ANAP) mantle. He served in his previous mayoral terms under the True Path (DYP) and ANAP banners. A contractor, he has become quite wealthy during his incumbency. AK choice of Durak controversial in party rank and file ¶4. (U) As soon as Erdogan on February 29 announced AKP's endorsement of Durak's candidacy for greater Adana alongside the other two AKP candidates for the two local Adana municipalities hecklers and local AKP disaffected start booing and jeering. Erdogan immediately put them in place with sharp retorts from the podium. The next day, March 1, Adana AKP chairman Abdullah Dogru sharply stated in area newspapers that no one in AKP has a right to criticize Durak's candidacy for AKP and called for party discipline. He threatened party expulsion for any who might further criticize the choice, saying "Tayyip Erdogan appointed him, we have to accept Durak and show respect for him." Then on March 2, Dogru expelled an AKP member for continuing criticism of Durak's nomination. CHP and ANAP not fielding strong Adana candidates 5.(SBU) CHP supporters are grumbling, too, about their party's choice of Bulent Ozulku, a majority shareholder in Adana's Universal hospital, as the CHP mayoral candidate. He has been tried in State Security Court in the past and, after CHP endorsed him, newspapers in the area featured file pictures with him in handcuffs . Both Ozulku and Umit Ozgumus, Adana Chamber of Industry President until he announced his Adana mayoral candidacy on the ANAP ticket, are rumored to have organized crime connections, although none of these allegations has ever been substantiated. Mersin a close CHP-AKP race 6.(SBU) In Mersin, incumbent CHP mayor Macit Ozcan is racing neck-and-neck with AKP candidate Mahmut Arslan, a Kurd originally from Mardin, whom AKP apparently hopes can successfully woo many voters from the immigrant city's strong pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) bloc. DEHAP is trying to bolster its support for Socialist People's party (SHP) candidate Fikri Saglar by pursuing a joint ticket with SHP. Mersin business community contacts note that Ozcan is popular in the city because of the public infrastructure he has built in his last term. They also predicted a split in the city's sizeable Kurdish vote, with Arslan receiving the lion's share, benefiting the Ozcan campaign. Still, strong campaigning by AKP, including deployment of Prime Minister Erdogan on Arslan's behalf and the public relations coaching of p.r. guru Abdulrahman Celik (rumored to be very close to controversial Islamist leader Fethullah Gulen),leave the race's final outcome still open, they said. AKP less organized in Southeast 7.(U) AKP stumbled in two smaller southeast venues, Mardin and Batman, where the party filed its mayoral candidates' papers too late to meet central election commission deadlines for participation, according to press reports confirmed to Amconsul by AKP officials. DYP was also disqualified by the central election commission on similar grounds in Mardin. Comment: 8.(SBU) Now that it has snared Durak for its bandwagon, AKP seems likely to gain, in Adana, a large new Turkish municipality for its political base. The price it might pay in both a tarnished public image and disaffected local rank-and-file is yet to be seen. It also stands a chance of winning, in Mersin, another large municipality, although that race is still a toss- up with CHP and affected by Kurdish perceptions across the southeast that AKP is too nationalist and indifferent to the Kurdish question. We suspect the difficulties AKP has in Mardin and Batman reflect the party's uneasy relations with Kurds; we will continue to follow up with AKP and others to assess where these relations are going in the southeast. End Comment. EDELMAN