TURKEY: LEADING KURDS IN ANKARA DIVIDED ON SPLITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001418

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: LEADING KURDS IN ANKARA DIVIDED ON SPLITS
IN KONGRA GEL AND DEHAP


(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter;
reasons: 1.5 (b,d).



1. (C) Summary: Kurdish DEHAP leaders in Ankara have asserted
to us that apparent splits in terrorist Kongra Gel and in the
Kurdish DEHAP are ephemeral. While allowing that a
"misunderstanding" arose in Kongra Gel, they deny its
seriousness and claim the dispute is being exaggerated by
local media and elements of the Turkish State intent on
weakening the organization's influence in Turkey. They also
deny any lasting problems within DEHAP itself. In stark
contrast, a close Embassy contact with deep ties to Turkey's
Southeast and northern Iraq said the rifts run deep and are
not likely to fade. Given DEHAP's political equities, we
give more weight to our close contact's commentary. End
Summary.



2. (SBU) Recent press reports are highlighting apparent
divisions in Kongra Gel, the latest iteration of the
terrorist PKK, and in the Kurdish political party DEHAP,
explicitly linking the splits to a reported ideological
debate within both organizations. Mainstream dailies have
been focusing on assertions that Osman Ocalan, the brother of
jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, has abandoned Kongra Gel
camps in northern Iraq with some followers, an event that
apparently corresponded with disagreements within DEHAP about
who would run for mayor of Diyarbakir in upcoming local
elections.


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DEHAP: Internal Kongra Gel Dispute Temporary
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3. (C) March 2, DEHAP chairman Tuncer Bakirhan and party Vice
Chairman Nazmi Gur downplayed to us the press reports of
Osman Ocalan leaving Kongra Gel. Although reluctant to
acknowledge any direct DEHAP contact with Kongra Gel,
Bakirhan allowed that a "misunderstanding" arose recently
within Kongra Gel's rank and file, but he did not elaborate.
He asserted that the dispute is temporary, not based on any
ideological differences, and that Abdullah Ocalan will
resolve the issue soon from prison. In any case, Bakirhan
claimed, "Abdullah Ocalan will never make a decision that
will undermine the unity of Kongra Gel."



4. (C) Bakirhan further argued that the some members of the
media and the Turkish State are exaggerating the split to
weaken Kongra Gel itself and the organization's influence in
Turkey. There is a six-hundred-year tradition of repression
in Turkey, he said, during which Kurds led 29 rebellions
against Ottoman and Turkish rule. He averred that elements
of the State have an interest in maintaining or even
exacerbating this tension between Kurds and the State -- a
policy that could ultimately backfire by fostering a more
radical Kurdish faction, he claimed.


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DEHAP: Internal Party Dispute Personality-Driven
-------------- ---



5. (C) Turning to DEHAP infighting, Bakirhan and Gur
explained that DEHAP chose to leave current Diyarbakir mayor
Feridun Celik off of its election ticket for the upcoming
polls and instead selected popular attorney and Kurdish
rights advocate Osman Baydemir as its candidate. Celik later
announced that he will run as an independent candidate, a
move interpreted by the media as an indication of a wider
divide within DEHAP. Both Bakirhan and Gur were at pains to
reject speculation that Celik's move will divide the party
and denied any connection between internal DEHAP wrangling
and the potential split in Kongra Gel.



6. (C) Explaining the party's decision, Gur claimed that
DEHAP's own public opinion research in Diyarbakir revealed
that Celik ranked fourth among potential party candidates for
mayor. Gur also asserted that Kurds in Diyarbakir consider
Celik to be an ineffective mayor, one who has not addressed
the city's infrastructure and other economic problems. Gur
also noted that Celik sees himself as a rival to Bakirhan,
adding that he hopes Celik runs for office as an independent
because a DEHAP victory in that case will provide further
evidence of the party's strength. For his part, Bakirhan
claimed that in consulting public opinion and local NGOs,
DEHAP chose its candidate in "the most democratic" way
possible. Mocking Celik's candidacy, Bakirhan said "if Celik
gets 1,001 votes in Diyarbakir, I will quit politics."


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Not so Fast
--------------



7. (C) In a private March 4 meeting, a leading Kurdish
right-of-center politician and longtime Embassy contact with
excellent access to both Kurdish nationalist and Islamist
circles told poloff that in contrast to the glass-half-full
scenario Bakirhan and Gur describe, the rifts in both
organizations are genuine and are not likely to go away soon.
Our contact said he had heard from several Kurdish sources
in northern Iraq that Osman Ocalan had broken away from
Kongra Gel. He averred that Osman Ocalan represents a more
"conservative" -- that is, more pragmatic in its Kurdish
nationalism -- group within Kongra Gel. The other faction,
he said, is led by Cemil Bayik, whom he sees as more militant
and deeply disappointed with USG Iraq policy. Our contact
asserted that the split is likely to be permanent.



8. (C) Our contact noted that the rift in Kongra Gel is
having concurrent ripple effects on DEHAP, which he said is
splitting along similar lines. He said there is some
ideological convergence between hardcore leftist Kurds in
DEHAP and Cemil Bayik's strident Kurdish nationalists. In
addition, he claimed, the intra-party squabbling is also a
symptom of an internal struggle over the party's financial
resources. Those who were left off the DEHAP election ticket
are resentful and are promoting friction within the party
ranks, he added.



9. (C) Our contact contended that, as a result of
internal party disputes, another Kurdish party could arise
following local elections. For now, he argued, the factions
will hang together to ensure a victory for DEHAP, since it is
the only Kurdish party at the moment. To confirm his
analysis, our contact phoned Feridun Celik during the
meeting. Celik said he will soon withdraw his candidacy from
the Diyarbakir race, added cryptically that "after March 28,
something new will begin."


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COMMENT
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10. (C) We take Bakirhan's and Gur's comments with a
grain of salt. As DEHAP leaders, both have a clear incentive
to downplay splits within the party and Kongra Gel. While
their comments about the relative poor performance of Celik
and other DEHAP mayors echo what we have heard from contacts
in the Southeast and in Ankara, their arguments that current
differences will be reconciled in time were unconvincing.
EDELMAN