SCENESETTER FOR U/S GROSSMAN'S VISIT TO TURKEY:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001258

SIPDIS


AMMAN PLEASE PASS TO U/S GROSSMAN


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PTER PINS ECON TU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR U/S GROSSMAN'S VISIT TO TURKEY:
WHERE DOES TURKEY FIT INTO THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST (GME)
INITIATIVE?


REF: ANKARA 1230


(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman; reasons: E.O.
12958 1.4 (b) and (d).



1. (C) Summary: Your visit to Ankara is a key opportunity
to explain the Greater Middle East Initiative (GME) and to
listen to Turkey's ideas about GME. Although GME has
generated considerable commentary, few here understand its
methods or aims. Internally, Turkey's path towards EU
accession dovetails well with GME objectives, but success is
not assured. Regionally, Turkey's example of internally
generating NATO and EU-oriented reform will be instructive
for others. However, in helping the Turks to fashion their
regional GME role, we must be cognizant of the Turks'
historical baggage in the region and the problematical
question of Islam in Turkey, and we must avoid a perception
of Turkey as the U.S.'s regional gendarme. End Summary.


GME in Turkey: Lots of Comments, Little Understanding



2. (C) In the last month, GME has been the subject of
considerable press commentary, both negative and positive.
Some Embassy interlocutors have asked us about GME and
Turkey's role (the TGS, for example, reftel). Your
interlocutors are eager to hear Washington's thinking on the
details of GME -- and to give you their input.



3. (C) This latter point is crucial, because GME's emphasis
on supporting reforms originating within the region is in
danger of being drowned out by a chorus of nay-sayers who
paint GME as enforcement of Washington-imposed ideology, with
Turkey playing the role of Washington's gendarme. Your
willingness to listen to and incorporate Turkey's ideas will
be a good antidote.


Making Turkey a Success



4. (C) At the January Islamic Economic Forum in Jeddah and
in his speech at Harvard University during his U.S. visit PM
Erdogan spoke out in favor of democracy and reform in the
Islamic world. At preceding OIC meetings in Tehran and Kuala
Lumpur, FM Gul laid out an even broader vision for
democratization and reform. In many senses, both men were
also talking obliquely but very consciously about the need
for transformation in their own country.



5. (C) The movement to improve Turkey's democracy, in the
political sphere, hinges on the resolution of three
fundamental questions:


-- the place of religion (both Islam and "minority"
religions) in society;
-- ethnic identity and national identity;
-- individual rights and the relation between citizen and
State (e.g., establishing real rule of law).



6. (C) It will be important to stress to the Turks that GME
is not only about changing politics, but also about
encouraging economic policies that produce greater
prosperity. Turkey can lead by example via pursuit of sound
economic policies and reforms, and also can make the point to
its neighbors that the region will only succeed economically
if it adopts sound, market-based policies based on rule of
law.


EU Accession: A Ready Vehicle, But Beware Complacency



7. (C) Turkey's current focus on EU accession has been a
ready vehicle for the internal changes Turkey needs to be
successful. Turkey's focus on getting a date to begin EU
accession talks has translated into an effective impetus for
reform. Although the Copenhagen Criteria are a de facto
external discipline, there is widespread sentiment that these
are things Turkey needs to do for its own good.



8. (C) However, Turkey's success is not a given. The Turks
have done well in passing laws, but now need to implement
them. Everyday life in Ankara yields up examples where the
basic elements of individual rights and rule of law are not
respected. Turkey's EU supporters stress that complacency
now will jeopardize Turkey's chances of getting a date in
December. Even if Turkey does begin accession talks, the
road to accession will be arduous. Faced with a long haul,
the current political focus and burst of energy for reforms
could flag.



9. (C) The Turkish economy has improved significantly over
the past year, greatly reducing fears of renewed financial
crisis and generating hope for sustained, low-inflation
growth. However, this improvement has generated complacency
among government leaders, who fail to understand that the
economy's huge debt and structural weaknesses leave it
vulnerable. Unless Turkey implements reforms systematically,
it will miss the opportunity to move toward sustainable
prosperity and away from the boom-and-bust cycles that have
haunted it.



10. (C) Your interlocutors will readily agree when you stress
the importance of fulfilling the Copenhagen Criteria before
December, and they will welcome your point that this
dovetails with GME objectives. This is an opportunity to
make the point that we view GME as a generational commitment,
requiring long-term political and economic momentum.


Turkey's Regional GME Role



11. (C) Some of our Turkish interlocutors have asked us
about what Turkey's regional GME role will be. While
recognizing that Turkey's democracy and economy are still
works in progress, Turks are proud of their achievements,
especially over the last year, and many are willing to play a
regional role. Several GOT officials have encouraged us to
consult closely with Ankara on GME, believing that Turks'
long association with the region can be useful in refining
the initiative.



12. (C) Turkey has for decades seen itself and been seen as
an east-west bridge. Turks are accustomed to being NATO's
eastern bridge and are on the verge of becoming the EU's
eastern bridge. Turkey's experiences in integrating itself
into these institutions are consistent with core GME
objectives. Turkey's example of internally generating reform
will be instructive for others. Moreover, Ankara will
welcome opportunities to share its experiences with others in
the region -- experiences in making laws more democratic,
training military and police to respect civilian rule and
human rights, opening up markets. Turks can also deliver
some messages about the need for Middle East societies to
face up to their problems more easily than the U.S.




Avoiding Pitfalls



13. (C) However, in working together with the Turks to
fashion their GME role, we need to avoid three pitfalls.
First, we must recognize that Turkey has considerable
historical baggage in the region and can easily engender
resentment in its neighbors. Turks have a difficult time
understanding and accepting this. The GME challenge for
Turkey is to create a constructive regional role that avoids
pushing the wrong buttons with its neighbors.



14. (C) Second, we need to recognize that dubbing Turkey a
model of a successful "Muslim country" poses internal and
external problems. Internally, the unresolved question of
Islam's place in Turkey is the source of considerable tension.



15. (C) Third, we need to avoid feeding the misperception
that Washington views Turkey as its regional gendarme. The
Istanbul Cooperation Initiative will focus on hard power, and
the Turks will want to take a leading role as NATO pursues
it. However, we should make sure that the Turks and others
in the region understand that GME is chiefly about assisting
reform -- political, economic and military -- not the
application of hard power.
EDELMAN