IN JORDAN, CROWN PRINCES COME AND GO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009486

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINR JO
SUBJECT: IN JORDAN, CROWN PRINCES COME AND GO

Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) In a surprise move, King Abdullah relieved his
brother Hamza of his duties as Crown Prince on November 28,
igniting speculation among Jordanians over the King's
motives. The King did not name Hamza's replacement. Until
he does so, the constitution provides that Abdullah's eldest
son, ten-year-old Prince Hussein, now assumes the position.
While many expected the King eventually to replace Hamza,
many question the timing of the sudden announcement. Coming
just months before Hamza graduates and returns to Jordan
permanently, it appears to be an attempt by the King to
preempt any drift of popularity to his appealing
half-brother. Although it will exacerbate already frosty
relations with Queen Noor and her offspring (and undoubtedly
upset many ordinary Jordanians infatuated with Hamza),
Abdullah's decision signals his growing sense of confidence.
Others may interpret it as a sign of weakness that he feels
threatened by Hamza, and the timing has been seen by some as
premature in light of the venerated father's wish to bridge
this particular family fault line. Royal Court Minister
Rifai told us that there would be no designation of a new
crown prince, as the King wanted all of his brothers and his
son to develop independent careers and normal personalities
without the weight of succession on their shoulders, and to
avoid the fractiousness that can come with a named
succession. End Summary and Comment.

--------------
KING "FREES" CROWN PRINCE FROM HIS DUTIES
--------------


2. (U) On November 28, Jordan's Royal Palace released a
letter from King Abdullah to Prince Hamzah, relieving Hamza
of his duties as Crown Prince. The letter argued with some
contradiction that Hamza would be ready for other duties by
being "freed from the constraints" of a position that is
elsewhere in the letter described as symbolic, without
authority or responsibility. The letter states that for five
years Abdullah adhered to his father's wishes in keeping the
CP position an "honorary" one, but seems to indicate that
with this change, the nature of the position will also be
amended. "I have been keen on explaining the true picture
and embodying the substance, which is derived from the
Constitution, of the position of the crown prince. This post
is an honorary one; it does not give the person who assumes
it any powers and does not make him bear any
responsibilities." The King adds that given the difficult
regional situation: "I have decided to relieve you of the
position of crown price so that you will have greater freedom
and power to move, act, and undertake any missions or
responsibilities I assign you."


3. (C) The letter does not mention a new Crown Prince by
name, although the King wrote he would give the vacancy his
"sincere attention" as guided by the constitution. The
Jordanian constitution provides that in the absence of an
appointed Crown Prince, the responsibility falls to the
King's eldest son -- in this case, ten-year-old Prince
Hussein. Given Hussein's youth, the King is required to
appoint a regent who would serve, in the event of Abdullah's
death, until young Hussein's eighteenth birthday. Despite
rumors to the contrary, Royal Court Minister Samir al-Rifai
told Charge that the King has no intention of naming a Crown
Prince in the near or medium term future. The whole point of
"liberating" Hamza from the role was to enable him to develop
his own career and more normal relations with a cross section
of Jordanians, much as Abdullah believes he benefited when
his father removed him from the succession at the age of
five. Similarly, he wants none of his brothers or his son to
suffer a burden that is symbolic in nature but can sow
divisions within the family and society. Nor does he want
his son to make assumptions about his future and develop the
laziness that can come from the certainty of succession


4. (C) This is not the first time Jordan has seen an abrupt
change in the formal lines of succession. The late King
Hussein, on his death-bed, stripped the title from Hassan and
passed it to Abdullah. Abdullah himself lost the rank in the
1960s when his father first appointed Hassan to the role.
Part of the deathbed realignment included giving the title to
Hamza, the eldest son of the then-reigning Queen, Noor. This
step was designed to bridge one of the internal Hashemite
fault lines, between the children of Noor and the others. It
also appealed to Hussein, whose special affinity for Hamza
(whom he called the "apple of my eye") is well known in
Jordan.

--------------
WHY NOW?
--------------

5. (C) While few expected Hamza to ever rule, the timing
and motivations of this change have caused intense
speculation in Amman, and is likely to ignite some criticism
of the King. Hamza is set to complete his undergraduate
studies in the U.S. this academic year, and had planned to
return to Amman and take up more actively his princely
duties. Rifai admitted this was a factor in the King's
thinking -- that the imminent return made it important to
clarify Hamza's role. This may be true, but not for the
reasons provided by palace spin. Hamza for many Jordanians
fits an image of the romantic, storybook prince, and an
idolized version of his father. (In government offices, the
obligatory photos of Hussein and Abdullah are on the walls,
but we have seen on more than one secretary's desk a more
personal framed photo of the heart-throb, Hamza.) His
mannerisms and speech eerily recall those of his father, and
his fluent classical Arabic contrasts with Abdullah's more
colloquial (accent-inflected) style, learned in the barracks.
More significantly, Hamza shows signs of being more
interested than Abdullah in shifting sails to populist winds
-- undoubtedly a concern for this progressive, Western-minded
king. Hamza has absorbed much of his mother's reserved
attitude toward U.S. foreign policy in the region, and shows
no enthusiasm for the foreign policy courses adopted by
Abdullah. On balance, Abdullah may have concluded it was
better to make the switch now, before Hamza returned and
developed -- simply by being Hamza -- a magnet of loyalty
away from Abdullah. The rivalry between two Queens -- Rania
and Hamza's mother, Noor -- may also have contributed to the
move. The atmosphere in the palace during Noor's recent
visit to Jordan, last month, could not have been frostier.


6. (C) Many Jordanians are likely to see this step as
premature, at best. There is general respect for Abdullah's
ability to steer Jordan through exceptional challenges since
Hussein's death. However, the core of his support arises
from those with unshakable faith in the acts of his father,
including that of appointing Abdullah as successor at the
eleventh hour. Several contacts see Abdullah's decision --
which to them comes out of the blue -- as defying the late
Hussein's dying wish to bridge family differences, and view
the announcement as just the latest salvo against Queen Noor,
who retains a reserve of popular goodwill developed during
Hussein's last illness. One activist told poloff that she
was put off by the way it was handled, noting that the
wording of the letter was "insincere." She said the
responsibilities of the CP are not defined in the
constitution and open to interpretation, and the King has the
authority to make it as important as he wants it to be. One
human rights activist dismissed the event as a mere sideshow
to the real challenges facing Jordan -- regionally and
domestically.


7. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.

Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page.
HALE