JORDANIAN PUBLIC AND MEDIA REACTION TO PRESIDENT BUSH'S

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009153

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ELA; NEA/PA, INR/NESA, R/MR, I/GNEA, B/BXN, B/BRN,
NEA/PPD, NEA/IPA FOR ALTERMAN
USAID/ANE/MEA
LONDON FOR GOLDRICH


E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: KMDR JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN PUBLIC AND MEDIA REACTION TO PRESIDENT BUSH'S
RE-ELECTION



1. OUTSIDE RULING CIRCLES, POST'S JORDANIAN CONTACTS REACTED
WITH SUBDUED EMOTIONS TO THE RE-ELECTION OF PRESIDENT BUSH. MOST
REMAIN HIGHLY CRITICAL OF U.S. POLICIES TOWARDS THE ARAB-ISRAELI
CONFLICT AND IRAQ, BUT DOUBT THAT A KERRY ADMINISTRATION WOULD
HAVE PURSUED SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT POLICIES. SEVERAL MEMBERS
OF PARLIAMENT EXPRESSED DISAPPOINTMENT, AND ONE UNIVERSITY
PROFESSOR SAID HE BELIEVES THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PURSUE
"AGGRESSIVE" POLICIES, ESPECIALLY IN IRAQ.


2. MOST JORDANIAN PRESS COMMENTATORS DECRIED THE BUSH REELECTION
AS THE REINFORCEMENT OF A "UNILATERALIST", OR "CHRISTIAN-RIGHT"
DIRECTION IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY. SOME CYNICS, ON THE OTHER
HAND, WELCOMED THE BUSH VICTORY WHICH, ACCORDING TO THEM, WOULD
ALIENATE U.S. ALLIES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, AND
EVENTUALLY CREATE INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE THAT WOULD CHANGE THE
U.S. COURSE. BUT OTHER PRESS COMMENTATORS SAID THAT THEY HAD
BEEN HOPING FOR A KERRY VICTORY IN ORDER TO PUNISH PRESIDENT BUSH
"FOR HIS POLICIES REGARDING IRAQ AND THE PALESTINIANS."


3. SENIOR OFFICIALS WITHIN THE GOJ AND THE PALACE, ON THE OTHER
HAND, WERE PLEASED WITH THE ELECTION RESULTS, AS WERE MANY REGIME
STALWARTS, WHO VIEW THE U.S. RELATIONSHIP AS ESSENTIAL TO
JORDAN'S STABILITY. SENATE PRESIDENT ZAID RIFAI, FOR EXAMPLE,
EXPRESSED HIS SATISFACTION TO CHARGE WITH THE OUTCOME OF THE
ELECTION.


4. FOLLOWING ARE SOME REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES OF EDITORIAL
COMMENTARIES ON THE RE-ELECTION OF PRESIDENT BUSH

-- A LETTER THAT WILL NOT BE READ BY THE WINNING PRESIDENT

YASSER ABOU HILALEH WROTE IN THE DAILY AL-GHAD ON NOVEMBER 4: "I
WRITE TO THE PRESIDENT JUST FOR THE SAKE OF HAVING DONE MY BIT,
KNOWING THAT HIS ADVISERS WOULD NOT UNEARTH MY ARTICLE AMONG THE
PILES OF WHAT WILL BE WRITTEN, AND THAT THEY WOULD NOT FIND TIME
TO SYNOPSIZE AND TRANSLATE IT. WITH ALL MY PRAYERS FOR A MIRACLE
THAT LEADS TO MR. BUSH'S DOWNFALL, I SAY TO HIM: `ARAB AND MUSLIM
PEOPLE ARE UNHAPPY ABOUT YOUR REELECTION, THOUGH WE ARE CERTAIN
THAT YOUR RIVAL, KERRY WOULD NOT BE BETTER IN DEALING WITH US.
WE WANTED TO PUNISH YOU FOR THE ENMITY THAT YOU BEAR TOWARDS US,
NOT TO REWARD YOUR RIVAL FOR THE ENMITY THAT WOULD BE FORTHCOMING
HAD HE WON. SO WHAT ARE WE TO DO AFTER YOUR RE-ELECTION? THE
PEOPLES WILL CONTINUE TO BURN YOU IN EFFIGY AND TO DEMONSTRATE
AGAINST YOUR POLICIES. OUR RULERS, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL BE
EXTRA CAREFUL AND IMPLEMENT YOUR REFORM PROGRAM TO THE LETTER,
BECAUSE THEY KNOW FULL WELL THAT YOU TOPPLED TWO REGIMES IN YOUR
FIRST TERM."

-- THE BALANCE SHEET ON FOUR HARSH YEARS

JAMIL AL-NIMRI WROTE IN THE DAILY AL-ARAB AL-YAWM: "THE BETTER
AND MORE EDUCATED AMERICA, LEADING NEWSPAPERS, THE EDUCATED,
ARTISTS, ALL FOUGHT AGAINST BUSH; BUT IN THE END, IGNORANCE AND
FEAR HAD THE LAST WORD. NOW WE HAVE TO LIVE WITH THE RIGHT-WING
RELIGIOUS REACTIONARY WAVE THAT ANGERED THE WORLD, AND THAT IS
FEEDING ANOTHER WAVE THAT IS ITS MIRROR IMAGE IN THE ARAB AND
ISLAMIC WORLD. SO WHAT WILL OUR LEADERS DO? SINCE BUSH FEELS
THAT THEIR REGIMES ARE UNDEMOCRATIC AND SHOULD REFORM, IN ORDER
TO STOP BREEDING TERRORISM, LET THEM PICK UP THE CHALLENGE,
INSTEAD OF PLEADING FOR UNDERSTANDING. LET THEM ALLOW DEMOCRACY
TO HAVE ITS WORD; AND SINCE WE NEED TO PUT UP WITH WHATEVER
AMERICAN BALLOTS PRODUCE, LET AMERICA DO THE SAME. WE DO NOT
EXPECT A POSITIVE RESPONSE TO THIS ADVICE, WHICH WILL BE ALL THE
WORSE BECAUSE THE REGIMES WILL BE AL THE MORE STUCK BETWEEN AN
ARROGANT AMERICAN POLICY AND AN ANGRY AND FRUSTRATED PUBLIC
OPINION. THE RESULTS OF FOUR YEARS OF THIS SITUATION MAY BE
UNPREDICTABLE.

-- BUSH'S VICTORY AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE

MOHAMMAD ABOU RUMMAN WROTE IN THE DAILY AL-GHAD: "WHAT WE AS
MUSLIMS CAN FEEL IN THE REELECTION OF BUSH AND ITS EFFECT ON
AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY IS THE DOMINANCE OF THE CULTURAL AND
RELIGIOUS ASPECT IN THE NEO-CONSERVATIVES' VISION AND
ORIENTATION. THIS WAS POINTED OUT RECENTLY BY BRZEZINSKI WHO
DESCRIBED BUSH AND HIS TEAM AS APPEARING TO SEEK TO LEAD A HOLY
INTERNATIONAL ALLIANCE AGAINST ISLAM, AND TO PORTRAY THE WARS
AGAINST MUSLIM STATES AS CRUSADES. THIS STATE OF AFFAIRS IS NOT
SURPRISING, GIVEN THAT THE IDEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL MENTORS OF
THE NEO-CONSERVATIVES ARE PEOPLE SUCH AS BERNARD LOUIS, SAMUEL
HUNTINGTON, AND OTHERS WITH EXTREMIST VISIONS REGARDING ISLAM."

-- PRESIDENT BUSH AND THE SOLUTION ON THE PALESTINIAN FRONT

HUSSEIN ABOU RUMMAN WROTE IN THE PRO-GOVERNMENT DAILY AL-RAI ON
NOVEMBER 9: "THERE IS NO ROOM TO BANK ON THE AMERICANS OR EVEN
THE EUROPEANS TO HELP US ACHIEVE PEACE ON THE PALESTINIAN FRONT.
THE WHITE HOUSE WILL IMMERSE ITSELF IN THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI
CONFLICT GIVING THE IMPRESSION THAT IT HAS A SPECIFIC AGENDA OF
ITS OWN, WHICH WOULD BE INACCURATE SINCE IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY
SHARON'S PLAN FOR A UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL, WHICH HE SEES AS THE
END OF THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE, NOT THE START OF THE SOLUTION."

-- WHY WE ARE HAPPY WITH BUSH'S VICTORY AND KERRY'S DEFEAT

YASSER ZA'ATREH WROTE IN THE ISLAMIST WEEKLY AS-SABEEL ON
NOVEMBER 9: "WHAT WE SHOULD REMEMBER IS THAT AN ENEMY WHO IS
STUPID, WHO MAKES MANY MISTAKES, AND WHO MIRES HIS COUNTRY IN
MANY ADVENTURES HERE AND THERE THAT DISSIPATE ITS POWER, IS
PREFERABLE TO A WISE ENEMY WHO PLAYS THE GAME INTELLIGENTLY.
THIS IS WHY WE PREFERRED BUSH AND WHY WE ARE HAPPY THAT HE WON,
WITH A CLEAR VICTORY, SO THAT HE MAY BE MORE CONFIDENT AS HE
PERSISTS IN HIS POLICIES AND HIS ERRORS."