THE DEPUTY SECRETARY'S VISIT TO JORDAN: IRAQ,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005508

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2014
TAGS: PREL ECON PTER KPAL ASEC US JO
SUBJECT: THE DEPUTY SECRETARY'S VISIT TO JORDAN: IRAQ,
PEACE PROCESS, AND PENDING ASSISTANCE ISSUES

REF: AMMAN 5467

Classified By: DCM DAVID Hale for reasons 1.5 (b) (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) King Abdullah has sought to portray Jordan (and
himself) as both a peacemaker and deal-maker in the Middle
East. The popular mood, however, is uneven: the invasion of
Iraq and perceived stronger pro-Israel tilt in U.S. policy
have shaken Jordanian popular confidence in the moral
underpinning of U.S. policy. The GOJ is relieved at the
choice of Iyad Allawi as Iraqi PM and will continue its
strong support to rebuild Iraq, but has serious concerns
about the security situation and the newly resurgent Shia
population. As always, the number one topic remains the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with the Jordanian mood
swinging optimistic or pessimistic in tandem with movement on
the peace process. The King supports Gaza disengagement, but
will ask that the U.S. continue to insist that it be part of
the roadmap. As he has done on the Hill, the King will ask
for more military assistance to cover border security,
explaining his needs in terms of newly emerging regional
threats from Syria, Iraq, and looming Saudi instability. END
SUMMARY.

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GAZA DISENGAGEMENT OK IF PART OF THE ROADMAP
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2. (C) The Palestinian-Israeli conflict remains at the top
of the agenda for most Jordanians, who believe both that U.S.
policy is tilted towards Israel and that only the U.S. can
move the process toward resolution. The King recognizes that
Gaza disengagement could jump-start the process, but insists
that it be part of the roadmap and not come at the expense of
West Bank disengagement. He is willing to train Palestinian
security forces for the West Bank, but does not want to play
as extensive a role there as Egypt is likely to play in Gaza.
The King will press for concrete U.S. steps to rein in
Israeli military actions, particularly home demolitions, the
tight closure of the West Bank and Gaza, and targeted
killings. There is no love lost for Arafat, who the King
views as an obstacle to peace that he must nonetheless deal
with.

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CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR IRAQ
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3. (C) The King has argued for some time that Iraq needs a
strong leader, and believes that Iyad Allawi may be that man
-- at least in the short term. He remains concerned,
however, over continuing instability and Iraqi Sunni
political isolation, and believes the IIG and Iraqi military
and security forces are not yet capable of restoring order.
The King will continue his strong support of Iraq
reconstruction, including police and military training.
Military training continues on a small scale (with Air Force
personnel and special forces only) until the Jordanians and
Iraqis can come to an agreement on continuing the program.
Police training continues apace, with 3,411 recruits trained
so far. However, the King (and recent congressional
visitors) have expressed concern about the length of the
eight-week course, the vetting of recruits, and follow-up on
officers once they return to Iraq after graduation. The
current CPA-Jordan police training agreement expired June 30.
The King told the Ambassador on July 4 that he wanted a
quick resolution on outstanding issues related to the text of
a new agreement, and we expect to finalize it before you
arrive.

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IRAQI TRADE DEBT TO JORDAN
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4. (C) Jordan has transferred to the Development Fund for
Iraq (DFI) a total of USD 250 million of frozen Iraqi assets,
more that any country except the U.S. The GOJ has also been
trying -- thus far unsuccessfully -- to get Iraqi officials
to address USD 1.3 billion in Iraq commercial debt to the
Central Bank of Jordan resulting from the financing of
bilateral Jordan-Iraq trade in the 1980's and 1990's.

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REFORM EFFORTS CHUG ALONG
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5. (C) The King has led reform in Jordan and the region, as
much out of his calculus that reform is vital for this poor
and youth-heavy country as in response to USG pressure.
While insisting that reform not be imposed from the outside,
the King has embraced the Broader Middle East and North
Africa (BMENA) initiative and attended the Sea Island Summit.
However, the King argues that G-8 and/or NATO intervention
to support reform will have legitimacy for the Arab world
only if it is not seen as an attack on Islam and if its
geographic scope is limited to Arab countries. He may also
argue that the region will not embrace reform without
parallel progress on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

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FMF REQUESTS AND BORDER SECURITY
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6. (S) The King has recently asked USG and congressional
visitors for USD 400 million in additional FMF assistance
(for more detail on outstanding military assistance issues,
see ref). The King has pledged that this money would not go
to purchase "more planes or tanks," but rather to protect
Jordan from new regional threats. The GOJ, for example, has
intercepted an increasing number of shipments of weapons and
explosives from Syria -- some linked to a Zarqawi/al-Qaeda
plot to target the GOJ and U.S. Embassy. There is also worry
about instability in Iraq and the political rise of militant
Shia groups in the south. Finally, there is new concern over
security in Saudi Arabia, and a fear that Saudi extremists --
pushed out by Saudi counter measures -- might try to slip
into Jordan across the long, virtually unprotected border.

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SECURITY CONCERNS UNDERPIN IT ALL
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7. (C) Recent attacks in the region and a planned
Zarqawi/al-Qaeda attack in Jordan thwarted this spring have
highlighted Jordan's role -- and stake -- in the war on
terrorism. The threat of attack against American and GOJ
interests remains high. Jordanians are increasingly on edge
now that the terrorists have demonstrated their willingness
to target fellow Arabs and Muslims. The King deserves our
thanks for Jordan's continuing close cooperation with us
against terrorism.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at

http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/

or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET
home page.
GNEHM