VISITING IMF TEAM IMPRESSED BY THE STATE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004330

SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR A. DEMOPULOS
CPA FOR J. VARDAMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2014
TAGS: EFIN ETTC EAID IZ JO
SUBJECT: VISITING IMF TEAM IMPRESSED BY THE STATE OF
JORDAN'S ECONOMY

Classified By: AMB: EGNEHM,JR. for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: At the end of a two-week mission, a
visiting IMF team tallied a long list of indicators
reflecting the current strength of Jordan's economy.
Economic growth continues to build momentum and the IMF has
increased its estimate for real growth in Jordan's GDP this
year to 5.5%. Finance Minister Mohammad Abu Hammour
continues to impress the IMF with his control over government
spending and in his success in bringing all types of spending
under the government budget for 2005. In addition, tax
administration continues to improve, with higher tax revenues
targeted for deficit reduction and debt repayments. The IMF
team reported that Abu Hammour would be seeking to raise
Jordan's debt swap limits with the Paris Club when he visits
Paris in June. The IMF team's only concern regarding
Jordan's economic health was how long Minister Hammour would
be able to fend off demands for increased spending,
particularly from Planning Minister Bassem Awadallah.


2. (C) Monetary policy, too, goes well, with a current
account surplus equivalent to 5% of GDP. Inflation
registered 3.6% in April but, excluding the GST increase and
the fuel price rises that affected the April figures, the
underlying rate of inflation remains at 2%. Regarding the
$1.3 billion in Central Bank of Jordan claims on Iraq, the
IMF team said such claims were not normally defined as
government-to-government debt. (NOTE: The IMF team will be
submitting the findings of this mission in its semi-annual
report to the IMF on Jordan. END NOTE.) END SUMMARY.

--------------
FISCAL POLICY GOING WELL
--------------


3. (C) At the close of their two-week mission to Jordan,
visiting IMF officials reported to E/COUNS their satisfaction
with the state of Jordan's economy. The 1st quarter of 2004
registered real growth of 7-8%, driven largely by a surge in
exports. Credit growth was also up by 4.9%, helping fuel the
economic expansion. Although Jordan's economy is unlikely to
continue the high growth rate of the 1st quarter, the IMF is
already revising upwards its estimated growth for the year
for Jordan from 5% to 5.5%.


4. (C) The IMF team continues to be very impressed by
Jordan's Finance Minister Mohammad Abu Hammour. The IMF
welcomed the GOJ's decision in March to raise the GST from
13% to 16%, higher than the IMF's request for a rise to 15%.
The GST increase and the average 9% increase in fuel prices,
both of which took place in April, combined with improvements
in tax administration to produce a healthy fiscal picture.
The Finance Ministry has agreed to apply increased tax
revenues to reducing the deficit and/or paying down debt.
(NOTE: One downside of the increase in fuel prices for the
government is that the government now owes the Zarqa refinery
JD 120 million (($ 168 million)) for additional subsidies it
must pay the refinery. END NOTE.)


5. (C) The main concern of the team in the area of fiscal
policy was whether Abu Hammour would be able to continue his
tight control over government spending. The team was
particularly concerned about Abu Hammour's ability to hold
off spending requests from Planning Minister Bassem
Awadallah. However, the team was reassured by the fact that
Abu Hammour had been successful in consolidating the budget
and bringing all government spending under next year's
budget. (COMMENT: Previously, Planning Minister Awadallah
had controlled an off-budget account which had included USAID
cash transfer funds. According to the IMF, under the new
consolidated budget, additional cash transfers from the U.S.
to Jordan would then generate the need for a supplemental
allocation to spend those funds, as occurs in the U.S. This
would give the Finance Ministry tighter, more comprehensive
control over government spending. END COMMENT.)

--------------
THE MONETARY PICTURE
--------------


6. (C) The monetary picture is also good. The current
account registered a surplus equivalent to 5% of GDP. The
inflation rate was up 3.6% in April but this reflected the
fuel price increases and the increase in the GST. The IMF
estimates the underlying rate of inflation at only 2%. If
the U.S. raises interest rates in the coming months, Jordan's
interest rates will also rise. However, provided the
increases are gradual, the effect on Jordan's economy should
be muted, particularly if inflation remains under control.


7. (C) In terms of exchange rates, the Jordanian government
told the IMF that it has no current plans to float the
Jordanian dinar. The government fears that the continued
uncertainty in Iraq could cause too much volatility for a JD
without its dollar peg.

--------------
DEBT SITUATION ALSO LOOKING UP
--------------


8. (C) Abu Hammour told the IMF that he wanted to raise
Jordan's debt swap limits with the Paris Club. He will lodge
the request with the Paris Club during a visit to Paris in
June. He will seek an increase in the limits from 30% to
40%. According to the IMF, this would be the first time any
country has requested such an increase.


9. (C) The IMF team estimated Jordan's debt/GDP ratio for
2004 at 92.7%. This presumes that Jordan continues to follow
its privatization schedule and includes JD 12 million ($16.8
million) in savings from paying off Jordan's Brady bonds
early.

--------------
IRAQ ISSUES
--------------


10. (C) When asked about the impact of the Central Bank of
Jordan's (CBJ) $1.3 billion claim on Iraq, the IMF team said
that if the CBJ were forced to write it off, the CBJ would
have to be re-capitalized immediately. This would have a
severe impact on Jordan's debt picture. However, the IMF
officials said that this type of account would not normally
be defined as government-to-government debt. As a result, it
should not be part of any debt write-offs negotiated for the
new Iraqi government.

--------------
SAUDI OIL
--------------


11. (C) The IMF team said that the GOJ had confirmed that
the Saudi government had finalized its offer of a grant of
50,000 barrels of oil per day to Jordan. However, the
assessment of the IMF was that the grant would barely offset
the much higher oil costs for the Jordanian government due to
the currently high level of oil prices.

GNEHM