IRAQIS IN JORDAN FEAR JUNE 30 HANDOVER WILL RESULT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004236

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014
TAGS: PREL PHUM IZ JO
SUBJECT: IRAQIS IN JORDAN FEAR JUNE 30 HANDOVER WILL RESULT
IN MORE VIOLENCE

Classified By: Ambassador Edward Gnehm for reasons 1.5(b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: There are Iraqis in Jordan who fear that the
June 30 transfer of authority to the Iraqi Interim Government
(IIG) will result in an escalation of violence, and support
the presence of coalition forces until a stable government is
in place. END SUMMARY.

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JUNE 30 TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY
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2. (C) A group of Iraqis residing in Jordan told PolOff May
23 that they do not believe the June 30 transfer of authority
to the Iraq Interim Government (IIG) will be real, and fear
that insurgents will increase their efforts to cause
instability if coalition forces withdraw or appear to have
only a limited role. The group said that they had no
immediate plans to return to Iraq due to the violence, poor
security and job situation there, despite claims of working
excessive hours in Jordan for low wages and cramped living
conditions. They asserted that many Iraqis in Jordan do not
want coalition forces to leave Iraq and hope that they will
stay until a real Iraqi government can govern on its own.
The group did not criticize the coalition and asserted that
most Iraqis in Jordan and Iraq are happy that Saddam Hussein
is no longer in power.

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JANUARY 2005 ELECTIONS
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3. (C) The group feared that the planned elections in January
2005 may result in a government just as oppressive as the
Saddam Hussein regime. They worried that elections in Iraq
would lead to an increase in instability as the election
losers would turn to violence to assume power. Many Iraqis,
they asserted, do not understand democratic elections to
establish authority and power; only the type of rule
demonstrated under Saddam Hussein.

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CHALABI'S FUTURE ROLE
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4. (C) The group said that INC leader Ahmad Chalabi is hoping
for the same level of publicity and influence as Shia upstart
Moqtada Al-Sadr to secure a future position of power in the
Iraqi government. Many Iraqis in Jordan and Iraq, they
claimed, hold a negative view of Chalabi and question his
ability to govern given his more than 25 years in exile. The
group characterized Chalabi as "crooked"; a man who does not
care for the welfare of common Iraqis, only for power. They
hoped that he will not secure a position in the IIG.

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IRAQI LIVING CONDITIONS IN JORDAN
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5. (C) Many of the illegal Iraqis in Jordan, they asserted,
live in small, tight communities. They said that
unemployment among illegal Iraqis is high. Those who have
jobs are usually employed on a monthly contract, working long
hours for a monthly income averaging around 150 USD. This
type of employment, they claimed, is outside the purview of
Jordanian authorities. Illegal Iraqis frequently combine
households with relatives or other Iraqis to reduce rental
costs. They also claimed that many Iraqis do not go out at
night for fear of detention and deportation by Jordanian
police (although the Embassy has heard of very few cases of
deportation of illegal Iraqis).

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COMMENT
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6. (C) The group comprised four unrelated individuals from
different backgrounds--one married Kurdish man from
Sulaymaniyeh, one married Turkmani woman from Erbil, one
Christian of mixed Iraqi and Armenian background from
Baghdad, and a single Sunni Muslim man from Baghdad. All
four individuals left Iraq due to discrimination or
persecution under Saddam Hussein. The single Muslim man
claimed to have fled to Jordan with his mother four years ago
after learning that his father, a government employee, had
"disappeared". The married Kurdish man, married Turkmani
woman, and single woman of Armenian background claimed
leaving Iraq within the last five years due to lack of job
opportunities based on ethnicity, not out of fear of
persecution. Three of the four claimed to have traveled to
Iraq in the past year hoping to find work, characterizing how
rumors describing Iraq as "just like Kuwait" had influenced
them to travel to Iraq. Each said cautiously that it was not
very difficult to return to Jordan. Two of the group claimed
having a higher-education background. Three claimed to live
in combined households, maintaining low wage work as
hairstylist, grocer assistant, and small restaurant owner.
Despite the group's complaints of long work hours, low wages,
cramped living conditions and problems with public schools,
all were resolved to stay in Jordan until the employment and
security situation in Iraq improves. Iraqis in Jordan, they
asserted, rely on the word of relatives in Iraq and Iraqis
coming into Jordan illegally for their news, not the media.
They believed that the U.S. would make good on its promises
of assistance to Iraq, but did not believe this assistance
would improve conditions in Iraq in the near term.


7. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/
or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET
home page.

GNEHM