KUFUOR AND NPP STILL LEAD IN GHANA'S ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002401 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL GH SUBJECT: KUFUOR AND NPP STILL LEAD IN GHANA'S ELECTION REF: A. A) ACCRA 7444 B) ACCRA 2366 ¶B. C) ACCRA 2367 D)ACCRA 2390 Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: As of 4:30 pm on December 9, with 185 of 230 constituency results reported, President Kufuor of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) remains in the lead in Ghana's December 7 election. The NPP has won 114 parliamentary seats. The Electoral Commission is expected to officially declare a winner by late December 9 or early December 10. The NDC has challenged JoyFM radio station's decision to call the election for Kufuor. Despite former President Rawlings' reported attack on the fairness of the election, NDC leader Mills is likely to concede defeat peacefully. We and several other missions will issue a statement of support for this election once results are final. End summary. Updated Results -------------- ¶2. (U) JoyFM has already called the presidential race for President Kufuor. However, the opposition NDC disputes this finding. As of 4:30 pm local time, the Electoral Commission had not announced a final winner. JoyFM reports the following results, based on counting at 185 of a total of 230 constituencies: Presidential -------------- Candidate Percentage Vote John Kufuor (NPP) 54.2 John Evans Atta Mills (NDC) 43.0 Edward Mahama (PNC) 1.84 George Aggudey (CPP) 0.86 Parliamentary -------------- (185 of total 230 seats contested) Party Number of Seats Won As of NPP 114 NDC 68 PNC 4 CPP 1 Police Perspective on Violence -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In a meeting December 8, Ghana's Deputy Inspector General of Police Patrick Achaempong told PolChief that he was pleased there was little violence during the election. He clarified that there was one incident of significant violence on the eve of the election and three serious incidents of violence on election day, resulting in a total of six deaths. On December 6, false rumors spread in one constituency of the Volta region that the Regional Minister and his campaign manager were thumb printing ballots in the campaign manager's house. In response, a mob vandalized the house. A supporter of the local independent candidate was killed and three others injured (one of whom later died from his injury). Achaempong confirmed that two people were killed on election day in Tolon, near Tamale, although he was not clear whether they died from election-related violence or from an ethnic dispute. The Electoral Commission office in Tolon was torched. In the nearby Kumbungu constituency on December 7, a group of motorcycling NPP supporters argued that minors were being allowed to vote at one polling station. One of them shot to death an NDC supporter and was subsequently lynched by a local crowd, reportedly supporters of the NDC. Achaempong also confirmed media reports of a shooting in Bawku town, Upper East region, when a parliamentarian initially could not find her name on the register. An unknown person shot one of her two soldier bodyguards, slightly injuring him. ¶4. (SBU) Achaempong thought it unlikely there would be significant violence in the post-election period, especially since it appears there will be no second round of voting. Tamale remains somewhat tense. NDC and NPP supporters in Tamale fired shots into the air last night, either out of jubilation or frustration. A UNDP contact told PolChief he saw around 500 NDC supporters driving through Tamale on the evening of December 8. There were a few other incidents of shots being fired with no injuries on election day in the Tamale area. An Electoral Commission office was burnt down in Brong Ahafo region on December 8. There could be other minor incidents of election-related violence in the coming few days. Statements from Foreign Missions -------------- ¶5. (U) We plan to issue a congratulatory statement in support of this election once the results are final. The EU and Canada are preparing similar statements. The UNDP plans to issue an informal election report to the Electoral Commission. Some independent British Members of Parliament who observed the election may also issue statements. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) At this point, Kufuor looks likely to win a first round victory. The NPP has already improved its position in parliament (from 103 to 114). The NPP did well in Central, Western, Ashanti, Eastern, and Brong Ahafo regions, while the NDC swept Upper East, Upper West, Volta and Northern regions. We will report with more analysis of the results on December ¶10. ¶7. (C) NDC leader and former president J.J. Rawlings has left Ghana for a previous engagement in Congo Brazzaville. On December 8, his Public Affairs Director issued a statement that Rawlings questioned the election results and believed "the NPP was hell-bent on stealing the 2004 elections by manipulating its outcome through diverse, fraudulent and corrupt means." It is not clear whether Rawlings authorized this statement, although it tracks with statements he made before the election. The NDC has urged patience until the EC declares certified results. Despite Rawlings' alleged ranting, the size of the victory and the generally peaceful, free manner of the election (with thousands of domestic observers and intense media scrutiny) leave little room for the NDC to dispute the overall outcome. Our statement and those of other foreign missions will also reinforce Ghana's election outcome. NDC candidate Mills, assuming he loses, will likely concede defeat peacefully. YATES