GHANA ELECTION ANALYSIS: NPP LIKELY TO WIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002367

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2014
TAGS: GH PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: GHANA ELECTION ANALYSIS: NPP LIKELY TO WIN


Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e.


1. (C) Summary: The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is
likely to win Ghana's December 7 parliamentary and
presidential election. The NPP is well-positioned in its
traditional strongholds, the heavily populated Ashanti and
Eastern regions (with 67 combined constituencies out of a
total of 230.) The NPP is spending heavily and highlights
its record of peace and economic growth. The main opposition
party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC),is strong in
the Volta, Northern, Upper West and Upper East regions, which
together have 58 constituencies. Greater Accra, Brong Ahafo,
Central and Western regions are close races, reportedly with
large numbers of undecided voters. The NDC is focusing on
the alleged poor performance of the NPP government, but is
handicapped by poor finances and a legacy of human rights
abuses. The election outcome will reflect a mix of
ethnicity, performance, personality, and other variables.
End summary.

NPP Strongholds
--------------


2. (C) The Ashanti region, with 39 parliamentary
constituencies, is President Kufuor's home territory and the
NPP heartland. The NPP was founded in Ashanti and won 80
percent of presidential votes in the 2000 run-off election.
The party has been actively spreading money, food and other
resources around the region to cement its support, while
highlighting its performance in the area over the past four
years. Nonetheless, the NPP is unlikely to do as well as in

2000. The NDC will probably make small inroads, capitalizing
on areas of discontent about government performance and
support from pockets of non-Ashantis living in the region.
The Eastern region, with 28 constituencies, is also a
traditional NPP stronghold. Five out of 19 Cabinet officials
come from Eastern region, including the Finance and Foreign
Ministers.


NDC's Base in the North and East
--------------


3. (C) The NDC's traditional vote bank has been in the
Volta region (22 constituencies),where it won 89 percent of
the presidential vote in 2000. The hostile reception
President Kufuor received while campaigning in Volta region
suggests this largely Ewe area, home to former President JJ
Rawlings, still strongly distrusts the Ashanti-dominated NPP.


4. (C) The NDC should also win in the Northern region (26
constituencies),as well as the Upper West (10 seats) and
Upper East (13 seats). The NDC won narrowly in the Northern
region in 2000. However, perceptions of NPP complicity in
and/or slowness to seek justice for, the 2002 murder of the
Ya Na (the Dagbon Andani Chief) will likely hurt the NPP in
this election, even with the recent, conciliatory visit to
the area by President Kufuor. Strong NPP candidates and
inroads by other parties could slightly erode the NDC's hold
on the Upper East, which tipped strongly in the NDC's favor
in 2000.

Four Swing Regions
--------------


5. (C) The Greater Accra (27 constituencies),Brong Ahafo
(24),Central (19) and Western (22) regions are more
difficult to call, with large number of reportedly undecided
voters and a mixed historical voting record. In Greater
Accra, the NPP won massively in 2000 but lost in 1996.
Economic hardships in this predominantly urban area could
hurt the NPP.


6. (C) In Central region, the NPP won decisively in 2000
and is confident that high cocoa prices and public works in
the region will bring a repeat victory. However, the NDC has
been campaigning hard in this region, presidential candidate
Atta Mills' home turf.


7. (C) The NPP won 62 percent of the presidential ballots
in Western region in 2000, with a more even match in
parliamentary seats. The NPP appears better organized in the
region and is spending heavily to repeat their victory.
While anti-incumbency sentiment could reduce the NPP's
winning margin in the presidential race, it is likely to gain
some parliamentary seats.


8. (C) Brong Ahafo has traditionally been split between the
NDC and NPP. The NPP should do well in cocoa and timber
areas, while the NDC should win in areas with settlers from
other regions. The NPP has been spending heavily in this
region and hopes its 60 percent win in the 2000 presidential
race will be repeated.

The Big Picture
--------------


9. (C) The NDC campaign has been slow to build momentum.
Its vice presidential candidate was knocked out of
campaigning after being seriously injured in a car accident.
However, the party has recently energized a door-to-door
campaign, stressing Kufuor's alleged failure to fulfill
promises. The NDC has a solid network of party workers but
its finances are tight, and many voters are reportedly
uncomfortable with the human rights and economic legacy of
former PNDC president JJ Rawlings. Fears about the NDC may
be reinforced by the final report of the National
Reconciliation Commission (parts of which were leaked to the
media),linking Rawlings to the 1982 murder of three High
Court judges and a retired army officer.


10. (C) The NPP has the benefits and handicaps of
incumbency. It is better organized and financed, has greater
access to the media, and has been aggressive at strategically
distributing money, goods, and projects for electoral gain.
However, it has suffered from internal squabbles and faces
criticism about some unfulfilled promises. According to a
nationwide opinion poll conducted in June, 2004 by the
National Commission for Civic Education, the top voter
concerns (in rank order) are: educational standards, access
to affordable health care, the high cost of living, and
unemployment. Despite macroeconomic achievements the NPP has
highlighted in campaign ads, many of our contacts believe
most Ghanaians do not feel economically better off than four
years ago. These voters may still vote NPP, our contacts
concede, because they are not ready to go back to NDC rule.


Comment
--------------


11. (C) While there are no opinion polls, campaign 2004
appears to be a competitive match between the NDC (which
currently has 89 parliamentary seats) and the NPP (with 103
seats). At play are a mix of ethnicity, performance,
personality, legacy, and other factors. The NPP enjoys an
overwhelming advantage in distributing resources and using
the benefits of incumbency. It also benefits from the fears
still conjured by the NDC. One Ghanaian told PolChief she
was switching her vote from NDC to NPP out of disgust for
Rawlings' recent alleged assault on a District Chief
Executive in Upper East.


12. (C) We believe the NPP will do well in both the
parliamentary and presidential elections. The NPP is likely
to win a first round victory in the presidential race (it
needs to win 50 percent of votes, plus one ballot, to prevent
a second round run-off). In 2000, the polling went to a
second round because five small parties garnered a combined 7
percent of the popular vote, leaving the NDC with 44.5
percent and the NPP with 48.1 percent of the total tally.
This year, only two small parties are competing with the NDC
and NPP and neither has gained much traction in the
presidential race. The Convention Peoples Party (CPP) could
gain several parliamentary seats (it currently has one),
while the People's National Convention party (PNC) is
unlikely to improve on its current three seats.
YATES