MAY 3 RALLY ORGANIZERS DEFY ARREST

UNCLAS ABUJA 000773 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI SUBJECT: MAY 3 RALLY ORGANIZERS DEFY ARREST REF: ABUJA 763 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR PUBLICATION ON THE INTERNET OR INTRANET. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The detention of at least one CNPP organizer and attempts to detain others are the latest GON efforts to forestall a public demonstration against President Obasanjo scheduled for 3 May. Rally organizers say they are ready to move ahead, "regardless of the risk." The latest we hear from the GON is that it may declare Monday May 3 a public holiday (as the existing May 1 public holiday falls on a Saturday) and urge Nigerians to stay at home. END SUMMARY. MISSING PERSONS ¶2. (SBU) The GON says the planned march is illegal, and State Security Service (SSS) detained National Coordinator for Mass Mobilization for the Conference of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP) Buba Galadima on April 29. His location is unknown at this time, but he is likely being held at SSS Headquarters in Abuja. Various sources say that at least 7 other attempted arrests failed in Port Harcourt, Enugu, Kaduna and Abuja because security personnel could not find the individuals. CNPP General Secretary Maxi Okwu missed a meeting at the British High Commission in Abuja on April 30, and the British do not know whether he has been detained or gone into hiding. ¶3. (SBU) Contacts with Chukwuemeka Ojukwu and Muhammadu Buhari tell us attempts were made to place the two 2003 presidential election opponents of Obasanjo under "house arrest" on the evening of April 29. SSS agents visited Ojukwu's residence in Enugu and advised his guards that he should "remain in the house until further notice." One contact says Ojukwu's guards responded by chasing the SSS men from the neighborhood. Ojukwu left the house and is reportedly en route to Abuja. SSS agents visited Buhari's house in Katsina that same evening. Buhari was not at home, and when other agents called on his house in Dauru with the same advice, found Buhari had already departed. DEFIANT ¶4. (SBU) CNPP Chairman Balarabe Musa told a radio station in Abia State on April 30 that the rally will go ahead. He and our contacts close to Buhari and Ojukwu still believed the two opposition leaders will try to participate in the rally. One contact said the arrest of Galadima will "only provoke a stronger response from Nigerians." ¶5. (SBU) Embassy contacts in Abuja tell us the GON has decided to announce that 3 May will be a public holiday. One source claims "people will be told to stay at home for the holiday." ROBERTS